Zogby on Hannity's Show: Ron Paul Could Get 15 - 18% in NH
Submitted by Michael Nystrom on Tue, 11/13/2007 - 20:24
Thanks freedom1776 for this one!
On the Sean Hannity radio program, pollster John Zogby said that Texas Congressman Ron Paul could end up surprising the field - and "embarass a lot of the frontrunners" by wildly exceeding expectations taking 15 to 18 percent in the New Hampshire primary.
An incredulous Hannity asked, "You don't see any chance he wins this thing, do you?" Zogby said no.
A Zogby poll in September found Paul with 3 percent of the vote. Three recent polls - St. Anselm, Marist, and the Globe/University of New Hampshire have put Paul at 7 percent.
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Hillbillybruce below nails it...
The polling companies are in quandry, and its not entirely their fault. For several decades, polling companies have had to deal with the fact that we have a very apathetic electorate. So the question becomes: if you are a polling company that wants to produce accurate results (that is, results that reflect what actual voters will do), how do you ensure that the people you are calling are actually going to get off their butts and vote?
Well, for a republican primary, one obvious way is to ask them if they voted in the LAST republican primary. Of course, this would be a fine strategy if and only if that group (people who voted in the last republican primary) is roughly the same as the group that ends up voting in the upcoming republican primary. That methodolgy breaks down, however, if the group voting in the upcoming primary ends up being radically different, which sure looks like that might be the case.
Now, even if the polling companies think their paradigm is breaking down, they still have a problem. Do they go out on a limb and and conduct a poll that reflects the addition of these new republican voters, which could result in radically different poll results? I think not. Better to stay in line with the other polls, because if you are a polling company and you are going to be wrong, better to be wrong with all the other polling companies rather than going out on a limb with a poll and being the only one who ends up with egg on their face. Then, as Zogby did, "float" this idea that Dr. Paul might end up suprising people. As Hillbillybruce correctly noted, Zogby's got his butt covered no matter what now. If Dr. Paul does poorly, everyone will forget about this brief comment he made on the Hannity show. If Dr. Paul does well or wins, Zogby looks like a genius.
In the end, I agree with the Hillbilly: this is big news. This tells you a long-time pollster knows something is going on, and is as far out on the limb as he is going to go.
ZOG
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Zogby is CFR
John Zogby is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). You should take anything this guy says with a grain of salt. He may be trying to raise expectations so high that RP's actual numbers will seem like failure, or at least nothing beyond what was expected. And his comment at the end that he doesn't think RP will go anywhere is probably just more defeatist propaganda ("resistance is futile; you will be assimilated") from the Establishment that he and Hannity both represent.
Paleoconservative
UnHanitized
I used to listen to Sean Hannity every day on my drive home, but now I switch to any other station when he is on. His refusal to even give a pitance of recognition to a real conserative is sickening to me. The same goes for Glen Beck, Laura Ingram and Mark Levin. They have all shown their true colors as neocon propagandist and I am ashamed and embarrassed that I ever listened to them.
I'm Embarrassed Too
I can't believe I used to like that Jerk also and Faux news. It is embarrasing.
I refuse to watch anything on Fox, even a cartoon, and certainly won't listen to Shawn on the radio.
Hannity is an Active Enemy
Did you see how he managed the post-debate show at the last debate? Just a room of about 30 people to agree with him when he suggested; "That post debate internet poll showing Ron Paul winning doesn't really mean anything does it?"
More negative stuff on poll numbers to RP personally when, 45 minutes later, he finally interviwed him. To which Ron Paul just said; "Let's see what the voters in New Hampshire say about that."
Of course that follows a similarly ugly performance at a previous Republican Faux debate.
Oh, and now he accuses the Dems for manipulating and stage managing their debate so HRC comes out on top. He wouldn't know about anything like that.
Veneer
I feel stupid, too.
I guess they were the closest thing to what I believed, so I listened. I even used to watch the Rush Limbaugh TV show!
This election cycle has really washed the veneer off, and you can see the rotten, greedy, evil, unAmerican core of these media whores. It saddens me, but at the same time, I'm glad I can see them now for who they really are.
Same here
I was an idiot for listening to these neo-con crazies.
Me too
I feel really stupid, too. It's amazing that everybody is so brainwashed, and there are so few voices of sanity.
I always thought I was an independent thinker, but now I see I really wasn't.
Outstanding
And there is a lot of time left. Ron Paul is just starting to spend money. People all over the country love the messege that Ron Paul delivers, so the more that hear it, the more will come on board. We know, as Paul fans, what sets him apart, but it is still pretty common to run into people that don't have a clue who he is. Thank goodness that's changing fast.
Now, Ron Paul makes some pretty big statements, like abolish the Federal Income Tax. Who wouldn't be for that? But the problem then becomes, "How you gonna do it?" People aren't convinced that it can be done. This really takes some explaining - and in some detail. You can't make statements like this, and not enlighten the listener. I know Rep. Paul has the answers...........it's time to get specific. Make people go from "How you gonna do it?" to "Dang, we CAN do it!"
alan laney
Ron Paul nuances explained at these sites
"the problem then becomes, "How you gonna do it?" People aren't convinced that it can be done. This really takes some explaining - and in some detail. You can't make statements like this, and not enlighten the listener. I know Rep. Paul has the answers...........it's time to get specific.
________________________________________________
See my post on how to explain Ron Paul's big statements
Ron Paul Myths Exposed & The Case for Ron Paul
http://dailypaul.com/node/7890
"We should have a strong president -- strong enough to resist the temptation of taking power that a president shouldn’t have." --Ron Paul
The income tax thing
As I've said in another post, I don't believe Ron Paul will be able to eliminate the income tax, although I don't doubt for a moment that he wants to. If he brings all the troops home and slashes military spending to what is needed to defend our own borders that will just about balance the budget. (Using generally accepted accounting practices, the federal budget deficit is over $700 billion.)
To eliminate the income tax Paul would have to cut over $1 trillion on top of that. Cutting domestic spending is never popular with Congress nor with large swathes of the citizenry who are accustomed to getting their government checks. Maybe he could get $200 billion of cuts, but a trillion, no.
So why do I support him? Because just balancing the budget and ending the empire would be great accomplishments. And he will push things in the right direction, while all the other candidates will make things worse.
The great thing about the recent coverage...
is that the interviews are starting to focus on ron's policy, not just the same old "So, how do you explain your popularity on the internet?", pointless questions that don't let people know about his ideas.
The income tax issue is HUGE, but you rightly stated that most people are confused as to how it could be done. It confused me when I first heard it. Most people think that income taxes are the governments only source of income, and why not. It's the only one they are personally involved in.
Just explain that only about a trillion dollars is collected in income taxes, and we could eliminate that need entirely just by bringing home all of the troops we have stationed around the globe. Done.
Took a DRIVE, did he?
If Zogby took a drive around New Hampshire, he'd see clearly who's ahead.
Years ago, when a Clinton clone was touted in the polls as being way ahead for his reelection as governor of New Jersey, a glance at all the Whitman signs and bumpah stickahs told me the pollsters were wrong.
All the pollsters had to eat crow after that one.
There are STILL some
There are STILL some "Florio-free in '93!" stickers floating about.
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Registered Republican
Federalist Society Member
REAL Conservative for Ron Paul
Another reason we need RP as president
The reason Hannity is so against Ron Paul is because if Ron Paul wins the election, Hannity will be out of a job! First of all, Hannity wouldnt be able to use the ole republican vs. democrat paradigm anymore. Secondly, Hannity will be exposed as not really being a true conservative... because if he was one then he would support Ron Paul. Just another reason that we need Ron paul as president.. to get this guy off the air! Cant believe I used to be a fan.
Semper Fortis
http://www.jbs.org/
Semper Fortis
Tell talk shows not to paint themselves into a corner
Personally, I'd love for people to concentrate on real research than listen to talk shows, but for now, we should use these shows.
And all right-wing talk shows aren't neo-con propagandists. Neal Boortz actually got me hooked on Libertarianism, conservatism, etc. Boortz agrees with 95% of what Ron Paul does...yet he is a one-issue show...war! So I email him and tell him not to paint himself into a corner by bashing Paul and his supporters. I encourage him to be true to all his opinions. It has been an uphill fight, but he does occasionally give long mature speeches and posts about Ron Paul(http://boortz.com/nuze/200711/11072007.html).
He, like most Pub voters, feel like there is some Islamic army advancing on us. Getting them to talk maturely about Ron Paul and their fears about terrorists is a good way to get them aware of how they are relying more on their emotions than facts.
Zogby is trying to cover his butt here
This is actually some of the most encouraging news I've heard lately! When the establishment starts working to cover their a**es like this, you know they've seen what's coming...
Zogby knows that his poll numbers are inaccurate. Either through deliberate manipulation or just outmoded methodology, or both... (You decide.)
So he is starting to lay the groundwork now, so he can hope to retain his credibility after the first primary results come in - with Dr. Paul completely "outperforming" what the "professionals" like Zogby reported in their polls.
Of course, they still have to lie and make totally unsubstantiated and bogus claims that he somehow "won't win." But that is just their way of sticking to the "party line" because they don't dare say otherwise, just in case somehow the sneaky SOB's find a way to prevent Ron Paul from winning the primaries.
Yep... This is VERY GOOD NEWS indeed! In fact, I'd say that, from reading in between the lines, the neocons and their associated rabble have practically conceeded NH to Ron Paul!
We're gaining ground, troops! But the battle is far from over... Just add these good tidings to your ammo belt and press ever onward with the Ron Paul rEVOLution! :)
There are no truly accurate polls
The subject says it all. Especially when it comes to this campaign season. The primaries are all about turnout, and it is impossible, IMPOSSIBLE to measure turnout with a telephone poll. I would say that an internet poll would be somewhat more accurate because you have to go to some effort to vote for your candidate in an online poll. Telephone polls require no effort on the part of the voter, but actually voting in the primaries takes effort.
One thing I will say though, is that Ron Paul supporters are going to vote in droves, come hell or high water. And the neo-con vote will be broken up among all the other candidates.
As long as all the neo-con candidates stay in the race, Ron Paul could easily win the primaries
an internet poll...
would be inaccurate, because the voters would have lots of info at their fingertips, unlike @ the primaries. I went to the local elections (11-12-07), planning to write-in a friend for county commissioner. I stepped into the voting booth, and forgot his name. I remembered before I left- the polls weren't busy.
Zogby polls
There is an article on the Zogby site where he himself says the phone poll is not accurate anymore and the same goes for Internet.
This Is Good News!
THis is good news! Since the 'Old 20th=century polls' are always a lagging indicator, and certainly skewed older, rural and poorer, then we can probably take this as an indication that Ron Paul has support signifigantly higher than 15-17%. The huge uptick in numbers so quickly also means that Ron Paul has the fastest growing support of all candidates! I dare say most of the Ron Paul supporters out there are NEVER called on an old-fashioned land-line poll, since they either have only a cell, or are too busy out supporting Dr. Paul's candidacy!
ANd I think they call my 85-year-old Aunt Tillie for every poll! She just tells them she's voting for Stalin, so they put her down as a Rudy supporter...
xtrabiggg
++++++++++++++++++
xtrabigg++++++++++++++++++++++++
I heard this today while driving...
it was great... Hannity paused with awkward silence for a while, I'm sure he broke out in a sweat before responding with 'you don't think he could win do you?' I laughed out loud! His life must have flashed before his eyes!! LOL
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it is going to be so sweet...
...when Dr. Paul brings in over 50% of the votes.
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Let's call his radio show every day
and expose him for what he is: a con artist.
How to get past the phoniness
that Hannity puts his callers through. No one can get on without saying 'Sean's a great American'.
If you could get past all the prelims without gagging (which rules me out) , when you finally get on, start by saying "Sean you're a phony American.'
Don't bother
He's a professional propagandist and it would be like casting pearls before swine: not worth the effort.
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Support the Read the Bills Act and more at DownsizeDC.org
http://downsizedc.org
You won't be taken seriously
He'll interrupt you and contradict everything. And if you call the Hate Hannity hotline you'll just be made fun of. Detractors of his message are laughed at, not taken seriously, on his radio show. I used to be a fan.
Hannity's at it again
I just went to Hannity's website to see if there was anything on this and I stumbled across this forum entry (from somebody who labels himself a Great American, ironically):
Hannity did give Ron Paul a chance to state his position.
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And Paul just flopped
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xEZO7MPxJIs&NR=1
I had not seen this clip, but in it...you can clearly see Ron Pauls spine wither as hannity pulled Alpha male on him.
You can see his body language...he is intimidated by hannity...who is a pundit...Can you imagine Ron Paul debating a real honest to God Politician.
After seeing this, there should be no doubt left in your mind....
Ron Paul is not the right guy for the Republican ticket.
And then there's a lovely (detect sarcasm) banner of RP at the bottom of the page.
Am I right when I say Hannity closed his forums to RP supporters? Too bad if that's true ... this guy could use a lesson in RON PAUL!