McCain to win: 274-264
Submitted by OpenRevolt on Tue, 11/04/2008 - 04:03
I was watching CNN and Fox News for a short while today and they were both talking about whether or not McCain could win PA.
They mentioned Obama's troubles against Hillary and said that he usually always out polled Hillary, but if the margin wasn't about 6+ points then he would not be able to come out ahead (especially in working class states which also happen to be battleground areas).
So I took the latest polls from the RCP (which had good accuracy for the last few elections) and did the math.
Basically what happens is that a few red states become blue, but McCain takes Florida and Ohio to win it.
http://www.forbes.com/2008/05/20/election-candidates-delegat...
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/
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It doesn't matter
what voters think, it only matters which fox got to the voting machines.
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Hell hath no fury
Don't underestimate the pissed off Hillary minions.
"Obamney care," Nuff said.
If McCain wins Ohio and Florida
I will give Obama Iowa and New Mexico, he is far enough ahead. That is 12 of the 16 electoral votes he needs to make up.
He could even win Montana but that is only 3 more. Still needs another state.
He then has to win in one more state that Bush won in 04. Nevada, Colorado and Virginia are his best bets.
But I could see Florida and Ohio going to Obama along with every single toss up giving him a huge victory.
You are completely out of your mind....
Really? McCain gonna win this one? Come on DPers.
We're gonna ignore every poll out there predicting an Obama landslide? From everything I've read, every projection I've seen, McCain has slightly better odds to win this thing than I do.
Remember the primaries?
Obama and Hillary received almost 40 million votes, McCain less than 10 million. 70% of Obama supporters said Hillary was their second choice and 80% of Hillary supporters said Obama was their second choice.
I know some percentage of those Hillary supporters were mad enough at Obama (for not picking Hillary as VP) to defect to McCain), but do you REALLY think more that 50% did? That's what it would take for a McCain victory.
Weak conclusion
Primary does not = final vote
A lot of people don't vote or care about the primaries.
I guarantee you mor than 50 million people will be voting in the final election and that McCain himself will have over 50 million votes.
============================
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http://www.dailypaul.com/node/90198
Glenn Beck Supports NAFTA and taking your job:
http://www.dailypaul.com/node/86643
McCain could win; Palin was
McCain could win; Palin was put on the ticket to get the gun owner vote, and you should never underestimate the gun owner vote.
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Or the abortion vote, or the gay marriage vote
Especially here in CA and other states with Prop 8 next to it.
I'm pretty sure prop 8 will pass which is ironic that this state is blue.
I'd say corruption and control is the only thing keeping this state so blue.
Our Gov is a republican and you can't tell me Orange County is responsible for that and all of the traditional family voting.
============================
Glen Beck -- An Exposed Enemy:
http://www.dailypaul.com/node/90198
Glenn Beck Supports NAFTA and taking your job:
http://www.dailypaul.com/node/86643
either way....we are
either way....we are screwed...
my "Don't blame me, I voted for Ron Paul" bumper sticker arrived yesterday....just in time for the elections...and beyond
"and the truth shall make you free"
John 8:32
Heeeeeeeeee....I"m going to make my own bumper sticker!
Exactly my thoughts!
Ron Paul'08
A slight up turn in a poll doesn't turn a red state blue
That's the problem with your analysis.
A red state will most likely be a red state unless it's a huge difference.
============================
Glen Beck -- An Exposed Enemy:
http://www.dailypaul.com/node/90198
Glenn Beck Supports NAFTA and taking your job:
http://www.dailypaul.com/node/86643
Touche
I was on http://www.thegreenpapers.com and RCP last week doing research on past Presidential elections. With the advent of the Liebold machines, this gem of information in my opinion could predict the outcome later today:
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/G08/contests.phtml
"Since 1976, 6 states have always voted for the winning Presidential Candidate: Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Ohio, and Tennessee. (Reference: 1976-2004 Presidential Election State Voting Trends Sorted by How often a state voted for the Winner.) The polls in these states show 4 prefer McCain and 2 are a toss-up.
Two states, Florida and Nevada, have voted for the winner 88% of the time since 1976. The polls in these states show 1 prefers Obama and the other is a toss-up.
Changes from 23 October to 3 November: We moved Wisconsin from Democratic to Leans Democratic and North Dakota from Toss-up to Leans Republican. Overall, Obama is holding a lead in 5 states carried by Bush in 2004: Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, and Virginia (however we are still showing Virginia as a toss-up)."
I corroborated the polling numbers in the 6 states that have ALWAYS picked the winning Presidential candidate and the 2 states that 88% pick the winning candidate on RCP and indeed those numbers are correct. Judging by this information I am predicting that John Mccain is the 44th President of the United States of America with the help of the Liebold machines.
It is not who votes that wins elections it is who counts the votes that decide elections. Both Obama and Clinton received more than twice as many primary votes as John Mccain did I believe. According to such data it is my opinion that if John Mccain wins then the election was rigged.
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You have to give everything that has any chance of going to
McCain to McCain to get those numbers. My guess is Obama with 322.
I'd love to see it come down to the number of electoral votes in Montana and Montana going Obama by less than the percentage who vote RP.
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Free and Brave
or Cradle to Grave
You can't have both