Predicting the grim effects of the coming depression (feedback desired)
The following is what I predict will soon befall us.
I submit this in the hopes of obtaining thoughtful/constructive feedback.
So please share if I missed anything of significance, or if you find faults in my logic, facts, reason, or presentation.
Thanks !
1) The USG will continue to spend on wars, empire, "stimulus packages", and industry bailouts without limit (expecting different is like expecting a snake to walk).
2) The federal debt now exceeds $10 trillion.
Adding unfunded Medicaid, Social Security, Medicare, veteran's pensions, and similar obligations,
the total is $59 trillion, or $516,000 per household (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_public_debt).
3) As our foreign creditors come to realize that such a debt can *never* be paid, they will stop lending to the U.S.
4) The US will be rendered bankrupt, triggering the collapse of the dollar and a drastic reduction in imports.
5) The people will rush to purchase *real assets* before the dollar is rendered completely worthless,
first emptying/closing the banks, and then the stores.
6) Without access to banks, most businesses will be unable to make payroll and be forced to close
(including food distributors and trucking companies).
7) Food distribution will break down.
The people will seek food from "local sources", but will find that *very* few such sources still exist today.
This will lead to a massive disaster far worse than the last Great Depression:
In the 1930's, there were family farms everywhere (many of which were near self-sufficiency).
Today, the few farms that *do* exist are extremely dependent on technology and supplies from outside sources.
If a critical part breaks that can no longer be replaced (see below), or fuel and/or grain supplies are disrupted, the farm shuts down.
In the 1930's, technology was relatively simple.
Most machines were composed of basic parts of limited number (the great majority of which were manufactured in the US).
Today's machines are very complex and are composed of a huge number of parts from all over the world.
Thus, the failure of one part manufacturer (or the cutoff of their imports) can easily trigger the failure of all who depend on that part.
And this problem extends to *power plants* (which is why I stress the importance of a water filter).
In the 1930's, the US population was around 125 million.
Today, it is 300 million.
So even if we all knew how to live off the land, it is questionable as to whether the land could
sustain so many without the super-efficiency of today's modern/highly-technological farms.
In the 1930's, we had a strong manufacturing base (and thus were not dependent on imports for our very survival).
Today, we make virtually nothing (and have largely forgotten how to do so).
Hence, it will be extremely difficult to "boot-strap" our way back to prosperity.
In the 1930's, people possessed incredible know-how:
They knew how to build and repair things.
They knew how to farm.
They knew how to hunt and dress game.
They knew how to preserve food.
How many of us posses such skills today ?
In the 1930's, we were generally a moral people.
Few resorted to violence or theft to get food.
How do you suppose *today's* Americans will respond when hungry ?





















suicides and homicides will
suicides and homicides will skyrocket
Very good thread!
I would add the possibility/likelihood that some "enemy/opportunistic countries" may decide to invade the US during a crisis such as that, and that would compound the difficulties significantly.
Good thread.
I think it is important to share our expectations of what will happen in the next few years, not just for survival, but in political terms as well.
I'll discuss your predictions one by one.
"1) The USG will continue to spend on wars, empire, "stimulus packages", and industry bailouts without limit (expecting different is like expecting a snake to walk)."
Agreed.
"2) The federal debt now exceeds $10 trillion. Adding unfunded Medicaid, Social Security, Medicare, veteran's pensions, and similar obligations,
the total is $59 trillion, or $516,000 per household."
Agreed.
"3) As our foreign creditors come to realize that such a debt can *never* be paid, they will stop lending to the U.S."
I think that foreign creditors will stop purchasing financial instruments from the US. I think they will "cash out" rather than "re-invest". This will be the first inflationary bomb.
"4) The US will be rendered bankrupt, triggering the collapse of the dollar and a drastic reduction in imports."
Technically, the US won't "go bankrupt". It will simply print fiat money to pay existing debts!
"5) The people will rush to purchase *real assets* before the dollar is rendered completely worthless, first emptying/closing the banks, and then the stores."
Agreed. When people see the stores and banks close, they will finally realise that that something HUGE has just happened.
"6) Without access to banks, most businesses will be unable to make payroll and be forced to close (including food distributors and trucking companies)."
Agreed. See above comment.
"7) Food distribution will break down. The people will seek food from 'local sources', but will find that *very* few such sources still exist today."
Agreed. This will make the US look like Haiti. The US will be forced to beg for food aid from countries like Venezuela and Cuba.
http://www.mises.org/Books/mysteryofbanking.pdf
Would you trade your liberty for a flying car?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IsFfBB2W7IA
What if World War 2 was fought by today's teenagers?
http://ca.youtube.com/watch?v=xiQatiEzz_k
For all of your reasons....
It will be much worse, and it won't just be America.
Libera me, let the truth break, what my fears make--Leslie Phillips
But that man should play the tyrant over God, and find Him a better man than himself, is astonishing drama indeed!~~D. Sayers
There is no difference between an authoritarian government from the right or the left...F. A.Schaeffer