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Down The Rabbit Hole-Inflation @17 year high and a 10 year low Simultaneously

Gotta Love Peter Schiff-Fuzzy Government Numbers

Recession Definition:"A period of general economic decline; specifically, a decline in GDP for two or more consecutive quarters".

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September 5, 2008

In recent months, investors have been unjustly chastised for their lack of consistency. In truth, they have an unblemished record of drawing the wrong conclusions. Last week’s 2nd quarter GDP report provides the freshest evidence of market cluelessness.

In its report, the Commerce Department stunned economy watchers by showing a 3.3% annualized increase in 2nd Quarter GDP. The robust growth apparently wrong-footed those expecting further recessionary signals, lent further strength to the current dollar rally, and encouraged previously cautious investors to take another look at U.S. stocks. The strong number also bolstered claims by the Bush administration and the McCain campaign that a recession is primarily a psychological phenomenon. These conclusions would be at least quasi-logical if they were not based on a complete misreading of the report.

Without raising an eyebrow on Wall Street or in the press, the GDP deflator, used in the report to downwardly adjust GDP to account for inflation, was shown at just 1.2% annualized.... the lowest deflator in ten years. In other words, to arrive at a 3.3% growth rate, the government assumed that inflation is running at a ten-year low! In contrast, the latest reading on consumer prices (CPI) in the second quarter shows year-on-year inflation running at a 5.6% rate, a seventeen-year high! In fact, for the second quarter, the same time period measured by the GDP deflator, prices actually rose at an even faster pace of 8.0% annualized. How can it be that inflation is simultaneously running at a seventeen-year high and a ten-year low? Welcome to the Alice in Wonderland world of government statistics.

You would think that this statistical bombshell would raise the hackles of the press. Think again. Not only did the hawk-eyed media completely miss the story last week, they have totally ignored our subsequent attempts to show them the light (with the exception of the N.Y. Post’s John Crudele – who has long suspected a ruse). Although none of the reporters we spoke with could explain why inflation could run at a 10 year low and a 17 year high at the same time, they did not deem the anomaly sufficiently noteworthy. Having been ignored by reporters, I then tried the opinion pages. Unfortunately the piece that we prepared on the subject was rejected this week by all the leading national newspapers.

Reporter Michael Mandel did note the head scratcher on a Businessweek blog posting last Friday. As a partial explanation he pointed out the CPI measures the prices of what we buy, and the GDP deflator measures the prices of what we make. Although this certainly sheds some light, it offers no real explanation. Excluding imports and exports, both measures are determined by the same forces, and should move in relative harmony. If anything, the costs of what we make should be outpacing the costs of what we buy. Producer prices are now rising faster than consumer prices (the latest annual reading of the Producer Price Index ‘PPI’ being 13.2% annualized from the 2nd quarter), which helps explain why corporate profits have fallen drastically. In addition, from July 2007 through July 2008 (the latest data available) import and export prices have risen 21.6% and 10.2% respectively. In other words, no matter what numbers you use, the 1.2% GDP deflator simply doesn’t add up.

I have often argued that government statics are dubious, particularly those related to inflation. But here is an example where they are not even consistent! If we simply use second quarter CPI to adjust nominal second quarter GDP for inflation, the number would have registered a 3.5% annualized decline.

Such horrific GDP numbers are much more consistent with the anecdotal recession evidence that Wall Street and Washington want us to ignore (confirmed by today’s weak jobs report which included the unemployment rate spiking to 6.1%, a five-year high). However, with Orwellian propaganda, our government fabricates GDP growth out of thin air without the smoke and mirrors traditionally required for such an elaborate illusion. All that is required is to put out ludicrous statistics and hope no one notices. Given that this strategy appears to be working, expect future government numbers to get even more outrageous. After all, if they can get away with this, they can likely get away with anything.

Investors relying on this data and reacting to the global economic slowdown by buying dollars and other U.S. based assets while selling gold, commodities, and foreign assets, are jumping out of the frying pan right into the fire. My guess is that it will not be much longer before they feel the heat.

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I wonder if they have an end-game date in mind.

They must know they cannot keep up the deception indefinitely and that they must gain what advantage they can before the SHTF. When do they expect the balancing act to fail and what are they doing in the interim to accumulate the greatest wealth and power? What do they plan to do with that wealth and power when the world economy comes crashing down? Do they expect to own all the land, all the industries, all the financial institutions, what? What are their plans for those who lose everything? More personally, what are their plans for me if I have positioned myself to survive with some assets?

New Hampshire and Ecuador.

bump for bullshit statistics

bump for bullshit statistics

All paper money eventually returns to its real intrinsic value, zero. - Voltaire

What a great post

thanks, Susan. It's depressing but truth hurts sometimes. Peace

"We can see with our eyes, hear with our ears and feel with our touch, but we understand with our hearts."


If there's anything we've learned recently, it's that Republicans will lie, cheat and steal in order to win. Well guess what? Our government is run by Republicans!
Freedom, Prosperity and Peace

Freedom, Prosperity and Peace

lol what about the

lol what about the democrats?? they are one in the same! don't be brainwashed into beleiving its only the "republicans"

as for me and my home, we shall worship the LORD

Bump for Government Reporting

Freedom, Prosperity and Peace

Freedom, Prosperity and Peace

And the RNC and DNC try to lead us in singing....

Tell Me Lies, tell me sweet little lies, tell me lies! Ohno You know it can't be disguised.....

Libera me, let the truth break, what my fears make--Leslie Phillips

"Hence, naturally enough, my symbol for Hell is something like the bureaucracy of a police state or the office of a thoroughly nasty business concern." ~~C.S. Lewis
Love won! Deliverance from Tyranny is on the way! Col. 2:13-15

thank you for this post...

thank you for this post... all of you who paniced out of your gold and silver did so on government lies! it will only be a short time till gold will go higher then its march high of 1031.00... THE GOVERNMENT LIES FOLKS! the sooner you figure this out the better off you will be!

as for me and my home, we shall worship the LORD