Falling Prices are the Antidote to Deflation

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In the interests of furthering the great inflation / deflation debate, Rand Paul has sent along the following article from the Mises Institute by George Reisman. Reisman received his PhD from Mises and was an associate of Ayn Rand.

Here is the link to the article, and here is a snip to whet your whistle:

A disastrous economic confusion, one that is shared almost universally, both by laymen and by professional economists alike, is the belief that falling prices constitute deflation and thus must be feared and, if possible, prevented.

The front-page, lead article of The New York Times of last November 1 provides a typical example of this confusion....

Contrary to The Times and so many others, deflation is not falling prices but a decrease in the quantity of money and/or volume of spending in the economic system. To say the same thing in different words, deflation is a general fall in demand. Falling prices are a consequence of deflation, not the phenomenon itself.

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This is nothing but another

This is nothing but another scheme for something that no assurance. People need a permanent good and stable economy. The new government has lots of plan to establish, this also gives no assurance. Sadly, so many losers play the economy. Paradoxonomics are when good situations have bad results, such as if you avoid payday loans and end up getting a bounced check fee that ends up costing you more than you would have, had you just taken out the payday loan. Deflation is a similar thing – deflation within an economy is when the values of goods declines and the value of currency go up. However, there's a big downside: with deflation comes higher unemployment, as employers are forced to let go of employees in order to cut down on operating costs because revenues have fallen. There is good news, however, and that is that the chances of the recession leading to deflation are minimal. But the Feds say things will get worse before they get better, so in the meantime, payday loans can help if you have a financial emergency.

In my Critique of Austrian Economics, I write:

In 1930 Hayek predicted “monetary theory will not only reject the explanation in terms of a direct relation between money and the price level, but will even throw overboard the concept of a general price level” (1967, p. 29).

Yet this general price level is still with us. The 5 March 2003 edition of USA Today reports that, in the past year, prices for gasoline were up 29.3%, fuel oil 21.0%, health care 9.2% and tuition 6.3%, which is bad news because these are all fixed costs that working class Americans are committed to paying. But prices for personal computers fell 20.7%, information processing 11.9%, men’s clothing 3.9% and autos 2.8%, which is also bad news because information processing and the manufacture, marketing and service of computers, clothing and autos are where most people’s jobs are. So what is the response of mainstream economists? They report the arithmetic average of these numbers, 3.3%, and announce that “inflation is under control and there is no sign of deflation.”

Considering his strong words against price indexes (1966, pp. 219-223), if Mises has kept up on the affairs of the living with a posthumous subscription to USA Today, he must be rolling in his grave. This author also writes about this excessive tendency towards aggregation: “The assertion of mainstream economists that the average level of prices in an economy is a meaningful statistic has done more damage to their credibility than any other assertion they have made.... Such an average is not just ludicrous but it is definitionally without meaning, for one need only ask in what units the result is expressed and one has found a contradiction” (1999, pp. 144,149).

Opposition to an average price level belongs to the legacy of Mises, though it was Hayek who put the question to the English:

[I]f we have to recognize that, on the one hand, under a stable price level, relative prices may be changed by monetary influences, and, on the other that relative prices may remain undisturbed only when the price level changes, we have to give up the generally received opinion that if the general price level remains the same, the tendencies towards economic equilibrium are not disturbed by monetary influences, and that disturbing influences from the side of money cannot make themselves felt otherwise than by causing a change of the general price level (1967, p. 28).

Footnote: Did you hear the one about the three economists who went deer hunting? They spotted a deer standing fully broadside to them. The first economist raised his rifle and fired, just missing the deer’s rump. The second economist fired and sent his bullet zinging past the animal’s nose. The third economist did not fire but jumped up and down shouting “We got it! We got it!”

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rand's looking at the glass as half full

in the software industry, we have deflation right now because the labor market for software professionals grew and, therefore, salaries were pushed down.

so deflation doesn't necessarily mean a fall in demand since deflation can happen when the marketplace suddenly gets a lot more vendors; sometimes this forces companies to merge, etc..., because larger companies benefit from economies of scale.

unfortunately, for those pushed out, their school loans, etc..., have to be paid back, etc... so the process is difficult; perhaps schools should start insuring degrees for 10 years, or something, to hedge against a lower than expected employment value.

I think this is a result of outsourcing...

While it is possible that a false over stimulation of demand directly contributed to an over supply, I think the real problem is the over supply throughout the world at much cheaper prices that impacted pushing down salaries...

J

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Prospecting for opportunity in a river of information....
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This tells you how well informed our MSM 'Journalists/Analysts'

This tells you how well informed our MSM 'Journalists/Analysts' are!

From Wikipedia:

"Deflation creates real value in money. Alternatively, the term deflation was used by the classical economists to refer to a decrease in the money supply and credit; some economists, including many Austrian school economists, still use the word in this sense.[2] The two meanings are closely related, since a decrease in the money supply is likely to cause a decrease in the price level."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deflation

Our deflation, by all accounts,

is a decrease in the flow or velocity of money within our system. Put another way, it is not a shortage of money in circulation but a decrease in circulation. This stems from and contributes to a change in public mood that becomes a self-feeding cycle. Because of business failures, job loss, and gloomy economic forecasts there is fear that money spent may not be replaced soon enough to meet our basic needs so it is better to hang onto what we have. This works at the level of personal finances as well as banks and corporations.

How is economic confidence restored? How are people and institutions convinced to spend the money anyway, even if they are unsure of getting it back, thereby priming the pump for an economic turnaround? I have often wondered about the claim that World War II brought us out of the Great Depression. If there is truth to the claim, I think it is this: Faced with a horrifying external enemy and a sweltering anger over "what them Japs did to our boys in Pearl Harbor," a majority of Americans threw themselves into the war effort with everything at their disposal, including their savings and earnings. They were suddenly willing to risk the hardship of not having enough money. They were willing to do without to feed the war effort. Presumably the war produced tremendous action and money velocity in the economy and that set us on the course to recovery.

Whether or not these dynamics were extant, I fear that the same formula will be tried to extricate us from the depression we are entering. There will be a mindset that "war is good" and if no enemy willingly presents itself, one is sure to be drafted via false flag attacks or other manipulations.

Well, that is certainly one possible future for us. Other futures are that the US, with its weakened moral certitude, will willingly be subsumed by world government or be successfully invaded by other, stronger countries per the Russian professor's geopolitical forecast.

What is the psychology behind normal recession recoveries? Is it normal, healthy greed, the desire of businesses to snap up assets at bargain prices and use them to build wealth? I have an idea that some businesspeople are now buying "bargains" that turn into losses because the public mood continues to grow darker and the market continues to fall. Will these failures eventually produce a general phobia about bargain buying that drags out the depression for additional years? How fast can greed overcome phobia? (I use greed not as a pejorative. It is a useful human quality.)

I guess I'm asking for an alternative other than war.

(For the purpose of these musings I have taken the Prechterian step of ignoring the risk of inflation, although I'm by no means sold that massive credit expansion will not cause inflation. Imagine a fully electronic money system. There are zero paper bills in circulation. Everything is credits and debits. Is such a system immune to inflation? Someone please create an electronic-money Monopoly game and let's test this.)

New Hampshire and Ecuador

monopoly game

there actually is an electronic money monopoly game: the fed.

most of our cash in circulation right now is electronic. it's a very very small percentage which is actually cranked out in physical cash.

as for your bargain buying, i think this is a good thing. maybe society needs to be less materialistic and start learning the value of a dollar, even if it is a worthless piece of paper.

economies are a means to an end. the end is human comfort and survival. i don't believe we should all "work" in "corporations" for "dollars" if we can form a society based on self sufficiency, and social interaction is based on exchanging knowledge and building friendships, and not the flow of green pieces of paper, and i especially don't believe we should do so merely so a bunch of bureaucrats can get rich telling us what to do.

if the zeitgeist movement ever grows any teeth, this thing we call "economy" (which is nothing more than institutionalized mass slavery) will be moot.

Does it Help?

With commodities falling, wholesale prices falling doesn't that help the businessman short term. They get the goods cheaper and do not have to sell them cheaper accordingly. When actual prices consumers pay falls then the business hurts.

Or is this a consumer lead deflation meaning less consumer demand all around, so prices are falling to attract more buying. That then leads to the wholesale and commodities to fall.

It is almost like chicken vs egg. I am not sure which started falling first?

Or is this deflation because less money floating around because banks not loaning, which in turn creates all the demand shortage?

.

"With commodities falling, wholesale prices falling doesn't that help the businessman short term."

To some, it helps. For many, they are still paying higher prices in seed, feed, & fertilizer. Couple that with consumer price falling and you will find tremendous margin loss. Shrinking profit margin will also undergo shrinking credit value. In theory, a latent effect this might create would include increased/decreased quality, improved effiency, higher productivity.

However, we have a debt-based economy facilitated buy the ability to expand & contract monetary/credit supply via limitless fractional reserve ratio digitally; the proverbial ball is, of course, in their court.

Sadly...

the ball seems to always be in 'their' court...

The shadow banking system

During the most recent financial boom, there was a shadow banking system that was printing money faster than the official banking system: the hedge fund industry.

Remember the stories of 40-1 leverage? Where did that leverage come from? It was credit that was created (from thin air) to play the financial markets. That credit helped fuel the commodities boom. The commodities boom helped fuel more credit creation, and that caused booming markets. That credit circulated through the economy.

The Arab states, flush with what they thought was wealth, went on buying and building sprees, fueling the boom. Oil, gold, corn, other commodities took off. Just when it looked like it would spiral out of control -- we had the collapse.

40-1 leverage? Not any more, and probably not again in our lifetimes. This was the biggest bubble in history, dwarfing everything that came before it, and now it is over. The investment banks that made it possible are now regulated by the Feds, and they won't let it happen again.

The Federal government is loaning out money, and promising to loan out money to beat the band. But we all know that the government is inefficient. Their efforts, in terms of both speed and size, are a drop in the bucket compared to 1) what private industry was able to accomplish, and 2) the wealth & demand that is currently being destroyed.

The credit that was created from nowhere will disappear back into nowhere. This is the big difference: Credit is not money.

This is why I believe that we will see deflation ravage our economy for at least the next couple of years. I saw it when I lived in Japan from 1990-92.

Caveat: Of course, the future, being the future, is subject to change at any moment. Nothing is set in stone.

That concept was talked about around here

When we were in the height of the inflation fall 08 a post on here made the point that with shrinking housing prices that acutually made "money" disappear from the economy. Because a housing value is only something on paper, when those values dropped all that "money" or really credit leaves with it.

That post was telling up deflation was the next thing. I think I am going to find that post and bump it.

There really is no debate

Deflation has always had its meaning within economics before the current geniuses in government, media, edu-macation, and elsewhere decided to bastardize its meaning in a conscious and unconscious effort to confuse...

Great article. Thank you for posting.

on falling prices

deflation needs to be avoided for the benefit of the financial "industry", and for no other reason.

when prices deflate (in other words, there's less cash, making it more valuable), that means it's more difficult for debtors to pay off loans, since it requires more and more work as time goes on to pay the same amount of debt, even at 0% interest. the result of this is people are more likely to save money, and less likely to borrow it, hence, banks make no money.

john maynard keynes was a whackjob. he used to say crazy things like "we need to reduce the amount of personal savings." pure raw numbers, and no concept of the humanity of such policies. i'm sure we'd save tons of money if we sent all the old people to carousel, except we're not [totally] a nation of deranged psychopaths.

with advances in technology, goods and services should cost less money over time to produce and distribute, provided we don't breed like rabbits and put unreasonable demands on our economy. it stands to reason that yes, prices should drop. and real costs actually do drop, even though our economy only sees this as prices staying relatively flat, or at least not keeping pace with real inflation.

Falling prices are the effect and the remedy of deflation ...

That is what the keyenseans don't get.

The market self corrects by having the symtoms also being the cure.

In a fiat system the symtom is decoupled from the cure ...

Creating inefficiency ... and ultimate failure.

WAHOR!!
http://www.dailypaul.com/node/48994

And also the cause

While we're at it, let's throw that in, too. Falling prices are not deflation, they are the effect, the remedy but also the cause. As prices fall, people wait to make purchases, thus slowing demand further.

I have a good anecdotal example that proves this point ...

I watched the leading indicators such as oil prices to time my gas tank fill ups. If oil fell, I waited a week to fill up my tank knowing that there was a good chance gas would drop.

The same applied in the other direction. If oil went up, I would top off immediately, knowing that there was a good chance that gas would rise in the short term.

WAHOR!!
http://www.dailypaul.com/node/48994

I agree... To a point.

However, I think it is by way of reduction of selection. The demand decreases on a business that creates 40 different types of breakfast cereal. As a counterirratant, demand increases on 4 types of the product they produce while the take away the other options. This stabilizes and causes an increase in monetary cost & value of their product line while reducing company cost and obligations to taxpaying citizen's they employ.---> Represented by increased unemployment.

The falling prices we see now, I believe, is due to liquidation of product line in order to free up creditable assets due to the credit freeze up that has occurred.

I am of the belief that we WILL see increased prices and fewer selections on a dramatic scale. As a compensatory mechanism, we will also see an influx of imported chinese products and variety (much like we have witnessed for the past 20 some odd years.

I've come along way in a year :)

yes that's true

it's cause and effect:

inflation is the increase in the money supply which leads to high prices and

deflation is the decrease in the money supply which leads to lower prices.

they are the opposites of each other.

when you ask some one what the definition of inflation is most likely they will say 'high prices'. most people do not understand why the price is high. they do not realize that the high prices result from too many dollars.

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The reason they don't realize that is because

their salaries have NOT increased. That is why they stop buying and force prices down.

true..

true.. but!!!!
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Whoa!

A lot of interesting stuff there. I love the line in the article; "...keep smiling; it confuses the hell out of them..."