GOLD-When, oh when, will it turn around?
Submitted by wauhoo on Thu, 10/23/2008 - 13:19
From an article in Marketwatch this am:
Gold is often seen as an investment safe haven whose prices tend to rise when the economy falls into troubles, but its recent slumps have defied conventional wisdom. Gold has fallen in 10 out of the past 11 sessions since Oct. 8 and has lost more than $190 an ounce.
"The fact that gold did not head higher during the current leg of the crisis seems to reflect a combination of the rise in the dollar, deleveraging of commodity positions, sales to meet margin calls, and the unwinding of the long gold, short dollar trade," wrote Natalie Dempster, an analyst at the World Gold Council.
Any ideas when all of these pressures on gold will ease off?
»
Don't know
But I just got a very neat phone call at the store, a guy asked me where I was located, and I told him. He then told me he had just saw my commercial on tv, and then went to my website. He saw my notice on there about accepting Gold & Silver coins for payment, he said he didn't need to rent any tools, but he saw my son in the commercial and wanted to bring him a silver dollar. This really made me smile, it sounded like a nice old man who was happy to see a guy in business that "got it".
Thank you Dr. Paul for making my act on what I already knew was right.
*May the only ones to touch your junk, be the ones you want to touch your junk.*
When we get back on a fully
When we get back on a fully backed gold standard. From what I am told, in order to fully back the dollars in current circulation, gold prices would have to be $3000-$5000 / Oz. And that is if all the gold in the world were used to back US dollars. If the rest of the world also wises up……
Other than that, I can’t see any particular reason why gold should demonstrate outstanding gains compared to other reasonable investments. Recessions always put a crimp on jewelry demand, which is a substantial part of total gold demand. Supposedly people are turning in their jewelry for cash (dollars) in droves right now.
I also don’t believe the fed will go completely amuck and hyper inflate our way out of our sovereign debt. At least not for a while. I honestly believe a default is a lot more likely, which could well be awfully deflationary. But that is just my belief.
I still think it is wise to have some gold, just in case the worlds monetary authorities do go completely mad, we have an honest to goodness second revolution, or our overlords suddenly decide to write down our dollars to nothing, confiscate all non portable property and issue Ameros against it, but I seriously don’t think having gold is any way to get rich anytime soon.
retail silver is flat,
retail silver is flat, despite the spot dropping $5
+2, then +3, then +4, then +5, then +6
when I finally saw Tulving go +7 on a silver eagle (and that's if you buy a boatload in one wack)
i knew i was seeing something important.
could be:
-retail silver is totally separate market now
-lag....lot's of lag....kind of like $95 oil, but still $3.50/gallon gasoline, then it finally catches up
-tomfoolery?
-who knows
anyway, my suspicion is that metals will continue to fall.
some days i think this depression/recession is moving really fast
other days i think that we're going to be going at this for 2 or 3 years....which could mean an extended deflationary period
and boy won't that surprise a lot of folks.
$50 oil?
$500 gold?
$5 silver?
5000 dow?
ok. i admit i'm just making those numbers up.
at this point, i'm prepared to be jobless, and experiencing deflation OR inflation....
just watching to see where it goes, and keep myself from making too many mistakes...
If Silver is $5
Then I will convert all my money to Canadian Maples which have a face value of $5 :) Then all my money will technically be cash and metals wouldn't that be great?
"Greater than the force of mighty armies is the power of an idea whose time has come"
- Victor Hugo
"Greater than the force of mighty armies is the power of an idea whose time has come"
- Victor Hugo
that would be cool to use
that would be cool to use those to pay for things...people would be confused.
and if the refused them you could laugh at them and loudly state: "well if you don't want them I DO!!! pull out a wad of cash and proffer to pay for any real silver maple leafs right on the spot"
people will be stunned confused...but a light bulb might go off.
Who runs the show
THE BIG people running "the system" tell us what is VALUE, untill a total collapse happens ...THEN your guess is as good as mine.....GOLD has to be traded to another seeking GOLD, right now anyway..
weee
After most people who thought hyper-inflation would come are
"Only a virtuous people are capable of freedom. As nations become corrupt and vicious, they have more need of masters." Benjamin Franklin
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forced to liquidate their gold due to lack of cash is my guess.
government of the people, by the people, for the people
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What is valuable ??
GOLD is about worthless in a paper society ....Till the paper dries up GOLD is not the standard it was ...REmember it's not what you think it's worth it is what other people value.....PAPER buys a lot right now...
That is our standard ....WE are used to it & it has it's grip on us....Value is in the products you buy not in ,GOLD...I told you before you cannot eat GOLD...
weee
Excellent point. I always thought that lack of current
"Only a virtuous people are capable of freedom. As nations become corrupt and vicious, they have more need of masters." Benjamin Franklin
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official money would make gold official money again, not too much of current official money. This is one of the reasons why I think gold would do well in the long run especially in deflation.
government of the people, by the people, for the people
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Plastic Money
According to the Chairman of Bank of America, we're going not to cash, debit/credit cards, gold, silver ........ but to electronic money. We'll have a card that is "filled" with the money we earn, and then as we "spend" we spend down the balance of that card. Where will gold and silver be then? Black market, maybe? We won't even have cash to spend. They'll know every way we "spend" our money, and even be able to control it so that we can't "spend" on contraband!
January! Colin Powell gives
January!
Colin Powell gives you the answer....
When the Comex defaults
possibly on its December contracts.
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"the only thing that keeps the banking system from failing is general ignorance about how the banking system works."
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My guess...
is that when it does it will happen fast.
Ron Paul 2012
www.josiahgarber.com/blog
www.heirloomgardenpro.com
www.mennonitesforronpaul.com
Story
Gold's recent slump bewilders investors
World Gold Council points to fund liquidation, stronger dollar, stock markets
By Moming Zhou, MarketWatch
Last update: 2:20 p.m. EDT Oct. 23, 2008
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold is often seen as an investment safe haven whose price tends to rise when the economy falls into troubles, but its recent slumps have defied conventional wisdom.
Gold futures hit a historic high above $1,000 an ounce a few days after Bear Stearns was taken over by J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM) on March 14. But in the recent round of crises triggered by the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (LEHMQ) , gold has fallen to below $700 for the first time in 13 months. The metal has so far lost nearly $170 this month.
The reason, according to analysts at the World Gold Council, is that the latest bout of the credit crisis has been deeper and more far reaching. Funds were forced to sell desired assets such as gold to meet margin calls, while weakness in European economies lifted the U.S. dollar, which then pushed dollar-denominated gold prices lower.
"The fact that gold did not head higher during the current leg of the crisis seems to reflect a combination of the rise in the dollar, deleveraging of commodity positions, sales to meet margin calls, and the unwinding of the long gold, short dollar trade," wrote Natalie Dempster, an analyst at the WGC, in a research report released Thursday.
Unlike in March, banks and investment funds were facing an increasingly tight credit market recently. The overnight dollar London interbank offered rate, the rate banks charge each other known as Libor, hit a record high of 6.88% earlier this month. The rate was at around 3% in March.
Stocks also stood higher in March, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) trading around 12,000. The Dow has slumped to below 9,000 this month.
"The current crisis has seen much more pressure on gold as an 'asset of last resort,' where it has been sold to meet margin calls when there have simply been so few other viable options available," Dempster said.
Trading in the over-the-counter gold market, where big institutions trade with each other directly in large orders, weakened in the third quarter due to the rise in counterparty risk and the lack of investment capitals, according to GFMS, a London-based precious metal consultancy.
A wave of liquidations occurred in September as funds were forced to raise cash in the face of margin calls and massive investor redemptions, according to GFMS.
The London gold-fixing price -- used as a benchmark for gold's OTC trading - has dropped $164.50 this month. It stood at $720 an ounce Thursday afternoon.
Gold trading in futures markets also went through a similar declining trend. In the two major global gold futures markets in New York and Tokyo, speculators' buy positions have been falling, while their sell positions have been rising.
Some investment funds were forced to sell even their "most desired assets such as precious metals," said Peter Spina, president of GoldSeek.com. There could be "more victims of the fund collapse and more forced liquidations."
Gold futures traded on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange have fallen in 10 of the past 11 sessions since Oct. 8 and have lost more than $190 an ounce. Futures slumped 5% Thursday to below $700 for the first time since September, 2007. See Metals Stocks.
"Investors worldwide are selling everything, including the kitchen sink, and gold is no exception," said Peter Grandich, chief commentator at Agoracom, an online marketplace for the small-cap investment community.
Dollar's rise
The U.S. dollar also played an important role in gold prices, as the greenback and the yellow metal often move in the opposite direction.
During the Bear Stearns crisis, the dollar continued its long secular decline, with the euro trading above $1.50.
The dollar, however, has seen a steep rise since late September, with the euro trading below $1.30 Wednesday for the first time since February 2007. The British pound fell to its weakest level against the dollar in five years. See Currencies
A stronger dollar reduced gold's appeal as an investment alternative. "Investors unwound leveraged short dollar, long gold positions, mindful of the long standing negative correlation between gold and the dollar," said the WGC's Dempster.
Some analysts, however, said that in the long term, the U.S. rescue plans to inject liquidity into banks will stir inflation and a devaluation of the dollar -- something that would be bullish for gold prices.
"An extraordinary amount of liquidity has been pumped into the system this year," said Peter Grant, senior analyst at USAGOLD. "I anticipate further debasement of all currencies, including the dollar, which will ultimately drive gold prices higher."
Moming Zhou is a MarketWatch reporter, based in San Francisco.
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"The main thing that I learned about conspiracy theory is that conspiracy theorists actually believe in a conspiracy because that is more comforting. The truth of the world is that it is chaotic..." —Alan Moore
What you are asking is when will the US dollar weaken?
The question is about how gold is priced in dollars...right?
What I have done is followed the progress of the dollar.
The link to the yahoo chart (below) of the last 2 years of the dollar provides some insight.
In order to benefit from this insight you need to understand the chart and leave your emotions aside.
The dollar was fabulously oversold this spring. It was hammered.
In 1998 gold hit something like 270 an ounce....obviously at that time gold was OVERSOLD.
In late 2000 the dollar hit almost 1.20 euros. That means that the euro which is worth a $1.29 today was about $.84 cents in 2000. In currency terms that is an enormous swing.
Since 1999 Gold bugs have been selling gold on emotions. If you are going to tell me otherwise I accept your right to your opinion. but, I disagree. it is a "hit'em hard" system in the gold business and I have been there. I assum there is an ad next to this post that is busy terrifying the sh%$ out of everyone trying to get them to buy gold.
In a out of step way Gold DOES trade with the dollar. Occasionally it diverges, but, it usually returns to the base line.
People in the gold trading business are far too emotional for me. Trading needs to be handled with practical sense not..."Oh my God the Russians are bankrupt! Buy gold!" The reasons for buying are highly complicated economic principals that most economists have zero hope of figuring out let alone an ad copy writer for a gold seller
Now for today's gold market.
The gold chart can tell you something about the near term. There is decent support at $600 to 650. I feel strongly that the long term trend remains UP as the fiat system creates more dollars gold should gain in value, I just don't know when.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=USDEUR=X#chart6:symbol=us...
The above dollar chart is a very tough chart to go against. The dollar has most certainly bottomed. This is bad for gold prices as if I needed to tell you that.
The dollar chart is SKYROCKETING and being long gold means you are going AGAINST this chart.
The issue with going long gold in the last 24 months was that you were playing a continued dollar slide. It worked for awhile, but, when the dollar turned in April through August it turned with a vengeance.
When an investment trend is tanking as the dollar was it takes brass ba%$s to go against it.
Unfortunately, it is also the BEST time to go long. KKR Krispy Kreme is an excellent illustration of chart movement and the struggle between the shorts and the longs. Basically, the price was something like $65 a share for a bankrupt company simply because there were so many shorts. Whenever the price dipped shorts would cover and jack it back up.
The dollar was similar. When a price is trending down the number of shorts is trending UP. Human nature. The issue with the dollar was it was oversold and there was a ton of short interest along with world economic factors. When the dollar turned, the shorts started to cover and the dollar began to climb. It is climbing this last couple of weeks at far too fast a rate and will correct before reaching parity with the euro....maybe.
I don't know when and if I did I wouldn't be sitting at a computer at 3 in the afternoon.
Whilst the dollar was doing what it was doing gold went from 300 to almost 1100. Not a bad move, but, basically in concert with the dollar crash.
20/20 hindsight says you sell a 300 to 1100 dollar move. 20/20 hindsight says 900 dollar gold is high in the grand scheme of things and lets wait for the correction to buy back in. These are all thoughts for sophisticated traders...not moi.
Keep in mind that short interest in gold has been decimated in the last 10 months.These shorts are the folks who pay HIGH prices for gold because their timing was off. Shorts are covering in the dollar market like there is no tomorrow and it will eventually stabilize.
Study the charts and realize when gold prices turn it will be because all of the people who are SHORT gold NOW decide to "get out." They will panic and cover and buy your gold from you. see? Shorts are good, they buy stuff from us when we need them to.
I always read the Aden sisters about gold, I suggest you do too. they are very measured as compared to the majority of gold pushers.
I am not an adviser and I do not own any gold except for the stuff in my computer's circuits and a tooth or two.
Good luck to you,
T
Unify
Gold is LONG
Stay the course!
don't ever say that
don't ever say that again.
stay-the-course
stupidest phrase in human history.
makes me spit.
Steve Vincent of End the Fed
has explained this phenomenon. He says it is market manipulation by the COMEX to drive the price down so those holding the gold will panic and sell. The world elite want to buy up all the gold themselves in preparation for when they crash the dollar and all the other currencies sometime in the new year.
In fact, according to a recent email, evidence can be seen in the huge volume of short contracts outstanding in precious metals. I'm no expert, but this makes sense to me.
That doesn’t really make sense to me...
Why would someone would go to all that trouble, when they could have just bought up the gold in the 90's or even a couple years ago? Sounds like that person is trying to force something to fit a conspiracy template.
If there is an elite group with plans to crash the dollar why not PLAN to buy up the gold when it was low and fewer people held it?...not manipulate it, let it get high and everyone buy it up, and then try and manipulate it back down to buy it up. That would be just silly.
Sung to the tune of Pearl
Sung to the tune of Pearl Jam's "Oh where oh where could by baby be":
Oh when oh when will gold turn around?
Will it be when the market falls to the ground?
I've gotta sell all my paper before it's too late,
So I can escape everyone else's fate...
We were out on a date in a seedy bar
We hadn't gotten very far
There on the tv
Straight ahead
The Dow was dropping like a ton of lead
It didn't stop
When I got home and in my bed
I'll never forget the words they said
The crying brokers
The massive loss of cash
The painful screams that I heard last.
Soon
Gold will turn higher when the dollar begins to turn lower.
If you're buying, I would start now. You may see a little more dip, but it will not get much lower than $700 an ounce.
If you want to time it perfectly, buy when the Libor 3 month rate gets below 2%. That's when I believe gold will be as cheap as you may ever see it again.
The federal reserve will NOT allow us to enter a deflationary depression. Ben Bernanke has said himself that he would throw money from a helicopter before allowing that to happen.
What do you think about the war on drugs?
How about Operation Wall Street?
Shout it today!
http://www.youshouts.com/index.php
Jz, the only problem is you
Jz,
the only problem is you better buy all you want right now. because there is a shortage! I fear here in the future you won't be able to buy until prices hit much much much higher then now! then thats the time you don't want to buy!
"When governments fear the people there is liberty. When the people fear the government there is tyranny."
-Thomas Jefferson
I am more concerned about the return of my money than the return on my money. --Mark Twain
“A prudent man foreseeth the evil, and hideth himself: but the simple pass on, and are punished.” (Prov. 22:3; 27:12 KJV)
Hey McCain-----┌П┐(◣_◢)┌П┐
I probably won't be buying
I have a few ounces, but i'm not going to rush out and buy any. It's going to begin climbing soon, but I think even $1200 is a few years away at least. I may be wrong, but I don't see a inflation wave about to crash on us...that is unless we start doing a hell of a lot more printing (which may happen)
I'm not of the opinion to pile gold with all my money. Gold is nice and stable, but doesn't offer dividends over time. Stocks do.
I'm probably buying Caterpillar, it's obscenely oversold and should be up 20% by next Friday.
What do you think about the war on drugs?
How about Operation Wall Street?
Shout it today!
http://www.youshouts.com/index.php
Please correct the headline
Please correct the headline as it is deceptive. He is talking about paper gold not real gold. Real gold is not in a slump and has not declined...
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Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin to slit throats. H. L. Mencken
Get Prepared!
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End The Fat
70 pounds lost and counting! Get in shape for the revolution!
Get Prepared!
This bar of PHYSICAL Gold
This bar of PHYSICAL Gold offered at Kitco, currently at $287,600, would have cost you over $400,000 in Feb. How can you say real gold is not in a slump?
https://online.kitco.com/bullion/completelist.html
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"Ehhh, What's ups Doc?" Bugs Bunny
"Scwewy Wabbit!" Elmer Fudd
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"Ehhh, What's ups Doc?" B.Bunny "Scwewy Wabbit!"E. Fudd
People's Awareness Coalition: Deprogramming Sequence
Think of it this way
Think of it this way TX....that bar of gold in fiat money is $287,600.00, but in real 100 Cent Dollars of 1913, it is a steal at $13,013.99...how far our dollar's value has been debased by these central banking fools!
http://www.1776solution.blogspot.com
http://militantjeffersonian.com
"Men do not willingly read unpalatable truths of themselves. The People like those best who fool them most, by pandering to their vices and flattering their foibles" Raphael Semmes
LOL!! Here we go back to
LOL!! Here we go back to 1913 again...back when you had to put in just as many hours of labor to buy that 400 oz. of gold as you do now. Now if I had put $13,013.99 under my mattress in 1913 and I wanted to buy some gold today, well, I've lost a lot of value. But as I remember, uhh, what were we talking about...OH YEAH, uh, I didn't have $13,013.99 in 1913. As matter of fact, I didn't have ANY money in 1913. So you can't really say that MY money has been losing value since 1913. I didn't enter the work force until I was 17, and I bet I was earning way more at 17 that my Great Grand Pappy was making in 1913.
But I agree with your sentiment of these Central Bank THIEVES. (I don't agree with the "fools" part though, they are not fools, they know exactly what their doing)
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"Ehhh, What's ups Doc?" Bugs Bunny
"Scwewy Wabbit!" Elmer Fudd
----------------------------------------------------------
"Ehhh, What's ups Doc?" B.Bunny "Scwewy Wabbit!"E. Fudd
People's Awareness Coalition: Deprogramming Sequence
Because it's still up more
Because it's still up more then double since it began to rise in 2002 even in paper. Feb 08 happened to be it's high point.
http://66.38.218.33/charts/historicalgold.html go to the bottom and on "Multi Year Gold" check 2000-2008 and hit "View Charts"
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Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin to slit throats. H. L. Mencken
Get Prepared!
-----
End The Fat
70 pounds lost and counting! Get in shape for the revolution!
Get Prepared!
It is very clearly $100
It is very clearly $100 below its 1980 high. THAT is a massive decline.
----------------------------------------------------------
"Ehhh, What's ups Doc?" Bugs Bunny
"Scwewy Wabbit!" Elmer Fudd
----------------------------------------------------------
"Ehhh, What's ups Doc?" B.Bunny "Scwewy Wabbit!"E. Fudd
People's Awareness Coalition: Deprogramming Sequence
NO
I want it to stay low. I still need to buy more. The world is not enough!