Will the dollar really collapse in 2009-2010?
I've been working on a short-term investment strategy and have been listening to a whole lot of Peter Schiff and Jim Rogers. Both are predicting a major collapse in the dollar, and while I agree with them for the long-term, I'm having trouble understanding why they think this will happen in the next one-two years. That's because our debt appears to be serviceable.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_United_States_federal_budget
This is a link that outlines the federal budget for 2008. In 2008, the federal government took in $2.66 Trillion. Take out a mandatory $927.2 Billion to pay for social security, medicare and medicaid and that amount becomes $1.7328 Trillion dollars. The interest on the national debt is $261 Billion. This is mandatory, so we pay the interest on the debt before we pay for anything else. With that logic, the interest on the debt is roughly .261/1.7328 or 15%.
I know that's all technical mumbo jumbo, but essentially, our government is paying a 15% interest rate on its debts to its foreign debtors. In theory, so long as we can pay this, our lenders will be satisfied and keep lending to us. If they keep lending to us, i.e. buying our bonds, then the dollar should remain reasonably valued.
I agree that in the long term, say, the next 10-20 years, if we continue on the path of reckless spending, not balancing budgets and ignoring the threat of ever-increasing social security payouts to aging baby boomers, the interest on the debt will sky rocket and we'll be in for a world of hurt. But as of the next two years, I think we have enough wiggle room to assume that our lenders won't suddenly abandon us.
Is my logic correct? Flawed? What am I missing?





















There's no question hyperinflation is coming.
It may not (hopefully) reach the proportions of the Weimar collapse, but I can't see how the deficit could be demonitized without at least a 100-200% increase in the inflation rate.
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If I spend more than I earn, what happens to me?
Obviously, I get into debt. Can my debts continue to get ever larger without end?
No. Of course not. There is always a limit. For an individual who runs up his credit cards there is always a day of rekoning.
What happens when my cards are all maxed out and I am refused a new credit card?
The difference with the national debt is that goverments rarely default. They just print money to cover their obligations!
When the government bond ponzi scheme collapses, hyperinflation will become a day-to-day reality.
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it obvious
the dollar is on a collision course with doom. sooner than later.
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woo hoo!
Re: Will the Dollar Really Collapse?
If the dollar collapsed that would not be the end. I would say that it would be the easiest way to clear the debt that the U.S. had. Unfortunately, if the dollar collapsed people that had cash they also would lose from the devaluation. It would be the win-win situation for those that did not have any cash and owed money, and for the government to start over with no debt.
I am coming from a country that experienced twice devaluation of the currency. It definitely was not a nice experience for those that had built their savings for entire life. It hit hard people that were about to retire or already retired, and those holding their savings in the currency that collapsed. It hit my family too.
Since the United States' debt is in its own currency and has sold long term bonds for a low rate, so then devaluating the dollar will make it much easier to repay the debt because we will pay them back tenth or less for the dollar that they have lent to us. Technically that is possible. Either the government could initiate that or other countries national banks would sell their dollar positions and trigger the collapse of the dollar.
Some people would say that if such thing happened that would cause no other country to lend us money anymore, or it might keep the interest rates in double digits for long time. I agree with that, however, which situation would be better? We to keep paying billions or later trillions in interest and slowly going to the point of bankruptcy, or just make others to lose more, instead we to be the only ones to pay for it.
Soon or later we will come to that point, better now than later. The United States is a leader and I assume that no other country would be able to harm or threaten us. We should think about our interests first than thinking what China, Japan, and all Gulf Countries would lose.
Good Analysis
Nice job looking at the budget. You're points are well taken and based on reason. But that's part of the problem. Our Congress is not looking at the budget and the mounting deficits. They aren't using reasonable accounting (as you did) they are just looking at what gets them elected next time around. The lesson they are (erroniously) learning is that they can keep giving away Trillions w/ no consequence. They are wrong, of course. Almost all nations that have piled up huge deficits, backed by fiat currency have collapsed. The collapse of the dollar will happen, if they remain on the present course and that will lead to the collapse of the US, then world economy. It may take decades to recover to something above mere subsistence.
The good thing. It doesn't have to happen. We can still rein in gov't spending and return to being a nation of producers and savers, if we can only get back to a sound money system. I'm hopeful, but the signs are not looking good.
"..shall not be infringed."
"..shall not be infringed."
Good Points! See Iranian Oil Bourse...And our government...
... insists the problem is about Iran's desire for nukes! Here is where their real fears lie!
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/JB21Dj07.html
http://www.energybulletin.net/node/32086
http://www.energybulletin.net/node/12125
"Whenever I despair, I remember that the way of truth and love has always won. There may be tyrants and murderers, and for a time, they may seem invincible, but in the end, they always fail. Think of it: always"
Gandhi
"Liberty tastes sweetest to those who fight for it, and most bitter to those who work to deny it!"
LearnRonPaul
Off The Rails
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page3.pdf
What took 25 Years (800 Billion), now took just 2 months (+800 Billion).
It is now hyperbolic. And it ain't coming back.
Dream what ever you like.
Hyperinflation is now.
Not if you understand what's happening, in my opinion. See these
"Only a virtuous people are capable of freedom. As nations become corrupt and vicious, they have more need of masters." Benjamin Franklin
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http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_FiNhXIv5StE/SRmZMSYuTLI/AAAAAAAADY...
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_FiNhXIv5StE/SRmZPg76weI/AAAAAAAADY...
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_FiNhXIv5StE/SRmZbixE-1I/AAAAAAAADY...
government of the people, by the people, for the people
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"In my opinion..." Welcome back GREEDisBAD.
http://brits4ronpaul.blogspot.com/
http://lpuk.blogspot.com/
http://northwestlibertarians.blogspot.com/
Yes, the debt is
Yes, the debt is serviceable, for now.
But one problem with your math is that we are not paying a 15% interest rate on bonds - it's just that we have so many bonds outstanding that the interest eats up 15% of our remaining $1.73 trillion after SS/Medicare/Medicaid. The real interest rate for long-term bonds has hovered between 2.75 to something over 4 lately.
Two big things you seem to be missing:
1) The base monetary supply has increased by something approaching 40% over the last year. This erodes the value of every dollar and makes bonds into losers strictly in terms of purchasing power - in other words, the $1 million put in bonds 5 years ago now is worth less in purchasing power.
2) The effects of a shift in the global reserve currency. Right now, oil from OPEC, other commodities, debts to IMF and World Bank, etc., are denominated in US dollars and are paid for using US dollars. This accounts for much of the rally of the dollar in the current economic situation, since everyone is trying to get into the reserve currency to buy goods/pay debt. What happens if enough powerful economic players get sick of the effects of #1 above and say "OK, we will now only trade goods in Euros or yuan"? Everyone will get out of the dollar and buy Euros or yuan, and the dollar will sink fast. This situation is HIGHLY likely, but certainly not a done deal.
In the end, I would advise you not to lie awake at night over the doomsday prophecies, but realize that a currency collapse is very possible and, the way we keep spending money we don't have, perhaps likely. Schiff hasn't been wrong too often lately, so I would keep his thoughts in mind.
See Iran's Oil Bourse - Says it all!
http://www.atimes.com/ati...
http://www.energybulletin...
http://www.energybulletin...
"Whenever I despair, I remember that the way of truth and love has always won. There may be tyrants and murderers, and for a time, they may seem invincible, but in the end, they always fail. Think of it: always"
Gandhi
"Liberty tastes sweetest to those who fight for it, and most bitter to those who work to deny it!"
LearnRonPaul
I hear "dollar collapse" so often, but I don't hear collapse
"Only a virtuous people are capable of freedom. As nations become corrupt and vicious, they have more need of masters." Benjamin Franklin
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against what?
Commodities?...when the U.S. economy collapses and takes the world wide demand with it?
Against other currencies?...when the U.S. economy collapses and takes the world economy with it?
Against gold and silver?...when taxes and over $50 trillion dollars of debt must be paid in U.S. dollars?
Personally, I cannot think of what the dollar might collapse against. But I don't need Republicae's mile long hot air post, so Republicae, please do not reply to me.
government of the people, by the people, for the people
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Its not just the US$ collapsing GREED. Its all fiat money.
Haven't you watched any Ron Paul videos?
http://brits4ronpaul.blogspot.com/
http://lpuk.blogspot.com/
http://northwestlibertarians.blogspot.com/
So, you don't want the truth if it's more than one sentence?
What happens after that? Do you suffer from attention deflation?
Ron Paul "Sign Wave Across the USA" -- November 5th!
Printing money to compensate trade imbalances
Here is a good blurb from wikipedia
In the current scheme of fiat money, the U.S. government is free to print all the money it wants. Consequentially, the government cannot technically go bankrupt as any debtor nation can just issue more money through a practice known as seigniorage.[52]
If there is a gross imbalance between the amount of new money being brought into circulation and the amount of economic goods that are represented by an economy, then there is an unstable situation that can lead to hyperinflation.[53] This has been observed in smaller nations such as Argentina in 1989; the International Monetary Fund and World Bank try to end such crises by working with the problem country to institute sound economic policies and restore faith in the international community that the country can again service its debt with a stable currency.[54]
The interest rate offered on new bond issues is the one that clears the market. On December 13, 2006, the U.S. 30-year treasury note had a rate of 5.375%. Were investors to become concerned about the future value of the US Dollar, they would demand a higher interest rate on US bonds to compensate them for the risk they are assuming.
yes, all things are possible
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/12eab3b4-bf06-11dd-ae63-0000779fd1...
"The current strength of the dollar is temporary and the US currency risks a hard landing in 2009, according to a team of United Nations economists who foresaw a year ago that a US downturn would bring the global economy to a near standstill.
In their annual report on the world economy published on Monday, the economists said the dollar’s sharp rebound this autumn had been driven mainly by a flight to the safety of the international reserve currency as the financial crisis spread beyond the US.
The overall trend remained a downward one, however, reflecting perceptions that the US debt position was approaching unsustainable levels. An accelerated fall of the dollar could bring new turmoil to financial markets.
Investors might renew their flight to safety, though this time away from dollar-denominated assets, thereby forcing the US economy into a hard landing and pulling the global economy into a deeper recession,” the report said.
The UN team said that, as the financial crisis spread beyond the US, there had been a massive shift of global financial assets into US Treasury bills, driving their yields almost to zero and pushing the dollar sharply higher. At the same time, however, the US’s external debt had risen to new heights that could provoke a dollar collapse."
We're adding trillions in the bailouts
That interest rate goes up when our credit rating gets downgraded. As unemployment goes up, we lose business taxes, income taxes, tariffs, etc... Our ability to service that debt will become impossible short of hyperinflation due to printing money. Debt payments go up, income goes down. Not rocket science. We can't even fund the baby boomers unfunded liabilities in a good economy. They started retiring last January.
exactly. The debt to GDP
exactly. The debt to GDP ratio is gonna flip like a whopper at one of our service sector economies Burger Kings.
Of course no one knows what
Of course no one knows what the future holds, but you make a strikingly different argument than the foaming at the mouth full-on panic coming from our news organizations.
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Truther?
No, sir!
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"The main thing that I learned about conspiracy theory is that conspiracy theorists actually believe in a conspiracy because that is more comforting. The truth of the world is that it is chaotic..." —Alan Moore
Eh? Hardly anyone on the TV
Eh? Hardly anyone on the TV is talking about collapsing of the US dollar. They are all shits and giggles at how it's *rallying*. Only guys like Schiff and Rogers are talking about how this rally isn't going to hold and they are looked at like morons and doomsayers.