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I Love
when Jimmy boy puts the the SMACK DOWN on fools!!!
This was clearly an attack
This was clearly an attack job by CNBC. That guy Martin set Jim up! Jim never brought up 1929 in this particular interview, he was talking about 1990's Japan and then Martin clearly brought up 1929 and then pointed the finger at Jim like he had said it. I had to watch it twice but it was a clear attack job, because Jim has brought 1929, and of course the Fed, up in past interviews in different contexts but not this time!!! Total BS! I'd be pissed if I was Jim.
Watch it a couple times, you'll see what I mean....
Rogers is wrong about Friedman's
wife. Anna Schwartz, who was quoted in the excellent WSJ article Rogers refers to, is not Rose Friedman, though Rose is also an economist.
-JP
The first 5 million supporters of Dr. Paul are 'early adopters.' The next 10 million will require a modified approach.
The Financial System is DEAD
The $1/2-1 Quadrillion derivatives bubble eclipses the real economy. As it goes, it sucks the real economy away. The idiots in Washington have chosen to save the derivatives gambling casino, but are jettisoning the real economy. Congress needs to repeal the Fed (who allowed and encouraged the derivatives gambling casino), put the current system into bankruptcy, create a new currency, and save the faltering economy and he republic.
www.JoeSixPack.me
www.JoeSixPack.me
I WISH that Jim would have
I WISH that Jim would have stated that the reason that the Depression lasted so long was not because of the initial bank failures due to the contraction of the money supply but because of the GOVERNMENT constantly meddling in the economy trying to prop it up.
Hoover and FDR's continuation of Hoover's polices via the New Deal ARE what caused the depression to last so long. The government is doing the exact same thing now by trying to prop up homes prices, car sales and the like.
Jim Sounds
like Ron Paul - let those that will fail fail, abolish the federal reserve, but they are have ears to hear but they won't hear.
Detective Krum Investigates:
http://victory1project.wordpress.com/
http://v1-p.com/
Detective Krum Investigates:
http://victory1project.wordpress.com/
Hoping for Magic
They are still hoping for magic.
They don't want to let anyone else fail, as they may be next. They would rather have the government and the Fed prop things up with magic (which does not have to make any sense) as it may then all come out okay. Somehow.
Their first mistake is trusting the perpetrators with the rescue.
Jim is absolutely right: Paulson and Bernanke should quit or be fired.
But the next banker would then come along proposing similar magic.
I fear voters and market participants will not come to believe in reality until faces are bloodied on brick walls.
ac
liberty yields harmony; tyrany yields chaos
liberty yields harmony; tyrany yields chaos
I just have to laugh at the
folks who go against Roger's assessment. You poor folks who are hoping to be bailed out once again are going to be the same ones who are running from the cities when the country goes broke. Go ahead and post your "hope for your retirement" as it is going by the wayside. The rats shall run from the cities.
Rexo.. look at my post
Rexo.. look at my post below.. read sinclairs the formula.. tell me that is not what is going on right now! everyone wants to defend like you say but they will not touch that 1.. this thing is going to collapse. just to what degree is the question!
"When governments fear the people there is liberty. When the people fear the government there is tyranny."
-Thomas Jefferson
I am more concerned about the return of my money than the return on my money. --Mark Twain
“A prudent man foreseeth the evil, and hideth himself: but the simple pass on, and are punished.” (Prov. 22:3; 27:12 KJV)
Hey McCain-----┌П┐(◣_◢)┌П┐
Add to that...
Pantzner's "Financial Armageddon". This is the most concise and to the point explanation of what has happened and where we are going. It ties it all together in a neat bow of superior understanding. Get the book. You won't be sorry.
**“The man who does not read good books has no advantage over the man who cannot read them.” ~ Mark Twain **
"...there is no doubt that it (socialism) could not possibly have affected us so widely and so deeply as it has, had it not been heavily financed". - B. Carroll Reece
Rogers is wrong on the Great Depression
The Friedmans' theory of the Great Depression is pure bullshit. Read the Austrians on the Great Depression if you want to know what really happened.
By accepting Friedman's GP theory, Jim Rogers contradicts himself. He currently advocates "laissez-faire" (let the losers fail and the winners take over) but somehow thinks that in '29 the government/central bank should have propped up insolvent banks?
Bank runs are a good thing. They expose the fraud of fractional reserve banking and in a free market, without a central bank, the threat of bank runs would keep the banks (more) honest.
What actually prolonged the GP was not a "liquidity problem" (not enough funny money) but was the economic interventionism of the Federal government under Hoover and Roosevelt. Price fixing, wage laws, increased Federal spending, subsidies, increased taxation, etc.... As Ron Paul (and the Austrians) has pointed out over and over and over again, rather than feeling the pain for a few months to a year, the crash of '29 was turned into a 16+ year depression purely due to the meddling of the government.
Rogers is a solid voice for truth on some issues, but he needs more education.
Of course the talking head on the show is a complete moron and is even more off base on the GP.
I do agree that Roger's reference to Milton Friedman's
"explanation" regarding the 1929 Crash brings weakness to his argument. Like many of the monetarists, Friedman offered an extremely simplistic view that the 1929 Crash came about because the Fed refused to loosen credit or inject capital into the system at some critical point in time. That's actually true.....as far as it goes. The difficulty is that it doesn't go nearly far enough to discover and bring forth the prior loose money policies of the Fed during the 20s which created the bubble in the first place and then, when the Fed finally came to their senses and started to contract credit, of course the bubble had nothing to do but burst. The problem I have with Friedman's explanation is that it amounts to saying that some 500lb diabetic man had died because he didn't receive a dose of insulin at some critical point in time. While perhaps technically true from a superficial examination, it totally ignores the previous lifestyle of the deceased which created the insulin dependency in the first place. As far as those "stories" regarding Hoover's alleged policy of "doing nothing", as a result of the 1929 Crash, that's pure fantasy. Anyone who's read Murray Rothbard's America's Great Depression knows that Hoover was implementing all manner of interventionist legislation that was later adopted, and greatly expanded, by FDR; the result of which was to take what should have been a relatively brief period of economic hardship and adjustment and prolong its life and severity for many years.
_________________________________________
"An economy built on fiat money is a society on its way to ashes."
_________________________________________
"An economy built on fiat money is a society on its way to ashes."
I agree and disagree...
Anna Schwatz' article that Rogers refers to is very interesting and worth a read. I disagree that Friedman's theory on the Great Depression is "pure bullshit".
I see a difference in context between Friedman's argument and the Austrians' arguments. The Austrians describe how the US banking system became a government-sanctioned cartel in 1913, after several decades of banks trying to do fractional reserves but getting burned by essentially free-market competition. After 1913, the government told the banks "sure, go ahead with fractional reserves, leverage up all sectors of the economy, we'll back you up with the money you need in any emergency." And so the bubbles started getting bigger.
What I believe Friedman and Schwartz are talking about can be taken in the following context: given the system in place, what decisions should the Federal Reserve have made? In the 20s and 30s, banks wanted to lend but were afraid of running out of money. The government didn't come through on its end of the fraudulent deal to back up the cartel, and some banks failed. (There seems to be disagreement out there about the extent to which the Fed and the Hoover administration tried to "inject liquidity"... the Austrians argue that much more was done than is conventionally discussed, so I don't know. But I digress...)
Extra liquidity may have been a short-term help (but as the Austrians point out, would have eventually led to inflation or other problems). The difference now is that banks do NOT want to lend. Trust and confidence within the banking world has been deeply hurt. Banks have reserves but are unwilling to lend them. What Schwartz points out in her article is that this is a very different problem for the federal reserve from what they faced in the 1930s, and throwing money at the problem will neither help in the short term nor the long term, as it will only lead to inflation once confidence in lending returns (ie, they will have much larger base reserves which they can quickly leverage up and inflate the currency through fractional reserves).
I agree with the Austrians, but within the context that I put Friedman's argument, particularly Schartz' recent argument, I mostly agree with them as well. I believe Rogers would have a similar point of view.
...one more thing...
There is another thing that Rogers touches on in this interview which is deeply frightening.
There has been a drastic increase in the base monetary supply this year. Right now, because the banks are not lending (ie, leveraging up their newly-minted Federal Reserve notes), prices in the economy have remained somewhat stable. However, once the economy starts to recover and banks start lending and the next boom begins, we will see an extremely rapid expansion of the supply of US dollars, and the value of the dollar will rapidly decline. Rogers mentions this when he argues for holding commodities.
The federal reserve will have to make a very quick and difficult decision. They can save the dollar by ratcheting up the interest rates to never-before-seen levels, but this will rapidly push the federal government into default because of the $10T debt it owes. Or, it can let the federal government get away easy by letting the dollar hyper-inflate and become worthless, and thus destroy the US economy. They will not have much time to make this decision. Either choice would be pretty scary.
I agree
That's absurd that they should have been bailed out in 1929.
As they late Harry Browne used to say:
"Government doesn't work."
A big difference between now
A big difference between now and ’29 is the speed at which money moves around in the banking system as a whole, and the general level of diversification. If you lived in a small community in ’29, your money, and that of your neighbors were all tied up at the same bank, as were most of the loans having been made to that community. If there was a bank run, this bank would have a very hard time getting funds from non run on banks. By providing a wash of liquidity from the feds, many of these very local bank runs could likely have been averted until a problem bank’s assets could have been valued and lent against by other banks. So, at least in theory, there was much stronger case for temporary intervention in ’29 than now.
Today we don’t have the same issue, since the pain is spread out all over the world. There is nowhere to get funds from, since everybody knows everybody else’s assets are overvalued on the books. Any intervention will not simply be a temporary measure while fund flows sort themselves out, but rather a proper bailout, with all the capital dislocations and moral hazards that entails.
In the long term, I fully agree that the ideal scenario would be to have no fed, no fractional reserve lending and no artificial liquidity injections from up high, but that case can be made much stronger today than in the ‘29. Now everybody can easily (barring silly regulation) diversify by keeping their funds in tens of banks across multiple continents, and manage it all from their PC as easy as if the money were in a bank branch next door. In a world such as that, both the fed and the fdic has long ago outlived what little usefulness they might once have had.
and sadly this thing is
and sadly this thing is going to last 10+ years because of the medling.. plus it will be worse because the 2 times of 1930's vs today are way different ... the country is totally different.. and the dollar was backed by
gold..
"When governments fear the people there is liberty. When the people fear the government there is tyranny."
-Thomas Jefferson
I am more concerned about the return of my money than the return on my money. --Mark Twain
“A prudent man foreseeth the evil, and hideth himself: but the simple pass on, and are punished.” (Prov. 22:3; 27:12 KJV)
Hey McCain-----┌П┐(◣_◢)┌П┐
great points. nice post.
great points. nice post.
I think this guy is right..
I think this guy is right.. thanks for the post.. love it when he tells the cnbc guy they don't get anything right and thats true! they are there to pump stocks. Just like when Peter schiff goes against them they make fun of him too, then 1 to 2 years later everything he predicted happens!
kinda reminds me of the deflationist/inflationist discussion/fights on the daily paul. I would listen to the inflationist side to this.. what we have seen now for the last 4 months will soon turn.. also.. we are not seeing deflation in every part of the economy.. housing, stocks- yes metals have flatened, contrary to what the spot price says, silver still goes for over 17.00 per ounce/ gold still for 1000.00 you may find some deals but they are few and far between! the economy is only going to get worse.. Jim Sinclairs "the formula" is exactly what we have seen over the past couple of years. we are in a downword economic spiral.. no on the daily paul who thinks the economy is not going down has yet to refute "the formula"!
Jim’s Formula:
September 1, 2006
1) First interest rates rise affecting the drivers of the US economy, housing, but before that auto production goes from bull to a bear markets.
2) This impacts many other industries and the jobs report. An economy is either rising at a rising rate or business activity is falling at an increasing rate. That is economic law 101. There is no such thing in any market as a Plateau of Prosperity or Cinderella - Goldilocks situations.
3) We have witnessed the Dow rise on economic news indicating deceleration of activity. This continues until major corporations announced poor earnings, making the Dow fall faster than it rose, moving it deeply into the red.
4) The formula economically is inherent in #2 which is lower economic activity equals lower profits.
5) Lower profits leads to lower Federal Tax revenues.
Lower Federal tax revenues in the face of increased Federal spending causes geometric, not arithmetic, rises in the US Federal Budget deficit. 6) This is also true for cities & States as it is for the Federal government.
7) The increased US Federal Budget deficit in the face of a US Trade Deficit increases the US Current Account Deficit.
8) The US Current Account Balance is the speedometer of the money exiting the US into world markets (deficit).
9) It is this deficit that must be met by incoming investment in the US in any form. It could be anything from businesses, equities to Treasury instruments. We are already seeing a fall off in the situation of developing nations carrying the spending habits of industrial nations; a contradiction in terms.
10) If the investment by non US entities fails to meet the exiting dollars by all means, then the US must turn within to finance the shortfall.
11) Assuming the US turns inside to finance all maturities, interest rates will rise with the long term rates moving fastest regardless of prevailing business conditions.
12) This will further contract business activity and start a downward spiral of unparalleled dimension because the size of US debt already issued is of unparalleled dimension.
Therefore as you get to #12 you are automatically right back at #1. This is an economic downward spiral.
I heard all this "slow business" as negative to gold talk in the 70s. It was totally wrong then. It will be exactly the same now.
I am more concerned about the return of my money than the return on my money. --Mark Twain
“A prudent man foreseeth the evil, and hideth himself: but the simple pass on, and are punished.” (Prov. 22:3; 27:12 KJV)
Hey McCain-----┌П┐(◣_◢)┌П┐
That CNBC guy
What a whiner.
\ya know whats really funny?
\ya know whats really funny? Jim Rodgers is worth how many hundreds of millions or billions of dollars.. he did not get there by being stupid! that imbecile on cnbc acts as tho he is just as smart or wealthy! if he is why is he working for cnbc??
"When governments fear the people there is liberty. When the people fear the government there is tyranny."
-Thomas Jefferson
I am more concerned about the return of my money than the return on my money. --Mark Twain
“A prudent man foreseeth the evil, and hideth himself: but the simple pass on, and are punished.” (Prov. 22:3; 27:12 KJV)
Hey McCain-----┌П┐(◣_◢)┌П┐
he is there to pump
he is there to pump stocks... thats it!
"When governments fear the people there is liberty. When the people fear the government there is tyranny."
-Thomas Jefferson
I am more concerned about the return of my money than the return on my money. --Mark Twain
“A prudent man foreseeth the evil, and hideth himself: but the simple pass on, and are punished.” (Prov. 22:3; 27:12 KJV)
Hey McCain-----┌П┐(◣_◢)┌П┐
It was good to see
that Rogers would not allow words to be put in his mouth...good for him!
Berwick, Columbia County, Pennsylvania
Ron Paul 2012 - The People's Choice
rEVOLution SuperPAC: http://www.revolutionpac.com/
WTP Federal Lawsuit to BAN ALL ELECTRONIC VOTING
http://www.wethepeoplefoundation.org/UPDATE/Update2011-07-26...
bump
go Rogers!
How many times
does Jim have to repeat the same thing over and over in these interviews and these guys just refuse to accept what he is saying? How he remains as patient as he does is beyond me. He has always been one of the few that has the courage to tell it like is is and not pander to these jerks. Actually, I am surprised they let him come on.
Just like any discussion before an audience ...
How many times does Jim have to repeat the same thing over and over in these interviews and these guys just refuse to accept what he is saying?
Just like any discussion before an audience - whether in person, on broadcast media, the internet, etc. - he's not trying to convince the debating partner. The point is to convince members of the audience.
This means you have to do it over and over - as the convinced are replaced by new viewers. But every time you do it you convince more people. Eventually they go off and convince others. Do it well enough and it takes off. (You've seen that with Ron Paul, haven't you?) Jim, like Ron, obviously understands this and is willing to put up with the aggravation and repetition in the knowledge that he's getting his point across, that every repetition produces more progress.
And (as we used to say on netnews): "If {refractory idiot of the day} didn't exist we'd have to invent him." The straight man with the opposing view is necessary to the process. If you ever bring him around to your point of view you have to recruit another or the whole process stops.
Fortunately, as long as there are people to be converted, some of them will be stubborn - and thus provide the straight men you need.
= = = =
"Obama’s Economists: ‘Stimulus’ Has Cost $278,000 per Job."
That means: For each job "created or saved" about five were destroyed.
Good point
It makes the repeating worth it. We are lucky he has the opportunity in these times to get a chance to talk at all on MSM I guess.
Rogers Is The Man!
Thanks for posting!
________________________________________________
"Make the lie big, make it simple, keep saying it, and eventually they will believe it." -- Joseph Goebbels
_____________________________
"Make the lie big, make it simple, keep saying it, and eventually they will believe it." -- Joseph Goebbels
bookmark
"Only a virtuous people are capable of freedom. As nations become corrupt and vicious, they have more need of masters." Benjamin Franklin
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government of the people, by the people, for the people
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Jim Rogers' quarrel
fantastic interview
Rogers quote, "abolish Federal Reserve"
"fire Paulson & Berneke"
"Our Day is Coming"
★★★thank you RON PAUL★★★
Columbus, Platte Co. Nebraska