Ready to buy gold?
We're very close to the time. This is going to be the inflection point that changes us from deflation to inflation. Perhaps in the next week, I think gold will see a low in price that will last indefinitely. Translation: This might be the cheapest gold will ever be...in the next few weeks.
The deflation has almost run it's course. It's been almost 6 months, but the dollar has been soaring. The feds thought they had gotten in front of the deflation with the TAF and lower interest rates, but were caught unaware of how much money was being destroyed.
The deflation is almost over...the credit markets have thawed an incredible amount in the past few weeks. I've often said to keep your eye on the 3 month Libor, when it crosses under 2% it means the money pumping is having an effect. It's at 2.18% today after dropping like a stone over last weekend.
The tide is about to shift. Brent crude is at $55/barrel today, which is the break even price for most new wells. Gold is at $727, and it should continue to drop a little, but this is pretty close to the bottom. It may cross under $700, but it will not be there very long.
Welcome back from the looking glass...things are going to start looking more normal pretty soon. I wouldn't be one of those that's talking about $1200 gold before the end of the year...I think that's being overzealous. Before the end of next year, perhaps...in 5 years, almost definite.
If you're a gold bug...this is the time to buy. You may never see gold this cheap again in your lifetime.
U.S. Mint Cuts Collector Gold Coin offerings
http://seekingalpha.com/article/105328-u-s-mint-makes-drasti...
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
“The Roots of Violence: Wealth without work, Pleasure without conscience, Knowledge without character, Commerce without morality, Science without humanity, Worship without sacrific
----------------------------------
"The essence of freedom is the proper limitation of government". ~ Founding Fathers
If I had the money, I'd buy
If I had the money, I'd buy gold
"Might does not make right"
Yeah, if I could actually buy gold...
I would love to buy gold (or silver) at their spot prices.
As near as I can tell no one can.
******************************
Money As Debt
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vVkFb26u9g8
******************************
******************************
"Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive."
spot
that's just the last price of a paper transaction. someone offered, another party accepted.
spot price is simply a measuring stick to be used against all the different forms of gold and the trading of gold.
want to buy at real close to spot price? go buy a brick of gold from tulving or someone similar. you'll get real close to spot price. you'll need some serious cash.
you want to buy a single gold american eagle? you won't be nearly as close to the spot price
there are premiums involved due to volume, to middlemen, shipping, handling, volatility, risk, perception, you name it.
you can find gold at spot+$15 (at the moment that would be $740 an ounce), you're gonna have to buy a large quantity to get that price.
silver can be bought at spot+59cents, again be prepared to pony up.
JZneff ...
I did not read this post, because I figured it was another rediculous thread.
I only realized it wasn't by tracking Republicae and found out that he had commented on it and the thread author's name was on the track record.
Just an observation. Do as you wish, but if you would have put your name in the title I would have clicked on it the first time I saw it.
I agree with you for the most part and have posted several weeks ago that I thought gold would see $1000 by February.
Having said that ...
Long term, if we go into a depression, look for $500 gold, but that is still more than a year away.
WAHOR!!
http://www.dailypaul.com/node/48994
WAHOR!!
http://www.dailypaul.com/node/48994
I'd be a hypocrite
I just made fun of you a few days ago for putting your name in the title...I started a thread titled Rhino: Abe Lincoln and Harriet Tubman had a love child, here's proof...and linked to a video of George W saying very dumb things.
I think we're going to avoid a deflationary depression...they are going to err on the side of printing too much money rather than too little, and bring about some inflation. A deflationary depression is even less likely now that Captain Change is in the White House.
Gold at $1000 by February is possible...i'll stop short of saying likely, but definitely possible.
More than likely, we are going to see moderate economic growth in 2009, and inflation returning. It will probably get to the point of stagflation before the nation gets their head out of their ass.
What do you think about the war on drugs?
How about Operation Wall Street?
Shout it today!
http://www.youshouts.com/index.php
moderate economic growth???
moderate economic growth??? don't make me laugh! we are going to have an inflationary depression..this thing will drag on for years because of the idiots in government and banking!
"When governments fear the people there is liberty. When the people fear the government there is tyranny."
-Thomas Jefferson
I am more concerned about the return of my money than the return on my money. --Mark Twain
“A prudent man foreseeth the evil, and hideth himself: but the simple pass on, and are punished.” (Prov. 22:3; 27:12 KJV)
Hey McCain-----┌П┐(◣_◢)┌П┐
Ready for another prediction?
We are going to have a GDP decline through the 1st quarter of 2009, and perhaps the second quarter. The third quarter GDP will increase.
We'll meet the clinical definition for a recession, but we will have GDP growth in 2009.
It'll drag on for years, but it's not going to get much worse. Unemployment should peak before June, and next summer you'll see the first increase in home values month to month in a long time.
What do you think about the war on drugs?
How about Operation Wall Street?
Shout it today!
http://www.youshouts.com/index.php
WOW!!!
Now that gets to the heart of it.
As of today I think you are correct.
Remember, the Keynsean model is collapsing. A new model will have to be constructed.
If you are correct, then I can only assume that freedom will take a step back for a time.
Which seems more than probable.
WAHOR!!
http://www.dailypaul.com/node/48994
WAHOR!!
http://www.dailypaul.com/node/48994
Like I said ...
Do as you wish.
I saw your post but was unable to respond because I was banned for a few days.
Your criticism was warranted, but I felt my post was needed.
Whether you see or not, or whether it matters to you or not, we have many bigots here and it needs to be discussed in my opinion.
Note: As you can see by reading my threads, my critics frequent them probably more often than those that enjoy my input. This is a good thing. My critics need my thoughts more than those that support my ideals. Of course they will not be swayed by me, but if you plant a seed then that seed can be furtilized by others.
WAHOR!!
http://www.dailypaul.com/node/48994
WAHOR!!
http://www.dailypaul.com/node/48994
Banned?
You were banned for a few days? I didn't know Nystrom bans people.
It was the Jew hater thread, wasn't it?
What do you think about the war on drugs?
How about Operation Wall Street?
Shout it today!
http://www.youshouts.com/index.php
Are you kidding me ...
It was my third time.
Yes, I assume that to be the culprit.
My critics have a habbit of complaining to Mr. Nystrom.
WAHOR!!
http://www.dailypaul.com/node/48994
WAHOR!!
http://www.dailypaul.com/node/48994
Wow
I guess it's kinda a badge of honor...I have yet to get banned.
I'll have to try harder....
What do you think about the war on drugs?
How about Operation Wall Street?
Shout it today!
http://www.youshouts.com/index.php
It seems that some of the subjects I touch on ...
are touchy subjects.
Racism and bigotry, libertarians have long been accused of.
Minarchist had a great thread that got deleted because it touched on some touchy subjects, I seldom see him here since then.
WAHOR!!
http://www.dailypaul.com/node/48994
WAHOR!!
http://www.dailypaul.com/node/48994
Shill.
You hypocritically bring up Jew hating and say we are bigots. You're the only one here who's a shill.
I'm anti Zionist..
Find out if you have a local militia - http://www.uaff.us/
Real Patriots for 9/11 truth -- http://patriotsquestion911.com/
When you say "hypocritically" are you saying ...
that I am a bigot, or are you misusing the term?
WAHOR!!
http://www.dailypaul.com/node/48994
WAHOR!!
http://www.dailypaul.com/node/48994
Chill.
No one has the market cornered on shills. I don't think rhino's ever called me a bigot, and we've shared some disagreements. Unclench your butt.
Freedom Formula: Au + Ag + Cu + Pb
LXXI BC: Ego sum Spartacus // MDCCCLVII: I am Dred Scott // MCMVL: Ich bin Anne Frank // MMX: Je suis Assange // MMXI: Ik ben von NotHaus
Opposing forces
Right now we have major opposing forces going on. Global stock market declines, along with debt based asset writedowns are destroying massive amounts of dollars and causing great deflation. While the fed's printing press is causing inflation. Currently the asset declines are winning and we are getting some deflation.Who will win in the end? Asset prices can only go so low, the fed can print forever (Bernanke has written many papers on money printing and how it can solve any problem, in my opinion he will never stop). I believe once financial instruments finally find their "bottom' we will get massive inflation. When this happens is anyone's guess. A week, A year, 2years? And where will gold be then? I don't know but it is coming.
How about 10, 15 or 20 YEARS?
"Only a virtuous people are capable of freedom. As nations become corrupt and vicious, they have more need of masters." Benjamin Franklin
---
government of the people, by the people, for the people
---
That depends
10 or 20 years down the line...what this country will look like depends on if this movement wins or dies out.
If we win, we'll be in a eternal cycle of sustainable growth
If we lose...welcome to the People's Republic of America (best case) or the National Socialist Worker's Republic of America (worst case).
See why we must win?
What do you think about the war on drugs?
How about Operation Wall Street?
Shout it today!
http://www.youshouts.com/index.php
YOU ARE SO WRONG, in my opinin, and it's SAD, in my opinion.
"Only a virtuous people are capable of freedom. As nations become corrupt and vicious, they have more need of masters." Benjamin Franklin
---
government of the people, by the people, for the people
---
You seem to be forgetting
You seem to be forgetting the several trillion injected into the economy the last several months adn Ron Pauls warning about the January surprise.
However I hope your right as it might give me enough time to sell my properties
-----
Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin to slit throats. H. L. Mencken
Get Prepared!
-----
End The Fat
70 pounds lost and counting! Get in shape for the revolution!
Get Prepared!
No, i'm not
I'm not forgetting anything. The trillions of dollars injected are the reason that I believe inflation is going to start.
You're forgetting the hundreds of billions of dollars already destroyed, and the trillions that are likely to still be destroyed due to bank writedowns.
What do you think about the war on drugs?
How about Operation Wall Street?
Shout it today!
http://www.youshouts.com/index.php
see my post from Jim
see my post from Jim Sinclair where he calls people like you stupid who think that the trillions printed and the billions destroyed are a wash... static thinking!
"When governments fear the people there is liberty. When the people fear the government there is tyranny."
-Thomas Jefferson
I am more concerned about the return of my money than the return on my money. --Mark Twain
“A prudent man foreseeth the evil, and hideth himself: but the simple pass on, and are punished.” (Prov. 22:3; 27:12 KJV)
Hey McCain-----┌П┐(◣_◢)┌П┐
See your own post
The one where you claimed that Jim Sinclair would easily respond to my critique of his half baked downward spiral formula.
Still waiting for a response.
The billions destroyed? It's going to be 2.5-3 trillion before it's all said and done...so yes, printing 2.5 trillion and destroying 2.5 trillion is a wash.
Sorry, my static thinking in math still thinks that 2.5 minus 2.5 - zero.
Now show me Jim's formula for how 2.5 minus 2.5 = 400 trillion
What do you think about the war on drugs?
How about Operation Wall Street?
Shout it today!
http://www.youshouts.com/index.php
Why in the world does Mr.
Why in the world does Mr. Nystrom ban "rhino" when there's a perfectly good ban that hasn't been enforced (enough anyway) for this prima donna, Sierrahbt?
..................
"The main thing that I learned about conspiracy theory is that conspiracy theorists actually believe in a conspiracy because that is more comforting. The truth of the world is that it is chaotic..." —Alan Moore
You said things are going to
You said things are going to start seeming normal soon. I do not follow you there do you mean as the inflation increases there is going to be a period on it's way up where it seems like normal before the real estate bubble burst then on to hyper inflation?
It don't see it happening that slow when it takes off if Gas prices are any indication it will seem like over night with little or no cooling off period. Where am I going wrong?
-----
Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin to slit throats. H. L. Mencken
Get Prepared!
-----
End The Fat
70 pounds lost and counting! Get in shape for the revolution!
Get Prepared!
Ah, I just remembered
I didn't remember saying things are going to start seeming more normal...but I think i now remember the context.
By normal, i mean that inflation is the norm 99% of the time, and deflation is kinda like bizzaro world. By normal, I mean we're going to get inflation back soon.
I don't think hyperinflation is in our cards in the near future. There's still too much economic activity and not enough printing to warrant hyperinflation. If we don't change our ways, we may well be there, but not for many years.
Gas prices are only one measure of the value of the dollar. They'll probably go back up...not due to inflation but just that they're oversold and $58 is too low.
The real speed of the monetary inflation will be a struggle of how fast can the newly created money trickle down through the market vs. how fast the banks devalue their balance sheets. It's a trillion dollar tug of war and should lead to incredible volitility for some time to come, but the overall path will be a weaker dollar.
What do you think about the war on drugs?
How about Operation Wall Street?
Shout it today!
http://www.youshouts.com/index.php
It is vitally important to
It is vitally important to understand that, as we are now seeing, there are looming and massive inflationary pressures building up even in this deflationary atmosphere. The actions currently being taken by the FED and the Treasury, as they literally pump Trillions, upon Trillions of Dollars into the system is a highly inflationary move. Now, it is very common for markets to discount news based upon certain probabilities that such news will become a reality; as we know, the injections of multi-Trillions of Dollars is already a reality, the question is when will that reality be seen and felt within the general economy. We are already seeing a loosening of credit between banks, the LIBOR is already responding with the injection of lower inter-bank lending rates.
Gold, a superb indicator of things to come, as been relatively stagnate hovering in a relatively tight trading range for several weeks now because we have been lumbering in a deflationary slump, a natural response to what has taken place in the market over the last three months. However, contrary to some people’s “opinion”, the deflationary slump is little more than a wash-out, a natural market reflex in an unnatural and manipulated market. The current deflationary indicators are similar to a storm drain in a fiat monetary system and even in this unnatural market situation, it should serve, though it will not be allowed to serve, a very important element that is necessary to restore balance to the very unnaturally imbalanced fiat economy. With the huge amount of liquidity being injected, and injected again and even more to be injected into the system, it will not prove to be directly or immediately be inflationary, inflation doesn’t just pop into existence.
Now, in a truly deflationary atmosphere, unhampered by inflationary FED policy, the purchase value of the Dollar would increase very rapidly across the board, that has not happened because we are not seeing a completely deflationary trend, but a deflationary slump that looks more like a disinflationary event rather than actual deflation. It is a very mixed bag of deflational elements with stagnating prices on some levels, rising prices on some levels and then decline levels on some prices in various sectors.
The question is, especially concerning the gold indicator, is when or if does gold actually indicate a real deflationary event? I suggest that the gold market has already discounted the deflationary fiat price of gold and we have witnessed that discount over the last three months. Normally, real estate prices appreciate in a similar manner as gold does in an inflationary environment and while it appears that real estate is in a highly deflationary slump, gold on the hand, seems to have stagnated, as I said, it is trading narrowly at the moment.
Now, the problem, as it always appears with a centrally planned economy and monetary system is that the FED will be completely incapable of determining the timing for the removal of excess liquidity and when the credit markets thaw, the flow will begin in earnest. The FED has never been timely on its decision-making or execution processes, it will not be timely on its next move to restrain the flow of a truly massive amount of liquidity it has placed in the monetary pipeline this time around either.
There will be some very interesting indicators by the markets when they begin to anticipate a loose liquidity and inflationary trends, we will begin to see moves that should not be expected in this type of market, at least if it is as truly deflationary as some state. Actually, I heard of such a move today, strangely as it seems, here in Charleston, SC, there was an announcement made of a new massive commercial and residential development breaking ground. The project is expected to take up to 20 years to complete, but the financing has been secured. This is not the reaction a corporation would take it if anticipated a very tight credit market or a contraction in the money/credit supply, this is a highly inflationary indicator that these developers have not only been able to secure credit, but that they see a very loose and easy money period ahead of them.
Personally, I think they are nuts, but it is a sign that the inflationary monetary and easy credit policies of the FED are re-inflating the credit market. That is not a deflationary move on the part of these developers, it is proof that they are going hand-n-hand with the same policies that helped get us in the mess in the first place…the bubble is being re-inflated folks and it is going to be Trillions of Dollars larger than anything we have ever seen before.
http://www.1776solution.blogspot.com
I would remind you that extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice! And let me remind you also that moderation in the pursuit of justice is no virtue. Barry Goldwater
http://militantjeffersonian.com
"Men do not willingly read unpalatable truths of themselves. The People like those best who fool them most, by pandering to their vices and flattering their foibles" Raphael Semmes
You don't like to make this easy on me, do you?
Why can't you just throw up half baked 12 word responses like everyone else... you actually make me read and think a little.
You and I see the same things, but we disagree on the effect and scale of what we're seeing.
I see a lesson half learned. I mean, the banks aren't going to keep their lending standards this tight forever, but I really don't think we'll go back to how loose they were 5 years ago. I mean, any idiot could get a loan with no credit and nothing down. They'll settle on a happy medium. Right now they're being VERY restrictive and risk averse...but that will change once their balance sheets get back in order.
I don't think they're going to the point of reinflating the bubble, more just playing damage control. We reinflated the bubble after the dot.com crash, but I think now Americans are ready to take their medicine and accept a shallow and long lasting economic slowdown.
The fed is likely going to miss their magic number for maintaining credit and not inducing inflation...they're going to err on the side of inflation...but they will shut the spigot off quickly once they see inflation show up. They probably won't respond with interest rate hikes right away, but they'll slow down the TAF window (which has become much faster at printing compared to the old fashioned way).
They'll overshoot, but by how much?
They showed how ready they are to cut off the money flow demonstrated by how fast they killed MZM when the commodity bubble really began to take off. They actually had a month or two with negative MZM.
They turned it back on when the writedowns began to show their ugly face, but I think they really want to cut down on the printing if at all possible, but they're waiting for the right moment. That moment will be too late, and that's why I think inflation is coming.
As far as your Barry Goldwater quote...I have to say that although I have the utmost respect for a great man...a little bit of moderation may not have been a virtue, but it may have pushed LBJ from the throne.
What do you think about the war on drugs?
How about Operation Wall Street?
Shout it today!
http://www.youshouts.com/index.php