Ron Paul vs. Howard Dean on Meetup and Polls

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I have been noticing a lot of news articles comparing Ron Paul with Howard Dean lately and I thought I'd do some quick analysis. Like Ron Paul's supporters, Howard Dean's supporters utilized a web site called Meetup.com to organize. Sherman, set The Wayback Machine to 2003!

In looking at the Web Archive, I find that at around this time in 2003, Howard Dean had 143540 supporters in 604 cities. At that time, I don't think that Meetup separated groups from cities. So far, Ron Paul has less than half that number of supporters organized in almost twice as many groups (68815 members in 1172 groups). As far as I can tell, Dean2004 never broke 700 meetup groups (the highest number I can find poking around is 612), but had somewhere around 160000 supporters at its height.

I'm not sure what to make of these numbers. It could be that Ron Paul supporters are more rural and spread out in smaller communities while Howard Dean had more urban support (and therefore larger groups in big cities). For some perspective on Meetup as a whole, I looked into some of the other Meetups I am involved in. Wine has 78182 members in 381 groups. Dining out has nearly 180000 members in 734 groups.

It seems that Dean2004 morphed into Democracy for America (DfA), which now has 67644 members (with 25098 interested) in 142 groups in 108 cities. The fact that there are fewer groups now can be partially attributed to changes that Meetup.com made in 2005, which resulted in a mass purge of various groups. I believe that a majority of the "interested" people are probably people from the disbanded groups (and likely aren't all that interested anymore).

I also found an interesting tidbit about the polls at that time. It seems that Dean was leading in the Iowa tracking polls up until the caucus, but he finished third behind John Kerry and John Edwards (who was not Kerry's running-mate at that point). If the polls were to be believed, the first place should have gone to either Dean or Gephardt. So much for polls!

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Selected winner

Indeed, Kerry, a Skull & Bones member, had a "surprise" win in Iowa against the populist Howard Dean. I've been warning about this since early summer:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/RonPaul2008/message/3160

--- "David H. Sandlin" wrote:

Iowans for Tax Relief and Iowa Christian Alliance will host a presidential candidates forum on Saturday, June 30th in Des Moines.
This is indeed ominous. In the 2004 election, Kerry was originally a nowhere candidate compared to the Internet-boosted Howard Dean. But I knew from his Skull & Bones connections that Kerry would eventually win the Democratic Party nomination. Indeed, he got his boost by pulling strings with the governor of Iowa to win that caucus.

http://www.usnews.com/usnews/news/articles/040719/19point.1_...

I predicted a few weeks ago to the Denver Ron Paul group that the caucus states were going to be tough due to insider politics. Looks like it's starting already.

It's even worse now in 2008, with electronic polling in more places. We saw that already with the Iowa straw poll, one of the few that Ron Paul did not win.

interesting

bump

RE 2004 Meetups and 2004 Polls & Pundits

2004 Meetups
Don't think you can really compare the two candidates Meetup activities for multiple reasons.

Astroturf -- Deans "Meetups" in 2004 were paid for and "hosted by" the campaign itself. They were much more "top-down" -- indeed more like the other traditional campaigns. Additionally, since Dean WAS getting a lot of MSM press and pundit approval, the main focus of the meetups was more "social" and less about campaigning -- sure they were used to bring a bunch of people together for the rally's but not so much for self-run events.

Grassroots -- Ron Paul's Meetups are paid for by the local organizers, and are simply "on" the meetup.com site. They are very much "bottom-up" and very UNLIKE traditional campaigns. Since Ron is getting "dissed" by the MSM, it has motivated the meetups to bypass traditional campaigning and take control themselves; the focus of events is less "social" and more about campaigning, fund-raising, sign posting, etc. And it is ALL about self-run events (with the occasional mass-gathering for nearby rallies).

2004 Polls & Pundits
Yet I find it hilarious (and completely disingenuous) when the pundits refer to Ron Paul as the "Howard Dean of 2008" -- because of their "selective" memories, the ONLY thing they seem to recall about HD from 2004 was that he drew a lot of donations online.

They completely forget that:
1) The POLLS had Dean as the consummate front-runner, and the "inevitable" nominee.
2) The PUNDITS were all on his bandwagon as well, as the "Dean Phenomenon" was deemed by them as "scientifically" unstoppable.
3) That his thousands and thousands of "volunteers" were often Dean-funded.
4) That while he DID receive a lot of online contributions, a lot of his early upfront cash had been via PAC's, etc.

So the reality is that Hilary, Obama, and Romney (and to a lesser degree McCain) are much closer to the being the "Howard Dean" of 2008.

On the GOP side, Romney especially seems to be emulating Dean in spending boatloads of cash EARLY in the campaign to generate the "illusion" of popularity and inevitability; hiring a large contingent of interns and deploying them across early states, etc. And like Dean at this stage he has bankrupt or nearly bankrupt his campaign (if not for his own borrowed money that is).

So it is just so absolutely ironic that they have this "Howard Dean" clone doing the same thing, and they respond in the same way that they did in 2004.

McCain wanted to duplicate Dean, and did his best to spend "like a drunken sailor" during the first 6 months -- but he ended up fizzling out, and running out of cash.

(Giuliani spends a lot of cash, including a lot of cash early on -- not on advertising, as he gets his PR for free courtesy of the MSM -- but yet he doesn't spend it on advertising, and instead he strangely seems to spend most of his cash on consultants, charter jet flights, fancy hotels, and expensive meals while flitting around from boardroom to mansion raising more funds to pay for more charter flights, fancy hotels, etc so that he can flitt around raising money to replace [or almost replace] what he just spent ... well you get the picture -- he's a strangle little nazi man ain't he?).

Meetup in 2004

As I recall, Meetup did not start charging for their service until the middle of 2005. I'm not sure how the Meetups could have been paid for by the campaign or anyone else for that matter. A lot of people believe that Meetup started with the Dean campaign, but it has been around longer than that. I was certainly no Dean supporter, but I joined Meetup around that time for social activities (dining out and wine).

I think that in the intervening years, the web has matured. We'll have to see if it has matured to the point that it makes a difference in the only poll that really matters. It seems that people are finally waking up and that gives me hope this time around.

Drain the swamp!

Guys, you both should write an article about it

it is very nice topic

Interesting read. Thanks

Interesting read. Thanks for the research.

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