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On What Day Will The Dow Go Below 5000?
Peak to trough, in the Lesser Depression, the Dow went from a high of 380ish down to 40, which is about 90%. When the 12 year low occurred in 1932, the Dow breached the 1921 low of 60ish (recalling from memory) on its way down to 40. So, even after breaking the 12 year low, it fell another 1/3. So, another 1/3 drop from 7K is below 5000. In 1932, it took about 3 months after the 12 year low was breached for the market to bottom.
So, my prediction based on that would be a Dow below 5000 by late June, perhaps timed with the large number of puts on GE that expire the 3rd week of June.
I'm short equities until we breach 5000. Then, I'm a little more hesitant to short and could see that being the bottom.
HOWEVER, this is an unprecedented situation that I think is worse than the Lesser Depression, so I would not be surprised if the bottom is much lower, perhaps 3000, or even 1400. 1400 would be a 90% decline, such as I mentioned occurred from the 29 peak to the 32 trough. I think that is a definite possibility.
At any rate, the market only breached 12 year lows twice in history prior to this week, once in 32 and again in 74. I think our present situation is much closer to 1932 and not 1974. And, there are plenty of reasons to suspect that it will be worse than the 30's.
So, my best case scenario prediction is Dow sub-5000 by June 21st.
Lisa's prediction....
was the most accurate!!!
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At first splash of Eden we race down to the sea,
standing there on Freedom's Shore....
What can be said of a people who would sell their own children into slavery, using the rational that it is to protect their freedom?
Meh. The whole market has been fluttering for weeks
It's possible we've hit bottom, but no one knows for sure until we "know" we're out of it...
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"The main thing that I learned about conspiracy theory is that conspiracy theorists actually believe in a conspiracy because that is more comforting. The truth of the world is that it is chaotic..." —Alan Moore
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"The main thing that I learned about conspiracy theory is that conspiracy theorists actually believe in a conspiracy because that is more comforting. The truth of the world is that it is chaotic..." —Alan Moore
bottom.... lmao "When
bottom.... lmao
"When governments fear the people there is liberty. When the people fear the government there is tyranny."
-Thomas Jefferson
I am more concerned about the return of my money than the return on my money. --Mark Twain
“A prudent man foreseeth the evil, and hideth himself: but the simple pass on, and are punished.” (Prov. 22:3; 27:12 KJV)
Hey McCain-----┌П┐(◣_◢)┌П┐
Read the date of this thread freejesse
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Explore Orthodox Christianity
Dow is not that important
The S&P 500 is what most peoples 401k Stock Market Fund is based on. It's down about 60% in one year. Yikes.
You can almost buy the S&P with an ounce of gold.
Um, DJI was down 6.8% today... S&P dropped 7.24%
And that is nasty.
Good God... GM dropped 31% in one day... Market Cap on GM is now $2.7B (granted they have a huge underfunded debt load, but still, I mean Apple Computer and Microsoft probably both have more than that on hand in cash, and Google certainly does).
Great Chart
which one do you want to be invested in?
http://www.goldseek.com/
shouldn't the question be what time?
instead of what day?
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At first splash of Eden we race down to the sea,
standing there on Freedom's Shore....
What can be said of a people who would sell their own children into slavery, using the rational that it is to protect their freedom?
Can't all happen on the same day... too many points to drop.
It did go below 9000 and CAN go below 8500 (it's headed there as I type) -- but they would close the market and suspend trading for the day before it hit 8000.
Not if it happens after 2:30 EST
Curbs apply to morning action.
Tomorrow?
Below 8K? Global market holiday on Monday.
Got ammo?
8,874.12 down -383.98 -4.15%
10/9/08 1522 ET
I've thought about this a lot.
It will definitely be a day ending in "y".
Badum-bum...
___________
Lisa C.
Boston Tea Party
"Time to Party Like It's 1773!"
Charles Jay 2008.
Ron Paul "Sign Wave Across the USA" -- November 5th!
Would it be crazy to bet the
Would it be crazy to bet the DOW reaching/dropping below 9000 by the end of the week? It's already at 9,447.... two days in a row of significant drops, and world wide markets falling at the same pace.....
Just go in when its on its
Just go in when its on its way back up, not while it is on its way down.
Beware... dead cats bounce!
Go look at the months (and years) after the October 1929 crash.
All the above....
by the 15th of this month.
"In the beginning of a change, the patriot is a scarce and brave man, hated and scorned. When his cause succeeds however, the timid join him, for then it costs nothing to be a patriot." … Mark Twain
I told a few people back in April that the DOW
will be sub 5,000 by the election....and I still think we will get there....
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A perfect God is not made imperfect by imperfect people.
What are you talking about?
Our economy is fine...very solid....and the bailout of crooked bankers by us Americans is going perfectly!
Or did it not turn out the way they said it would?... LOL
7000
By the end of this month.
Then we'll see a rebound.
That is my guess.
Michael
There
Will be a GET BACK IN POINT!!
888 when the Olympics and Georgian crisis began.
They love number games, so...
October 8th, 2008
Old translation of October, means the 8th month.
grant
What?? No, no - you've got
What?? No, no - you've got it all wrong.
Dow 20,000 within a few years.
The problem is that 20,000 won't be able to buy you a new car - but maybe the tires!
Anybody have an egg? I need to go pay off some bills.
...
Ah, I see you've been reading books by economists...
Dow 30,000:
http://www.amazon.com/Dow-2008-Different-This-Time/dp/189395...
Dow 36,000:
http://www.amazon.com/Dow-36-000-Strategy-Profiting/dp/06098...
heck... Dow 40,000:
http://www.amazon.com/Dow-40-000-Strategies-Profiting/dp/007...
Oh, why the heck not... Dow 100,000:
http://www.amazon.com/Dow-100-000-Fact-Fiction/dp/0735201374
What none of these guys say though is whether it will be in hyperinflated dollars or ???
Actually, I haven't read
Actually, I haven't read anything that made me think Dow 20,000. Just the fact that inflation means each dollar is worth less and cannot purchase as much, thus requiring more dollars to purchase the same. Inflate the money supply enough, they will create enough inflation to take the Dow to new heights - even though it is in lesser valued money....
I will check out those books you suggested, though.
...
It's October...stocks always tank this time of the year.
Still have >20yrs time horizon...
Time to buy soon...
Is it time yet?
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Explore Orthodox Christianity
Um... not quite
Go to finance.yahoo.com and look at the 5 year chart... and then tell me what we are seeing now isn't vastly different from what we've seen the previous four Octobers.
Fiscal year ended last 9/30...
Historically, the month after (October) usually sucks...
But then again, I don't dispute the current goings...my holdings are taking a ginormous BEATING!!
Still hanging in there though...