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Peter Schiff Rebuttal- A Response to My Critics
Submitted by captcorona on Fri, 01/30/2009 - 14:42
My popularity on television and the internet has led a very small money manager to use his popular financial blog to promote his fledgling business by attacking the recent poor performance of my long-term investment strategy. The post is causing quite a stir and compels me to provide some badly needed context. » |
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Watch for New Bills
That will signal printing money, instead of or in addition to monetizing debt through the sale of IOUs. Bills in your wallet are old. They needed a new Treasury Secy. to start printing. When they do, it will signal inflation. IMHO.
Sheldon Waxman
sheldonw72@gmail.com
www.thelawyer.info
www.independentcontractor.info
Sheldon Waxman
sheldonw72@gmail.com
www.independentcontractor.info
www.thelawyer.info
What is the likelihood
that some of the complainers are Dodd's handymen? He will be facing a real challenge from Schiff. Try to break his back now.
Colchester, New London County, Connecticut
I'm doing better
since I moved my money over to Euro Pacific. My Fidelity accounts were down about 40% so I moved everything in October to EPC and I am now up 12-14% and getting decent dividends. I think (and hope) I did the right thing.
Investment advice is like your doctor's advice...
It's up to you to follow it. Just because his client's account is down, doesn't necessarily mean it's because they followed his advice. I don't do everything my doctor tells me to do. And I don't do everything my investment advisor tells me to do. Ultimately, I am responsible, and it's up to me to make the decision. If I take someone's advice, and it is wrong, that is my fault, not theirs. No one is perfect, and no one knows everything. I'm sure neither one of them tell their clients that they absolutely have to invest a certain way-that is illegal, and they would be shut down quickly if it happened. To me this is just a pissing contest. I do tend to agree with Peter over the long run. As stated in other comments, his timing may be off, but more often than not, he has been correct.
Math Question
If I bought gold 20 years ago at 800, then it went down to 200, and then to 800 in 2009, how much money did I make?
Gee I don't know but I would like to hear your answer!
?
zero. That's what Peter
zero. That's what Peter Schiff has done. He has been positioned for 2010 since 1982. Just trying to make a point.
"value" of gold
More often than not, a purchase of gold is more intended to preserve wealth instead of create it. If gold spikes up to 2000 dollars an ounce, I would argue that you haven't really increased your wealth..... You just maintained it. If you watch gold go to 2000 an ounce and beyond while you maintain a position in fiat denominated assets, you're actively watching your wealth being inflated away.
You could make a case for the value of gold going up *before* prices are raised due to inflation, in which case if you sell your gold and make purchases before prices go up then you have increased your wealth.
oops!
I didn't see you had all ready answered, my mistake. I think your answer is incorrect though.
PETER VS MISH
OPINIONS ARE LIKE A--H---S ,EVERYBODY HAS ONE.
SO FOLLOW PETER'S ADVICE AND IN TIME YOUR ASSETS WILL STILL HAVE VALUE OR JUMP INTO THE ABYSS WITH ALL THE OTHER "ITS TIME TO BUY" US STOCKS TOUTS THAT ARE OUT THERE AND LOOK SURPRISED WHEN YOUR ASSET VALUES HAVE GONE TO MONEY HEAVEN.
THE PURPOSE OF THIS WEB SITE WAS TO ENLIGHTEN PEOPLE TO THE BASTARDS THAT RUN AND SUPPORT THE FED. PETER SAYS GET OUT OF US DOLLARS WHICH ARE THE LIFE BLOOD OF THE FED . SO IF HE MISSES HIS MARK BY ANY AMOUNT OF TIME AT LEAST WE ARE NOT IN US DOLLARS THAT SUPPORT THIS CORRUPTED GOVERNMENT.WE WILL COME BACK TO US CURRENCY WHEN ALL LIARS AND THEIR TOUTS AND THE FED ARE DEAD!!! END THE FED
DAN
Dan
why don't you check out the DP posting guidelines ...about posting in CAPS ...
AND QUIT YELLING ! !
I would never buy stocks
I would never buy stocks right now. No way. You obviously don't understand the point I'm trying to make. If you are going to enlighten people, they would appreciate the truth. Peter does not deny being down 40% this year. there will indeed be a time to hold gold, that may be now...it was not 2008. Mish pulled a publicity stunt and it worked. He is spreading our message and has a sucessful portfolio to back it up.
you actually lost purchasing
you actually lost purchasing power due to inflation.
Nothing...
You haven't sold it yet!
Interesting question, over my head, look forward to somebody's good answer...
--------
Fossils Rock!
'Cause there's a monster on the loose
I told you!
The last post against him was garbage
his accounts are not down that far
I put my stuff in the high risk stuff and I'm only down 30 - 35% and at the worst was down 40%. Maybe some are down 50-70%, but not everyone is.
I agree that the market is the market and it's about one's choice. We give the market value and we as a group decide where there's going to be value. It's not easy for anyone to predict the future and the trends. It's all a big fat guess when it comes down to it. Schiff or Mish have no idea how the masses are going to move and what outside factors are going to effect the market. There's so much manipulation, corruption, lies, propaganda in this economy and what drives it is total BS.
I agree that ultimately these guys are out there scrambling to bring people into their camp. It's all sales and I'm going to invest with the guy that I like - Peter Schiff. Though he's trying to make the best of it, at least he admits that this is a phony economy.
Mish and Schiff share one thing:
They both like Ron Paul very much. So maybe they can have a debate online or on the air with Ron as mediator. I would like watching that. The point is that although they're fighting each other, they also agree on many issues.
PS is a good debater
It would be good to get the small frys out of the picture and let two heavyweights go at it. Maybe we could get that Cody kid to put it on.
"It's just one big club... and WE ain't in it!"
"Tyrants fear nothing more than insubordination"
"It's just one big club... and WE ain't in it!"
Quick view on Inflation/Deflation/Money supply debate.
Sorry, but I don't have time to stay because I have to travel soon and won't be able to respond to any comments right now.
That said, I would like to address this inflation/deflation debate. This debate needs some boundaries due to the nature of the terms in this debate. I think in order to make sense we must use them in a MACRO sense.
Therefore my definition of these terms are as follows:
Inflation equals an increase in the money supply.
Deflation equals a decrease in the money supply.
Money supply equals the myriad of financial instruments including but not limited to the following items: US Govt Debt Securities(short term bills 30day-90day-1yr, medium term notes 2-5-10yr, long term bonds 20-30yr), Corporate Debt, Credit, Cash, Gold, Silver.
The US Govt. monetizes Debt, that means they take debt and turn it into money via the Banking system, by extending credit, loans, ect to Corporations and consumers. With this in mind I see nothing but inflation in the system.
Remember these are Macro economic forces. Please don't get bogged down in increasing/decreasing prices in different sectors of the economy or this explanation will not serve you well.
I think an individual would be hard pressed to refute that we have had an enormously inflationary surge in the money supply as described above. In other words I do not see any deflation in the money supply, look at all the bailouts and stimulus packages(huge increase in money supply).
I see hyper-inflation with slow to no growth, and that looks to me like Stag-flation. I have got to get moving, have a good day.
look at the supply, measure
look at the supply, measure the supply, talk about the supply, figure out if the supply is shrinking or growing.
it's all very interesting.
i prefer to look at both factors, supply
and demand.
and maybe I mis-use the word "deflation", because technically, people like you want to keep referring to the supply of money.
but the demand for money is high right now. and people are holding their FRNs. the demand for goods and services is low.
So call it whatever little word that makes your cognitive dissonance go away.
So the money supply is inflating.
So what. So is our country experience "inflation" or "deflation"? I let you play the definition game.
You are obviously hung up on words. fine. words have meaning, and I can respect that.
So let me put it in a non-academic way: Nobody is spending. The few dollars that ARE being spent, go a lot further.
Our money supply is inflating, but our economy is deflating, and the velocity of money is slowing.
People seem to get all mixed up with measuring tools and labels.
"Inflation equals an
"Inflation equals an increase in the money (AND CREDIT) supply."
There are many money supplies, all the way from minted coin to who knows what. The one's that are unquestionably growing at behest of the Bed, are the base one's. But as of current, the wider one's, which are much larger, and over which the Fed has much less control, are not growing particularly fast, if at all.
As they are an order of magnitude larger than base Fed money, even tripling base money has failed to prevent wider money from declining. Hence deflation. Of course, there's a limit. If the Fed is committed enough, they can overcome any deflation, but likely only at the cost of destroying the market for US sovereign debt, and with it possibly the viability of the federal government.
Were I not such a hopeless bleeding heart, all concerned about all those who would likely get wiped out for lack of preparing for such an event and all; given the current state of the federal government; I'd almost be tempted to say, bring it on!
You forget about all the
You forget about all the wealth going *poof* as fast as they can print it. they are cancelling each other out for now.
This thread serves only to divide and harm
Both are human, BOTH make mistakes. They are simply in competition with one another; it's too bad they can't coexist better but that is the nature of capitalism and the free market. I will continue to like both of these guys--you do not have to choose between one or the other.
Mish's comment on his blog:
"The WSJ did not present all the facts it had. That is all I have to say. There are a lot of things I know were told to the WSJ such as him encouraging people to borrow against their homes to invest in Europac.
Imagine expecting home prices to decline and suggesting people borrow against their houses.
What motivated me was I was sick of the hype. No more no less. He did not do as he said "invest his clients accordingly".
When you run a non-stop publicity campaign bragging you were right, when you weren't I consider than misleading at best. At best.
Had he not been bragging every week about being right, I could care less about what he did or said. And lots of people I highly respect, congratulated me for what I did.
If he wants to sue me like he threatened, he will get destroyed in court. And many many details will come out that you cannot believe.
I will leave it at that.
Mish"
"There can be only one permanent revolution - a moral one: The regeneration of the inner man."
—Tolstoy
"The body is but a vessel for the soul,
A puppet which bends to the soul's tyranny.
And lo, the body is not eternal,
For it must feed on the flesh of others,
Lest it return to the dust whence it came.
Therefore the soul deceives and despises."
well, I've seen Schiff say a
well, I've seen Schiff say a number of times in a heated debate on TV and his radio program to borrow as much as you can against your mortgage, and spend it on gold or choice stocks.......cause the government is bailing everyone out.
I suppose that I was the only person to hear sarcasm in his voice.
Some people are really thick.
That's the problem with this country, it's too stupid to live.
Someone comes along and gives you the big picture, but only 15% of the country can comprehend the message.
oh well.
This debate is good..
I don't think Schiff is wrong, but he isn't exactly right on everything either. What I do appreciate about Schiff's argument is that he clarifies some of the claims against him- e.g. dollar going to zero is the prime one that always made me feel like he is out in right field.
Schiff explains that's not what he said.
I now feel that Schiff's claims are still in the ballpark and hold merit.
I see debate between these two a great thing and will further help us all to understand the complexities of the system as a whole.
Just my $.02
-------------------------------------------------------
“It does not require a majority to prevail, but rather an irate, tireless minority keen to set brush fires in people's minds” - Sam Adams
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Peace, Freedom and Prosperity. Not War, Welfare and Bankruptcy.
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Schiff was big picture. He
Schiff was big picture. He knows he can't get the timing and correctness on the local changes right. So he doesn't try.
That doesn't mean I don't appreciate Mish. I enjoy reading about his conclusions and predictions on the market. He goes into some timing and detail. It gives me some insight into what and how a smart person looks at when they're looking into the fiscal crystal ball.
But big picture, the idea that this country produces very little, and consumes much, that are currency is basically a mass figment of our imagination, and that we've duped the world....it's all true. Schiff is preaching it. The disasterous consequences might come tomorrow, or they might come 30 years from now. They might come in one sharp slap to the face, or it might come like the frog in the pot syndrome......slow and steady.
We'll probably see several more bubbles, like the 2002 to 2007 event, over the course of the next 30 years. We'll see more deflationary corrections.
Whoever things they are going to time them all...is a damn fool. Provide something tangible, and own something tangible. Know the truth.
Mish isn't big picture. But he's a smart guy and I'll read his stuff.
This site just came to my attention on Myspace
groups. myspace. com/peterschiff
"I don't want to be in a battle . . . but
waiting on the edge of one I can't escape
is even worse"
"I have found that being rich is not about having the most but about needing the least"
As a woman, I am giggling at
As a woman, I am giggling at this cat fight. rrrrrrr! Bottom line is Peter predicted inflation, Mish predicted deflation. Mish was right. The only thing to make money last year was long term government bonds - Mish called that one! Mish fought the bailout. Mish want's to End the Fed. This is just about egos and I find it humorous. I think they should continue fighting and get publicity for everyone.
hmmm, not sure what you
hmmm, not sure what you being a woman has to do with anything. I giggle too. Just not in front of many people. ;-) But I have to disagree with your over simplistic "this one said blue, the other said orange"
I've used both men's opinions and views to formulate my own thoughts on the situation.
If Mish wants to impress me, as being superior to Schiff, then he needs to tell me when this deflationary period will be over.
It's not enough to say "it's orange", or "it's blue".....you have to outline the time periods.
Inflation is coming. There. I'm a genius. You see I just predicted inflation is coming. Right?
Well it is?
But how hard is that? With us being in the middle of heavy deflationary cycle, anyone should be able to see that "nothing is forever", and that some day the cycle will be in the reverse trend.
The real trick is if Mish predicts how long his "predicted deflationary trend" lasts.
Without that info, he's just trying to time the market with his gut. And people lose that game all day, every day. Schiff doesn't even play that game. He's not going to give you a month by month road map of what the market will do!!! Anyone who says they can is a liar.
Schiff is big picture, he educates people as to the big picture and he introduces people to some very simple concepts, like: we need to produce something tangible, and we need to own something tangible.
I work with my hands, and provide goods and services. And a respectable part of my stored labor is stored in silver and gold.
Schiff said he started out earlier this decade by buying mining stocks, then realized that it wasn't safe, and then bought actual bullion.
He's informing people as to the big picture. Anyone who professes to know the timing and direction of the minutia and details...they may get it right a few times, but they'll eventually be wrong. That's why Schiff says "long term".
e
OK, the way I judge success
OK, the way I judge success is I look at my performance report and see how much money I've made. What is your return on gold this year? I made 40% return on 10 year treasuries. Which was the better investment? period.
Why does he have to tell you when deflation will end? To make money these days you have to have a Trader mentality because buy and hold is dead. That is why, if you are going to buy equities, you find a manager who can hedge. I happen to be all in cash, and in deflation, cash is good. I am not going to run for the hills yet. What if we go sideways for 10 years like Japan? You judge money managers in hindsight. If hindsight is 20/20, Mish kicked Peter's ass. Deal with it.