0 votes

Crisis, Levithan, and the 4th Turning

Our host has reviewed the book The Fourth Turning on his site and I would suggest everyone read it.

It is one reason, that except it might be slightly early, that a Ron Paul presidency is a certainty.

The part of the cycle we are about to encounter is the Kondratieff winter, or what the authors of the 4th turning call "Crisis". It happens every 4th generation, and was the origin of our revolutionary war (tax and regulation), the civil war, the great depression through WW2, and now.

Paul is the prophet. He has been compared to Gandalf. What the authors say is all those childrens stories take few forms, and one is the wise elder mentoring young heroes. The iGeneration. (The me generation speaking to the iGeneration if you will). He is the right person with the right message (and his total candor and honesty) speaking to the right people (Youth hungering for exactly that - they want to restore the shining city on the hill).

If things start crashing before the votes starting, his election is a certainty. And watching the summer of 2007 echoing 1929 or 1987 is a good sign it might happen.

Beyond that, I trust in divine providence. We ask how, but the only answer is to just do what is right and honorable and trust God to provide - yet it took the founders 10 years to throw off the British so fortitude might be the most important virtue here.

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.

The last time a real

The last time a real Conservative ran for President was Barry Goldwater. If you look at the Fourth Turning ideas, at the time Goldwater ran, the underlying trend was from Conservatism to Liberalism. He was swimming against the tide.

Now the tide has changed and the flow is away from Liberalism toward Conservatism, so Ron Paul is swimming with the tide.

As his message reaches the masses, his poll numbers should show the results. Remember he is on an exponential curve with an extremely high rate of growth and we are just at the birth of the curve. The biggest gains come toward the maturity of the curve.

"Bend over and grab your ankles" should be etched in stone at the entrance to every government building and every government office.

I believe that the Fourth

I believe that the Fourth Turning framework is valid, and that the "crisis" when history is written will be the oil crisis which is now developing.

Once world oil production enters the downside of the oil production curve, exporting countries will need their declining production to run their own economies and it will only take a mere decade for exports to work down to nil. Since the US imports 60% of the oil used, you can imagine the effect. (Why do you think Blair, Cheney and Bush cooked up the takeover of Iraq, with its third largest world oil reserves?) Add this to the continuing decline in the oil produced by the US and add the relentlessly increasing cost of acquiring what oil we can get, and you have a three part formula for the end of the industrial age within the next two or three decades.

Ron Paul thinks the best shot any nation has is free markets, irrespective of external reality. Interference by government only will make this or any problem greater. Already government subsidizing a non-solution like ethanol is draining resources away from the free market, plus having an additional effect on food prices.

In the Fourth Turning framework, Ron Paul is from the Silent generation which ended in 1943. He, was born in the 1930's. Whoever is elected in 2008 will take the blame for what is to come, but Ron Paul is likely our only chance to get a framework of freedom reestablished so that we might avoid civil war at the culmination of the crisis period. Election of one of the collectivist candidates (all the others) will keep us on the march away from freedom. Anyone who is elected in 2012 or 2016 will likely come out of the uncompromising Baby Boom generation, almost assuring civil war which will be hard to avoid in any event given the likely life threatening economic calamity that will be ripe by then.

I also recommend that you read the Fourth Turning, although I found it a tedious read. As to the oil crisis, I recommend you avoid exploring the topic as it is highly depressing. Maybe you can just imagine something more pleasant as the crisis, perhaps a 1930's style depression for example, the mechanism for which "stormrunner" describes in his reply.

"Bend over and grab your ankles" should be etched in stone at the entrance to every government building and every government office.

Interesting, but...

I'm rather suspicious of this horoscopic analysis. In the first place, looking strictly at the scope of the several governments in the U.S., one can hardly argue with a straight face that the U.S. has cycled through eras of small/constitutional and large/intrusiveness. The trend has only been one way, and any setbacks towards liberty have always been small blips in the great scheme of things.

Secondly, and more importantly, lacking scientific and testable definitions of vague terms such as those used in the article to identify social passivity and upheaval, it becomes an impossibly subjective task to identify such trends in U.S. (much less Swedish, Japanese, or Chinese) history. However, were I to guess, I would suspect that, were we given good definitions, we'd be hard pressed to find a coherant 4-generation trend or pattern among all or even most human societies.

As I suggested, it seems to be a bit like making up a horoscope-- vague definitions allow flexibility in application to actual facts at hand, leading one to assign credibility to an analysis which does not deserve it.

Just my 2 cents -- Go Ron Paul!

Ron Paul is good.


Tom Young
"...and any setbacks towards liberty have always been small blips in the great scheme of things." OMG
That doobie must be the size of the state of Arizona.

Tom Young

horoscopic analysis

Kondratieff winter is not horoscopic analysis it is economic cycle theory similiar to Dow theory. There have been several accounts from individuals that timing within the Debt-Based Monetary system is a function of, that for every dollar lent into existence a proportional amount of monies must be printed to service this new debt, this creates a parabolic rise in the supply of money. At some point in order to salvage the system the spigot must be turned down, way down, or hyperinflation will ensue. When the spigot is closed off there is no longer enough money in the system to service the debt. As all money is created in debt the mere appearance of a large enough credit contraction, rouses the deflation part of the cycle. Economic Depression leads to mal-content in society which then leads to fright and ease of manipulation, the degree being proportional to the severity. Of course no one knows when or if or to what degree this will occur because the people that control the spigot are not going to telegraph it. Any problems with these, what would seem to be incredulous concepts refer to the recommended video list, specifically The Money Masters then for a description of the mechanics Google Video --- Money as Debt no need to take my word for it. Note these concepts were also endorsed by the late Milton Friedman," Nobel Laureate in Economics.

These concepts are essential to understanding the Dr's animosity toward the FED and IRS, you cannot fully understand the doctors cure without studying the patient's illness (the exercise requires about 4 hours you might start with Money as Debt only 40 min. a real eye opener.)