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Ron Paul Hits 3% in Gallup Poll
Submitted by antiwar on Tue, 07/17/2007 - 13:44
in
Ron Paul is showing up in the latest Gallup Poll at 3 percent, at fifth place (sixth place when Gingrich is included). |
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Pajamas Media Poll?
So does this mean that he's back on the Pajamas Media Poll? hm.
RNC caller didn't like this
RNC caller didn't like this message. Found this on another forum.
"Just got this phone call at work:
RNC: "Hello, we understand you are a registered Republican. Is this correct?"
RD: "Yes, I'm supporting Ron Paul."
RNC: (Without further comment) CLICK"
http://www.patriotscorner.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=2873
I guess this means that
I guess this means that Pajamas Media is going to have to put him back on their poll. Ha ha ha.
Pajamas Media
This website is run by 13-year old friends of Michelle Malkin. They are immature neocon whiners who can't stand the fact that Ron wins every week.
I say we simply drop them from sight and get to work promoting Ron in the flesh now.
Get off your computers, join your Meetup and check out your summer events where you live.
That is what we are doing in NH! I plan to work at least one if not two events each weekend, either with a table display, literature on the GOP table or sign wave or all three...old home days, fairs, festivals, and independence celebrations, fireworks displays, car shows, farmer's markets...flea markets, there is no end to the possibilities.
We have a list of venues and we're going to hit them in force...anyplace where hundreds of people gather.
We are even going to do the road to NHIS/NASCAR on the 16th of September where a million or more people will pass by our signs...
(My org works as crowd control at the track each year to raise money, this year it will be on the 15th. This is pretty grueling considering we plan to be there that day all day, on our feet standing next to cars whizzing by at 170 MPH, then go back again to sign wave in the morning on Sunday, plus do another poll in Manchester in the afternoon!)
So as I said, get off your 'puters and into the streets.
- Jane (tired but happy)
PS - Mike, maybe you'll come up and join us again soon! We are having just too much fun.
Interesting on the Poll, but so is the campaign donations
I took a look at the fec.gov site for my state and here is what I found:
Most of the other candidates donors have
maxed out their donation possibilites.
For instance below for Mitt Romney:
ALBRECHT, ANNE MRS. SAINT LOUIS MO 63124
02/06/2007 $2100
ALBRECHT, CRAIG R MR. ST. LOUIS MO 63130
05/14/2007 $250
ALBRECHT, CRAIG R MR. ST. LOUIS MO 63130
05/16/2007 $96
ALBRECHT, DOUGLAS MR. SAINT LOUIS MO 63141
02/06/2007 $2100
ALBRECHT, EDWARD D MR. ST. LOUIS MO 63130
05/15/2007 $250
This money is all from the same family and they are
maxed out for the rest of the primary campaign, unless
they give money to other people to donate.
While if you take a look at Ron Paul's
most of them are small donors and still can give.
See below:
AYLWARD, CHRISTOPHER T. MR. LEES SUMMIT MO 64086
05/15/2007 $500
AYLWARD, CHRISTOPHER T. MR. LEES SUMMIT MO 64086
06/01/2007 $81
ESPOSIT, LESA D. MS. BLUE SPRINGS MO 64014
05/30/2007 $250
FERGUSON, MICHAEL GRANDVIEW MO 64030
06/15/2007 $100
HAM, GEORGE E. INDEPENDENCE MO 64055
01/19/2007 $2100
HAM, GEORGE E. INDEPENDENCE MO 64055
03/05/2007 $200
HAM, GEORGE E. INDEPENDENCE MO 64055
05/14/2007 $500
HAM, GEORGE E. INDEPENDENCE MO 64055 Refund
05/31/2007 $-300
HAM, GEORGE E. INDEPENDENCE MO 64055 Refund
06/29/2007 $-200
NARRON, WARREN L. EXCELSIOR SPRINGS MO 64024
05/29/2007 $600
NARRON, WARREN L. EXCELSIOR SPRINGS MO 64024
06/15/2007 $800
PALMER, GENE E. INDEPENDENCE MO 64050
05/01/2007 $100
PALMER, GENE E. INDEPENDENCE MO 64050
06/08/2007 $100
I also noticed that Ron Paul received most of his
money during June, while most of the other campaigns
were in April or early May and then they sputtered
out.
This is very interesting and shows momentum in fund
raising for Paul.
Whats also interesting is that some of the people that
give money to Gulianni also give to Romney.
Check out below - same people but for Gulianni
ALBRECHT, ANNE MRS. SAINT LOUIS MO 63124
06/12/2007 $2300
ALBRECHT, CRAIG R MR. ST. LOUIS MO 63130
06/12/2007 $2300
ALBRECHT, DOUGLAS A MR. SAINT LOUIS MO 63124
06/12/2007 $2300
ALBRECHT, EDWARD D MR. ST. LOUIS MO 63130
06/06/2007 $2300
So who really does have the support? Ron Paul - it
took him alot more people to get 3.2 million at $40
dollars a donation than Romney or Guiliani getting
thiers from maxed out contributors that are actually
getting money from lots of the same people.
This is just in Missouri, but I expect this will
repeat itself nationwide.
Joe
another poll.
Hey, you can hit this AOL poll up if you haven't already. He is at 9%:
http://news.aol.com/elections/story/_a/08-candidates-spend-s...
interesting gallup - proactive strategy
mccain is almost out of the race financially yet polling so well according to gallup, if that many people really cared - they'd would show it :)
mitt romney only has 8% according to this, I thought it would be higher, which is a good thing.
and guiliani is way in the lead at 30% yet, no one likes him at all.
so that just leaves fred thompson, who is undeclared. Ron Vs Fred.
Ron needs to prepare himself for a strike on America, the only possible weakness at the same time his greatest strength, is Paul's non interventionist stance. I feel there will be some call to go into war in Iran, or another strike at home to stir up the people against terrorism - and pro intervention. a strike at home will play into Fred Thompson's hands - big time. I wish I knew how Paul could call their bluff before the bombs come in - so everyone could see it, even grandma - this would surely swing the majority towards Paul.
If no one likes Rudy
...then why is he blowing everyone away in money? He has 10 times as much cash on hand as Ron Paul.
Reason is simple
First, most people that support Rudy are establishment elite. Go to fec.
gov and look where his support comes from and how big his donations are from each. Basically they are sending him contributions from every single person in their family and they are maxing out. So how it works is that 1 person in the family, lets say the father for example will send in $2300.00 for everyone in his family, regardless if those in his family even know or care. So you have 5 family members, you can actually send out $11,500. This is how one rich family can get around the minimum donation laws, and if you go to fec.gov and look up the candidates that is how Rudy is getting most of his money. Heck I am sure that some of these people are not only giving via their family members, but probably even through friends and employees. While Ron Paul on the other hand, is getting tiny contributions from lots and lots of people - averaging $40. It takes alot more people to make 3 million from $40 a pop, than 1 guy giving $10,000 deceptively through his family members.
So Rudy might have more money, but he has less people contributing that money and with less support as a whole.
Money buys power
Money buys power, especially early money. Rudy looks like he's ahead, and principles don't matter to these particular donors. They don't care about his flip flopping on various issues, his cheating/divorces/lack-of-family-values, his connections (albeit indirect) to the mob through Kerrick -- a buddy who shares his megalomania & incompetence, his poor decision making prior to 9/11 such as putting the command post inside the most-obvious target, the firefighters' assessment of his post 9/11 behavior, or anything else but raw power by any means possible. It is our job to fight them. What scares the crap out of them is things like some dude making 100 signs at probably 0 cost to Ron's campaign, or Rachel (ladyjade3 on YouTube). They don't understand how to fight the "coral reef" of this campaign because they think in a world of well-regimented cornfields, instead of coral reefs. They probably understand how to hire-up McCain's expensive-failure discards, so they will, and we will fight them on a shoestring budget with free ideas. And win.
JMR
Coral Becoming Jade...
Yes!!! A "coral reef" that turns into jade...as in LadyJade.
Personal Expenditures
Sarcasmo makes a good point when referring to people making signs on their own, etc. Take a look at how many Ron Paul bumper stickers are being sold on eBay vs other candidates. They number in the 1000's with hopefully all of them winding up on bumpers across America. Also the libertytalk.com site has sold tens of thousands (if not more) of those Ron Paul cards. Add to that t-shirts, yard signs, buttons, etc all bought and paid for not by the campaign, but by private citizens.
It truly is amazing how people will spend their own money to purchase campaign materials for a candidate. It shows how genuine & strong the grassroots support is out there for Ron Paul. I wonder how many people are at home right now making their own Rudy yard signs. I doubt there's many, if any at all.
Granny's getting the message
I guess a few more old folks are getting Ron Paul's message.
I say if he's polling at 10% in the "traditional" polls, he must have 30-40% in real life.
So 3%, to me, translates to about 10% in real life.
Need to keep working at getting the message out to the general public.
QUOTE: "For results based on
QUOTE:
"For results based on the sample of 417 Republicans or Republican leaners, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points."
Wow! This sample is really very small and hence the results unreliable. In other countries, it is common to ask several thousands of people, and before elections even 10 000 persons. But 417, that's too small. And mathematically, the relative margin of error is larger for small fractions (like Ron Paul) than for big fractions (like Guiliani). That's true even if the sample is perfectly representative.
The +/-5% error means that Fred Thompson might actually have greater support than Guiliani. They need a bigger gap than 10% to statistically say that there is a difference between them.
Are there no REAL gallups undertaken?
Any plans for poll by Ron Paul supporters?
Does anyone know of a plan to do an HONEST poll to find out just how many Ron Paul supporters there are out there?
Clearly, from all that we've learned this election season, modern polls are HEAVILY biased against those that aren't favored by the media (both Republican and Democrat).
How great would it be if we could poll a thousand or so average folks, chosen at random, and ask them these questions:
In the next Primary Election, are you planning to vote Republican, Democrat, or other?
If Republican or Other:..
Please answer "Yes" if you have heard of the following candidates: (in alphabetical order)
Rudolph Giuliani
John McCain
Ron Paul
Mitt Romney
For those that answer "yes" they have heard of Ron Paul, ask them:
Of those mentioned, who is your favorite candidate?
Rudolph Giuliani
John McCain
Ron Paul
Mitt Romney
I'd be interested to see the results of that poll... It would tell us a LOT.
I think that "of those that have actually HEARD OF Ron Paul," most would choose him over the other "front runners" - and THAT would tell us that all we need to do is educate the public, and this in turn would tell us that RON PAUL WOULD ACTUALLY WIN THE PRIMARY ELECTION IF ONLY WE CAN GET HIS MESSAGE TO THE PEOPLE.
So... Any plans to do this? A dozen or so committed Ron Paul supporters with good cellphone calling plans could probably knock this out in a weekend for no more than the cost of a few pizza and sodas (& coffee)...
Any takers?
Your polling idea
I would bet that the results would be similar to the latest Gallup Poll because at this stage of the game, polls like this are nothing more than a gauge of name recognition - not potential voting results.
You need to realize that phone poll results are made up of the following people:
1) They must have a landline (10% of people do not, 25% of those 18-24 do not)
2) If they do have a landline and have call waiting (around 50% of the population), they must be willing to answer a call that comes up as "Unavailable". Though I cannot find hard data on this, my guess is most people screen calls from "Unavailable" sources.
3) Then the surveyor needs to get through all their questions in order for the survey to count. So if the person being polled gets another call, the doorbell rings, or whatever happens and the survey is not completed, it doesn't count.
4) Lastly, those you do find that meet criteria one, two and three re most likely lying to you. Here's why. Generally, less than 10% of eligble voters will vote in a primary, but you know a large majority of people if asked "Are you likely to vote in the election" will say yes. Most people won't admit that come election day they will probably not turn up at the polls.
So we have poll results made up of: people that have a landline, will answer an unavailable call, will sit through all the questions, and then will likely lie to the pollster and tell them that they are a "likely voter". And this is what the MSM is using to decide the so-called frontrunners?
Thompson
Support for Thompson exists only, because he didn't open his mouth yet.
Once he will, people will see his nothing new comparing to others.
His polling so high, because Reps don't like what they hear from major Trio. I guess they didn't discover Ron Paul yet.