Rhino: The last shoe
"This was the second shoe to drop, we are nearing the bottom."
I have been hearing this for about a year from the talking heads and pundits on a plethera of financial news networks.
They said it about Countrywide, IndyMac, Bear Stearns, Lehman, Merrill Lynch, Freddie and Fannie, Black rock, Fortis, UBS, HBOS, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, etc., etc.
Now it is my turn ...
The last shoe to drop will be the insolvency of at least 10 states. You are already seeing rumblings of this in California.
If you comb through the jobless data, the only thing that has kept us from the shadows of 10% unemployment has been the tremendous growth in government jobs. They have out paced private sector jobs by a staggering rate.
There are a staggering number of municipalities and a handful of states that are on the verge of credit rating downgrades.
When and if this happens, this will be the final shoe to drop and we will be at or near a bottom.
Do not, I repeat DO NOT assume that when the first state gets downgraded and or defaults on its debt payment then we are close. This will be a long painfully drawn out process by a series of bailouts orchestrated by the PWGFM.
The first state bailout may have little strings attached. The next one may require accross the board budget cuts including layoffs. By the time the tenth state is in default, there will be unemployment rates at or above 10%, tax revenue will be a trickle and the remaining states will start to take their medicine. They will take pre-emptive measures in the form of massive budget cuts.
At this point we will be at or near the bottom.
There will be a bear market bounce before this final shoe begins to drop. Make a little money on it, but do not be fooled.
Wait for the blood in the streets.
I rarely if ever have agreed with any of Sentinel's posts, but his post today about the probability of a total collapse seems to be in the window realm of possibilities.
This is my call about the "Last shoe" and I am sticking with it.
Having said that, I am praying that I am wrong.
God Bless and good night.
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The Nevada legislature
is in session right now. There's no way they can cover the budget. The shortfall is enormous.
When does their fiscal calander start?
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WAHOR!!
http://www.dailypaul.com/node/48994
The bump may just be about over.
Come fourth quarter, look for some states to announce how bad it actually is.
Ron Paul is in perfect position right now.
If he wants to get elected he needs to error to the side of being a populist.
The focus on corporatism is key.
If he starts blaming the unions and the welfare state ...
He is done.
WAHOR!!
http://www.dailypaul.com/node/48994
If he starts blaming the unions and the welfare state ...
But these are real culprits...I have a hard time imagining him not lumping these in with corporatism.
He never goose-steps around the issues...
“The law cannot make a wicked person virtuous…God’s grace alone can accomplish such a thing.” Ron Paul - The Revolution
"These are the real culprits"
You obviously have not been listening for the last 4 years.
Does a man not have the right to his property?
Does he not have the right enter into any agreement that could or would maximize the value of his property?
The Blame should be placed on the politicians, not the rank and file union worker.
Why can't you see this?
WAHOR!!
http://www.dailypaul.com/node/48994
Almost there (10 insolvent states)
http://www.thepelicanpost.org/2011/01/11/states-on-track-for...
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"Wobbles but doesn't fall down" - weebles
Here was my list two years ago.
http://www.dailypaul.com/node/67968#comment-712665
Of course it was merely a guess and I have changed my mind on a few of them.
WAHOR!!
http://www.dailypaul.com/node/48994
Why are you bumping your own
Why are you bumping your own 2008 thread?
You're pushing it, man.
Support freedom and liberty candidates in 2012... Ron Paul... Gary Johnson...
Aww, c'mon...
Bumping your own post once every 2-3 months isn't a crime. Besides, his prediction/criteria in this post is timely and relevant...
:p
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"Wobbles but doesn't fall down" - weebles
Actually, self-bumping is a mortal offense
and makes the web gods angry... very, very angry.
According to the DP posting guidelines, you are "pushin' it"!
Support freedom and liberty candidates in 2012... Ron Paul... Gary Johnson...
bump for discussion.
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WAHOR!!
http://www.dailypaul.com/node/48994
We Americans are long overdue
We Americans are long overdue for a shakeup. We've turned into the sorts of people who think that the stuff we own, the celebrities we worship, whatever we weigh, the job we have, or should I say our "careers," or how we look following our latest plastic surgery, adds up to more than our human relationships. We've traded what matters most for what matters least.
Remember that your job, your savings, your pension, your home, even our country, only mean anything because these things provide a means and a
place to live in while we learn to love, appreciate and rediscover what lasts. In the midst of this national and personal meltdown most of us still have what matters most: people we love, a life to live, the Earth to live on. We are going to recover as a nation. This is a great country. Take heart. Meanwhile, be thankful for all that is going wrong. It gives us a shot at rediscovering what is beyond price.
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"Stand up for what you believe in. Even if you stand alone."
~ Sophie Magdalena Scholl
"Let it not be said that we did nothing."
~ Ron Paul
"You must be the change you want to see in the world."
~ Mahatma Gandhi
What does that have to do with the OP?
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WAHOR!!
http://www.dailypaul.com/node/48994
it has plenty to do with it--
I don't agree with everything "Katherine" says; I don't believe this is a great nation, but I think *she* has some valuable things to say.
*She* is just talking about what is of real value. If things collapse, there is an opportunity to see what really matters.
I appreciate your words, "Katherine".
it's hard to be awake; it's easier to dream--
Please don't assume that everyone is in
the middle of a national meltdown. I know more people who are doing just fine versus folks whose lives are in complete turmoil. Life is chaotic. By letting go of part of the illusion of control, life tends to seem more normal.
Support freedom and liberty candidates in 2012... Ron Paul... Gary Johnson...
Bumping this positive statement in
appreciation.
So, you wouldn't advise me
So, you wouldn't advise me to buy any commercial property at this time? What if I get stuck with it? What if it's a steal?
If you can cover the
If you can cover the carrying costs with the property half empty, and rents down by half, I'd say that's a steal, and I'd recommend stealing it.
Otherwise I wouldn't touch it.
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On another note, I think the Fed is creating the stock market rally by keeping the interest rates at 0%. They are making it so uncomfortable for those of us sitting in cash by keeping us at a 0% return. This is causing panic buying by some, who can't take it anymore and are jumping in with malinvestments. The shine will come off this turd soon, however.
The PWGFM has may tools at their disposal.
But their options are dwindling.
That is why I am hedging my prediction on an SKF take off with gold.
I am winning on both ends at the moment.
It looks like the fight has tilted towards the inflation side over the past 2 weeks.
Still up in the air, but we will know by January.
WAHOR!!
http://www.dailypaul.com/node/48994
WAHOR!!
http://www.dailypaul.com/node/48994
Shoes (only two per joke)
There was a joke going around when I was a kid. I think it was new at the time.
This guy is a traveling salesman, see. And he goes to a boarding house and he meets a guy at dinner. After they eat and talk, the salesman climbs the stairs to his bedroom and unpacks. After a while, he sits on the bed, takes off one shoe and drops it on the floor. It goes BUMP. He thinks, that was inconsiderate. There might be someone sleeping below me. So he places the other shoe quietly on the floor.
A couple of hours later, he is awakened by a knock on his door. It's the guy he met at dinner. He's in his wrinkled pajamas and his eyes are bloodshot.
The other guy says, "For #$%^& sake, will you please drop the other shoe?!!"
-- And the rest is histrionics.
Bump
I figured I would bump the two that I am most proud of.
Since Jefferson and Oruval has taken upon themselves to disrupt the board.
WAHOR!!
http://www.dailypaul.com/node/48994
WAHOR!!
http://www.dailypaul.com/node/48994
If you can't take the fame
don't start all your posts with your name.
Besides I saw one of your posts I wouldn't have otherwise about the Tea Party in Cincinnati as well as the bank thread with your prayers or whatever.
Find out if you have a local militia - http://www.uaff.us/
Real Patriots for 9/11 truth -- http://patriotsquestion911.com/
Bump
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The big banks aren't accepting IOUs
in CA anyways. Sign of things to come.
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Peace, Freedom and Prosperity. Not War, Welfare and Bankruptcy.
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Peace, Freedom and Prosperity. Not War, Welfare and Bankruptcy.
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I disagree respectfully ofcourse
I see what you explain Rhino as about the sign that we are 1/3 of the way to the bottom. This bubble has been building for 40 years, I think it will take 15 to get to the bottom of it as long as the government comes in and keeps propping up prices. I am no profit though.
I simply just don't see this unraveling to stop anytime in the near future, Japan hasn't ever recovered from the lost decade. We have trumped them in stupidity with bigger bail outs and stimulus.
I am not sure what is going to happen, but the bottom won't come until like Peter Schiff said...when the Dow Jones industrial average is less than the price for one oz. of gold. At that point I am not sure where we would go either...I would like to see the fed go bankrupt, but who knows what disaster looms around. We are in uncharted territory I am afraid.
I don't see these state insolvencies as a big deal. People worry about their fire department. I don't my town is protected by a volunteer fire department and we raise money for it as needed. The fire station is brand new bought and paid for with lots of new equipment. This volunteer fire department also has a very good ambulance and ems service.
If you live in a place with out a volunteer fire department, maybe you should consider moving or ensuring there will be some sort of fire protection. Molotov cocktails will be flying at some point.
The local Police officer also flys the "don't tread on me flag" So I feel pretty safe know he is on the beat!
schools...well if your kids are getting brainwashed by the state then maybe you need to find away to get them out of that.
We the people won't be inconvenienced too much, but there will be some unemployed bureaucrats.
I really don't see this getting any better until some serious generational war fare takes place, maybe even racial. The best Advice I give everybody is expect the unexpected...the unthinkable. That's mostly because our brains get indoctrinated into the bubble mania and we have forgotten what it takes to survive with out easy credit and exported inflation.
just my two cents
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?s[1][id]=GPDI
Has anyone
bought land at freedom town put together by the Granny warriors?
Bump!
Consumers Fall Behind on Loans at Record Pace
Reuters | 07 Jul 2009 | 10:55 AM ET
Soaring U.S. unemployment and a shrinking economy drove delinquencies on credit card debt and home equity loans to all-time highs in the first quarter as a record number of cash-strapped consumers fell behind on their bills.
Credit Card swipe
Delinquencies on the value of all card debt soared to a record 6.60 percent from 5.52 percent in the fourth quarter as more cardholders relied on plastic to meet day-to-day expenses, the American Bankers Association said.
Late payments on home equity loans rose to 3.52 percent from 3.03 percent, and on home equity lines of credit climbed to 1.89 percent from 1.46 percent.
A broader gauge showing late payments on eight categories of loans rose for a fourth straight quarter to a new record, edging up to 3.23 percent from 3.22 percent. That rate actually understates consumer pain because it excludes credit cards. The ABA tracks loan payments that are at least 30 days late.
Boom, Bust and Blame - The Inside Story of the Economic Crisis
"The biggest driver is job losses," ABA Chief Economist James Chessen said in an interview. "When people lose their jobs or work fewer hours, it makes it that much harder to meet their obligations. Unfortunately, we're going to see higher job losses in the next year, and I expect elevated delinquencies."
More:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/31775993
You are probably right,
But I believe they are going to start a big war with Iran and North Korea, to help take our minds off of the economy.
What will a war do for our economy?
Adam Kokesh is the Man!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fFQV2dgyXJE
Please Donate Today!
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Invest now in land, cattle,
Invest now in land, cattle, water, food, ammo, gold and silver and ride it out. I would look into HAM radio as well. Because when TSHTF, the internet is going down
You Judge A Tree By It's Fruit, NOT its Flower