Why is the dollar strengthening?
Submitted by gratefulgraft on Wed, 10/22/2008 - 08:29
Does anyone know why the dollar is gaining strength against the Euro and if this trend will continue, especially since so many have said that the dollar is going to crash? Thanks.
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Dollar Strengthening
When individuals exit all asset classes selling in mass it creates huge demand for dollars, those dollars have to come from somewhere to be credited to those accounts. Also banks are still not lending which tights up money supply at the consumer level. Paralized US money market funds exaggerated $ shortage. The rest of the world is seen as being weaker than the US. In times of crisis you have a flight to quality the US still seen as best bet in global economy. Also the reduction of $ denominated liability by forgein banks will create $ demand. Banks looking to roll over $ liability were forced to buy $ from foreign exchange markets. Once all this money from the bailouts floods the system then we will start to see inflation as more money chases after fewer goods this may not happen until late 2009. A strong $ will take away from GDP as our goods become more expensive and less competitive. In real terms the stock market losses are not so bad if you are a european holding US denominated assets seeing the 20% increase in US$
To put it simply.
When people invest their money in the stock market they choose a company that they trust to make them a profit. When people invest in Treasury bonds they are basically saying that they trust the U.S. government to use their money in any way the government sees fit. When people invest in real money they don't trust anyone except themselves to use the money in the best way they see fit. Of course we are restricted from using real money, since it has been replaced by fiat dollars, FRN back by the U.S. military and legal tender laws.
grant
Get the smoke and the light of the mirrors out of your eyes!
Opec is cutting supply because demand is down. The government is able to sell Treasury bonds to the people and foreign nations because demand is up. If demand for Treasury bonds falls, then the Federal Reserve will step in, take hold of the Treasury bonds and print FRNs.
grant
Listen to Schiff's latest podcast
A few of his employees pinch-hit for him this week, but still good stuff.
http://www.europac.net/media/PeterSchiff_10-22-2008.mp3
OPEC
OPEC is going to cut production that may put some negative pressure on the dollar.
"It is the responsibility of the patriot to protect his country from its government."
— Thomas Paine
"Endless money forms the sinews of war." - Cicero, www.freedomshift.blogspot.com
The inflation that we would
The inflation that we would normally see in the economy is happening instead in the U.S. Treasury bond market, not that Treasury bonds are going up in price but the government is taking advantage of the falling stock market and therefore issuing and selling more bonds. So they are effectively removing dollars from one market and redirecting them to where they wish. If people and countries were to dump Treasury bonds the government would be forced to sell Treasury bonds to the Federal Reserve for them to print more FRNs which would increase the number of FRNs on the market or come up with another solution (cut spending, never happen!) People and governments are investing in the U.S. government, regardless how bad the U.S. government becomes people continue to invest in it, so there is no incentive for the government to cut cost, layoff workers or sell assets, which is what many large and small business are doing today.
I would venture to say that even Hugo Chavez is invested in Treasury bonds. If people really wanted to see the size of the Federal government shrink they would be dumping Treasury bonds, but as we can see this is not happening. Countries complain about the U.S. government, but they are partners continuing to invest in the system.
grant
The strengthening of the
The strengthening of the dollar is happening at the worst time for our economy, it will further drive down certain sectors of our economy while allowing for the government to press more and more dollars into service because foreign lenders will be more inclined to buy U.S. Treasuries. In other words, it will make it much easier for the FED to inflate instead of monetizing the debt directly.
http://www.1776solution.blogspot.com
http://militantjeffersonian.com
"Men do not willingly read unpalatable truths of themselves. The People like those best who fool them most, by pandering to their vices and flattering their foibles" Raphael Semmes
If you study the patterns, I
If you study the patterns, I believe you will find that the dollar strengthens and the price of fuel drops every year right before a presidential election.
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Thanks for the great insight everyone
I attribute it to my natural talent for buy high, sell low, or put everything into one basket and crush the basket. We moved a considerable sum of money into euros at .67 and had to convert it yesterday at .77, ouch. Just like the time when we sold our ranch and moved to Colorado and auctioned off our champion Brahman cattle herd on the day the Mad Cow disease scare broke and the auction price dropped so low that they had top stop trading for the day. :) c'est la vie!
It's election time.
That is my guess...they are trying to make Americans feel proud again so when the upcoming false flag event comes up, the people will be more inclined to support any action government decides to take.
Common sense.
If you are invested in silver and gold, don't invest your FRN money in silver and gold mining companies. They produce more silver and gold making your real money, silver and gold less valuable.
grant
An investment in Treasury Bonds strengthens the central gov.
Central banks have gathered up and are holding dollars and so they control the velocity of exchange. If dollars are not changing hands at a fast rate then there is little inflation and deflation occurs.
Another factor to consider is that the government is not pumping dollars into the system, they are pumping credit into the system, if people use credit there is inflation but then the dollar eventually increases in value as people chase after them to pay their debt.
The U.S. government if you watch closely is issuing treasury bonds which are sold on the market. If there are no buyers then the Federal Reserve prints, but if there are buyers, no new printing is necessary. Since Central banks around the world are investing in Treasury bonds, meaning that they take the FRNs they have in reserve and buy Treasury bonds, there is less new printing by the Federal Reserve necessary. Brazil for example purchased 175 billion dollars worth of Treasury bonds this month of October and China is probably doing the same, this will weaken their currencies, but at the same time it increases their ability to export their goods.
As long as people and central banks around the world continue to invest in Treasury Bonds the dollar will continue to strengthen. The question is how long people and foreign countries will be satisfied holding paper and not want to get something of real value in return.
Inflation is the following equation MV=PQ for those interested.
grant
At least, you are looking at many factors. Most people
"Only a virtuous people are capable of freedom. As nations become corrupt and vicious, they have more need of masters." Benjamin Franklin
---
who predicted hyper-inflation had TOO SIMPLISTIC, INADEQUATE, and INCORRECT views on the economy, in my opinion.
Some people wondered why I disagreed with them so much, but it's only because I strongly disagreed with their views. I thought their views are TOO SIMPLISTIC, INADEQUATE, INCORRECT, and therefore, DANGEROUS.
government of the people, by the people, for the people
---
It is getting harder and
It is getting harder and harder for me to believe that you simply don’t understand the differences in economic and monetary mechanics. During the vast majority of the 1800s, there was a strong deflationary environment when it came to prices of goods and services, yet the economic was growing at a steady pace, just contrary to what we would normally expect in such cases, but that was the general trend of that period.
Today, we have an economic deflationary pressure that is occurring under a highly inflationary monetary policy, the two are NOT CONTRADICTORY, nor are the mutually exclusive in presentation. You can have both in any combination with various other factors that appear to be outside your purview of understanding.
There are several instances of deflationary sectors within an inflationary monetary environment, this is not unusual as you obviously suppose. Just because there are deflationary sectors within an economy does not mean that there is not an inflationary trend that will manifest itself. You are looking very narrowly at deflated pricing and sectors but seem to ignore the overall massive inflationary push that is occurring at the moment That inflationary push will present itself in the economy, there is absolutely no way to avoid the stream of massive inflation that is about to occur throughout the economic system. The FED/Treasury has already pumped massive amounts of both credit liquidity and money into circulation this year and is continuing to pump like there is no tomorrow.
Here again, you give no basis for your opinions, none whatsoever. You simply spit out your opinions without any substantial explanation of how you arrive at them. Quite the contrary, it is your views, your opinions that are TOO SIMPLISTIC, INADEQUATE AND INCORRECT...they are not dangerous because you offer nothing of substance that could be considered as such.
http://www.1776solution.blogspot.com
http://militantjeffersonian.com
"Men do not willingly read unpalatable truths of themselves. The People like those best who fool them most, by pandering to their vices and flattering their foibles" Raphael Semmes
Additionally Greed, you seem
Additionally Greed, you seem to be unaware that there is a huge danger looming on the horizon and that is the FED is not only involved in massive bailouts, but is creating huge amounts of money at this moment to prop-up prices, that is, after all, one of their "prime directives". They recognize the exactly same thing that you do, that we all do, and that is that during this period the natural inclination of a down-turning economy is deflationary in various sectors, thus they have shifted their "printing" gears into overdrive as a deflationary block. So, the problem with that is when so much "absolute-money" is being placed into circulation, particularly in a log-jammed economy such as this, the danger for hyper-inflation occurs when that log-jam breaks free. A deflationary depression would be horrible for everyone concerned, but it is nothing compared to a hyperinflationary depression that will destory absolutely everything economically and socially. We could survive a deflationary depression, but not a hyperinflationary one since the complete monetary structure is destoryed in the process.
So, as I have said, we are seeing the natural occurrances of deflationary pressures in a down-turn of this type, the difference is in the degree that the FED and other central banks are responding and the manner of their response. I suppose what I am saying is that I hope you are right because it would not be nearly as difficult under a deflationary depression as it will under a hyperinflationary one, but I don't see your scenario happening because of the massive response that the central banks are taking. Basically, the FED's actions are like putting 100 years worth of fiat currency into circulation within a years period.
http://www.1776solution.blogspot.com
http://militantjeffersonian.com
"Men do not willingly read unpalatable truths of themselves. The People like those best who fool them most, by pandering to their vices and flattering their foibles" Raphael Semmes
Just wait...
The inflation will take a while to manifest itself. Maybe a couple of years.
You can't throw that amount of money at the problem without a bad result.
RE: The Zimbabwe economy...Inflation at 11.2 million percent
Despit desperate government intervention and price controls.
Gold will rule.
"We have allowed our nation to be over-taxed, over-regulated, and overrun by bureaucrats. The founders would be ashamed of us for what we are putting up with."
-Ron Paul
Euro is falling faster than
Euro is falling faster than the dollar.
If two people drop a ball from the top of a building, and one ball falls a little slower, economists would say that ball is rising.
Our dollar is falling a little slower than the Euro right now
Lots of fast falling balls here. Take a look
"Only a virtuous people are capable of freedom. As nations become corrupt and vicious, they have more need of masters." Benjamin Franklin
---
here.
http://www.mrci.com/client/crb.php
government of the people, by the people, for the people
---
hey julius
that's really an very illuminating analogy.
care if i share with others?
THIS WAS TOTALLY EXPECTED.
"Only a virtuous people are capable of freedom. As nations become corrupt and vicious, they have more need of masters." Benjamin Franklin
---
government of the people, by the people, for the people
---
Don't ya think...
RonPaulLincoln
this is the typical set up. Maybe I'm wrong but if "they" can get everyone out of the market and locked into bonds thinking it is going to be defaltionary and then release hyperinflation on the economy, won't "they" will have done "it" again.
Muuuaah haa haa haa haaaaaa (rub hand together and grin fiendishly when saying the preceeding sentence ;) )!
RonPaulLincoln
all the foreign markets are
all the foreign markets are currently down heavily so foreigners are seeking temporary refuge but overseas will stabilize quicker than America so the foreigners will then run back into their own currency and markets.
Good question
While the gold bugs were right about the precariousness of the mortgage and derivatives markets, they never guessed that the crash in these markets that they predicted would result in:
1. Precious metals plummeting by 30 - 50%.
2. Major gold mining stocks halving or more.
3. Junior exploration gold stocks tanking by 60 - 95%.
4. A rising dollar in the face of huge increases in federal
spending on one $100 billion bailout after another.
What we regard as money is largely a matter of psychology. While gold has been money for a very long time, the central banks seem to have succeeded in their goal of demonetizing gold in the minds of the vast majority of the public. So in a panic 99% of the investing public flees to the dollar, not to gold. As a man with a large stake in both gold bullion and gold stocks I'm not happy to have reached this conclusion, but my brokerage statement has a way of beating the reality into my thick skull.
Maybe that will change when people see annual inflation in excess of 15%, but with houses, oil, wheat, and every other commodity going down it is likely to be quite some time before the bingeing at the Fed creates any visible inflation.
I am encouraged by the great number of people
Bob Chapman reaches, and he loves Ron Paul. Read about him here
http://www.theinternationalforecaster.com/Bob_Chapman
Bob Chapman wrote about this on 10-18-08
http://www.theinternationalforecaster.com/International_Fore...
"Note how the EU Illuminists are using currency swaps with the Fed to fund a large portion of their bailouts. They are swapping euros for dollars, and then pumping the dollars into their system to keep it afloat. They can do this because the dollar is still the de facto world reserve currency. By doing this, the EU elitists are parking their currency at the Fed so that they do not add these euros to their money supply, thereby aggravating already serious problems with inflation...This means that everyone has to bail out their financial institutions, and this ensures the destruction of all fiat currencies through hyperinflation.....They made sure that no other currency besides the dollar could become dominant in the ensuing carnage."
Great article, as usual.
Well...maybe....
In Christ,
Dave
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Dave
"where the Spirit of the LORD is, there is liberty." 2 Cor. 3:17
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The dollar is strengthening
The dollar is strengthening because people are getting out of the stock market seeking security. They buy bonds in hopes of a guaranteed return. What they aren't taking into consideration is the hyperinflation coming from all of the bailouts and the growing debt of the country. We cannot afford 20% interest rates like we could in 1980. Now that would mean a $2 trillion payment of interest. That's too much. Anyhow, this country is going to delcare that we are broke in February, mark your calendars. Get prepared, and buy gold while it's cheap.
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YEah...I don't see that happening...
In Christ,
Dave
Take our Presidential Poll, reflecting all 12 Candidates @
www.lionandlambministry.com
Best Ever Website Design:
www.USDesigns.org
All New, All Christian and Freedom Video Site:
www.lionandlambtv.com
Grace be to you, and peace, from God our Father, and from the Lord Jesus Christ.
In The LORD Jesus Christ;
Dave
"where the Spirit of the LORD is, there is liberty." 2 Cor. 3:17
http://www.lionandlambministry.com
Dollar Strength Might be Short Lived...Maybe
The talk among traders is that once the world markets stabilize we could see a flight out of the the dollar. I have frequently heard the term "forced to buy the US dollar" by market analysts. Not sure how this works, most of this is new territory but what I do know is that there seems to be an inverse relationship between the dollar and the equities markets. When the market rallies the dollar sinks and vice versa. Also note the relationship between the price of oil and the usd. The most recent high of the dollar reached the 120's in 2002 - 2003 period. I'm going off mostly memory but wasn't gas in the $1 - 1.50 per gallon range? That would be nice to see again, especially to watch the oil cartels suffer. In the interim it's a nice time to travel to Canada where the Loonie is now down to .79 to the dollar or Australia at .66 cents. :)
Yah there is one upside to this whole thing...
All of OPEC is freaking out.
Heheh