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Why are there 30 year cycles?

What is it that makes up the cycles that seem to guide our nation? The 1990’s are economically and socially alike; it was a care free decade, one of economic boom time, and socially free times.

The 1970’s and the 2000’s? Pretty much the same. Trying to squeeze every bit of prosperity, and having the freedom squeezed away from us. They were worrisome decades, one of panics. Getting bogged down in a long war, stuck in the mud or sand as it were.

In fact, tack the 1940’s into that group.

The greatest way to look to see what lies ahead in the decade to come? Check out the 1950’s, or the 1980’s. Yup, the next decade is likely to be boring and materialistic. Unemployment’s going to be high, but corporate profits will be just fine. Government’s going to be our guide into abstinence of the fun we’ve just had (1990-2009) and try to convince the populace that spending a lifetime shunning every carnal desire brings the country closer to undoing the greed, the selfishness, and the sexual promiscuity is what caused the country to slip.

Oh boy is this next decade going to be boring.

Unless, we can cut this one off ahead of time. If we anticipate what they’re up to, and know their move ahead of time, maybe we can stop this cycle of madness.

Expect this economically. A brief recovery, just enough to calm everyone down and get them spending again. They accomplish swings in the cycles of fear with language. Subtle as it may be, just changing the words and focus used by the feds and other officials to sway opinions. I submit that the control over our economy is nothing more than the use of manipulative language, not any other sinister measure…mostly because you don’t need direct control.

The Fed and Treasury wanted to slam the economy into a seizure for many reasons this fall. First, the dollar was on the way up and commodities were beginning to drop. So to force more dollar strength and commodity weakness, they went on TV and talked of a grave situation with the banks (the people who control 90%+ of the currency in this country) were entering a systemic solvency crisis.

Holy shit did we bite. People went into squirrel mode in a large and instant way. Money quit being spent, discretionary purchases were put off until tomorrow. The economy slams to a halt.

The result? China has begun a very serious crash, it won’t be evident for years as it will be swept under the rug, but they’re in serious trouble. Far worse than the US right now.

Another result? The oil exporting countries beginning to crash. They grew addicted to massive money for their oil, and all of the sudden the funding is gone. OPEC has lost its teeth, because no country can afford to cut exports now.

American people, meanwhile…there is some pain being felt. A lot of jobs have been lost, a lot more are going to be still. Budgets are strained; the standard of living has dropped a little. Nothing as bad as what this panic has cost our economic “enemies” China and the Arabs.

So we have crushed our adversaries at a cost of a nasty recession. This might go down as one of the longer recessions we’ve ever felt, but just a little bit of language, and the recession is over.

Ready to see the end of the road for the panic? Does a stress test sound familiar?

A stress test…an imaginary scenario put into the bank’s balance sheet, to determine if they will fail if something bad, worse, and horrible happens.

They get to announce those results in the next week…I’m willing to predict that whatever is discovered is seen as “the banking crisis isn’t as bad as we thought”.

Americans aren’t going to read their findings, digest their stress test results, or even understand exactly what’s happening…but they’ll hear “not as bad as we thought” and relax. Spend a little of the cash they’ve tucked into a corner…buy the house, the car, the trip they’ve been wanting but have been putting off.

It won’t be much, but just a little sustained good news will feed on itself, and slowly the inflation will take over.

The next recession…the dreaded stagflation. A recession coupled with an inflationary period. In steps Paul Volker (remember him, he’s on Obama’s economic team) who pulls the emergency brake on interest rates at just the right moment to kill inflation but not kill the economy.

Recovery…then boom…then bust…repeat until there’s nothing left of this country.

This is what they’re doing…just what they’ve done before. They don’t need a PPT or anyone else buying up stocks. They don’t need to directly manipulate the market. Americans are such a panicky and easily swayed people, it isn’t even necessary.

So unless you want abstinence ads all over TV, a decade of soulless and meaningless pop music, just saying no, and an ever eroding American dream…do nothing and let the country be led to the slaughter.

Change this cycle…be persistent but smart in your recruiting people into this revolution. Sell the movement on the easy points, no taxes, less government, no more wars or troops overseas. Become adept at telling people what they want to hear…once they join the movement they can learn what they need to hear.

Don’t base our revolution around our enemies…base our revolution around a better path for our country.

Don’t call them sheeple and give up. That’s what losers do. It’s not their ability to hear you; it’s your ability to get a clear message across.

You can reach people, but you have to learn to read people first. The income tax works best for older people. To get the young, use the war on drugs. Use peace and a humble foreign policy, to not have America’s children dying halfway around the world unnecessarily.

We have a LOT of demons to chase with this movement. We have to make our message about what unites us all. Americans hate their taxes.

Remember this always, as much as the British did to their colonies…the real source of the revolution was taxation.

End the income tax!

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Disagree. There are cycles

Disagree. There are cycles then their are greater cycles. Yeah history repeats itself, but each time there are always differences and they gradually increase with time. IWO the water can only circle the bowl so many times before it is flushed. We are in a flush cycle this time.

People don't realize things have fundamentally changed and they will most likely be in a survival scenario this year. We have no savings, The People have 16 trillion in personal debt, we have no manufacturing, Most people have no clue how to live off the land, grow a garden etc. These are all things that are opposite the 1930s

The government continues to increase the pace of it's fallacy of economics pumping more money and credit into the economy to try and save it when that very thing is what caused the problem. Frankly your optimism is getting ridiculous to the point of denial.

Being positive is fine but denying reality is not helpful!

This isn't just going to be some 1950s time period. The moral force government is preaching these days is not about sex its about having guns and obeying government. It has turned quite sinister compared to the 50's

And 1990 - 2009 is only 19 years not 3, what up with that?

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First ...

Excellent piece …

We need more of this.

Second …

I disagree on a number of points.

1. These are not 30 year cycles. But they are predictable based on policy, not time.
2. Volker will resign and have nothing to do with policy during this administration.
3. This one seems to be quite different because of two reasons …
a. We are now a debtor nation.
b. This is a global economy. And because of this there is a risk of a paradigm shift or worse, a world war where we are part of the losing side.
4. There is not going to be another spending spree on this continent for quite along time, at least not by consumers, Unless there is massive inflation and people are able to pay off their debt quickly.
5. This is not a game any longer and it cannot be controlled.
6. The financial crisis was not made up. I think that is what you were trying to say.
7. The only way to work our way out of this is to export consumerism not debt.

Having said all that …

The last part about what we need to do to sell freedom to as many people as possible is quite brilliant. I hope people read this and realize it has merit.


Here's the problem though

Here's the problem though and I can speak to this because I work with a lot of people between the ages of 18-25. These kids have no idea about how anything works and were raised during a period where the booming economy was the norm and they got what they wanted when they wanted it. The TV reinforces all these ideas as well. I see that they continue to buy buy buy and are total idiots. It's a challenge to talk to them because if I use too big of a word they just give me that puppy dog look. So there is no way they can understand anything about the way the world really works because it involves complex thinking to be able to actually process it.

I absolutely see a spending spree coming as the parents of these idiots who themselves are not necessarily idiots but have spent so much of their adult lives in the same boom cycle have been indoctrinated into this credit society. People had to take a shock to the system to reign in their spending for a little while but combine tax returns with the "positive" language coming out of the fed and congress now that the world has been saved by the stimulus there will be an uptick in consumer spending and for awhile the fears will be erased. I think jzneff is dead on with that part.

Then when people start to over-extend themselves again BAM they throw on the breaks and crash it back down again, in my opinion that will be this fall heading into a very long and tragic winter.

I would give an educated guess that ...

about 25 - 30% of the population do not earn enough to unwind what they have wound .... ever. Unless there is massive inflation.

And another 15 - 20% will be able to, but it will take decades, not years.

These kids will no longer be getting credit cards because they will not be available to them.

Yes, the youngsters are not in deep debt, but they will only be able to spend what they earn.

Make no mistake about it ... This lower tier is the backbone of our consumer society.

Paris Hilton can spend all she wants ... its not going to make a difference. There are not enough Paris Hiltons to make a difference.


Well what I am saying is

Well what I am saying is that joe young adult has no concept of saving or living within his/her means. Of course they aren't going to have the capacity to spend enough to make a difference, but that's not the point I am trying to make. The point being that people are going to see this time between tax returns and whenever it changes back as a time of calmness and will see things going back to normal. Plus they think Jesus himself is the president now. They are going to spend themselves blindly to the point when they, in my opinion, turn violent once it all gets taken away from them. That is what I mean when I say that I think this winter has the potential to be tragic.

And what I am saying is ...

They can't spend what they don't have and what alot of them will ever have again.

I don't think you are grasping the situation many people are in.

They can't just cut spending for a time and be able to go back to spending.

They don't have and probably never will have anything more to spend.

Most of these people only had something to spend because they pulled it out of their mortgage.


I'm not talking about people

I'm not talking about people that are losing their homes and lives. The people actually going through really hard times are going to be scared for life just like people that went through the great depression. I consider myself lucky enough to have been raised by my grandparents who were born around 1910 and lived during the depression.

I am specifically talking about college age kids that have no idea what is really going on in the world who have brought up in a world where all their ideas and thoughts come from the TV, movies, and video games. These people did not have to cut back too much if at all during the last year. They bought useless crap and got drunk and high instead of learning or preparing because they have no idea that they need to be paying attention. They will continue to spend money until the system comes to a halt.

Now on another note that I brought up, you live in S. Ohio so you will be able to understand this. I recently moved north of Columbus but I spent the last 3 years living in or around Oxford AKA Miami University. A bunch of rich kids that have their whole lives paid for. I talked to these kids on daily basis and even their parents were on spending sprees not caring about the future. I see these same people running it out until the end and I think on the point about people being easily manipulated into spending or panicking jzneff is right. Hell it goes for 95% of the people on this board as well. We are all manipulated by outside forces. These kids and their parents do not know hard times, they do not know the busts. They know boom and only boom...they know spend spend spend and they will continue to do just that until they are forced into saving. You are right though that some of these specific people only have because they were using their house as an ATM and will find themselves at the end of the rope soon.

It's great that I was agreeing with what you had to say and was adding something to it and you turn this into an argument. Great job buddy

I still don't think you get it ...

Spending is over on a macro scale ...

The slides are getting bigger every month ...

any blip will be a decrease in the decrease ...

not an increase.


thats the whole point you

thats the whole point you jackoff. The surge in spending won't last and it will end up pushing people further into debt. Fuck man I don't know why anybody even bothers talking to you. Do you think I'm saying that OMG THINGS ARE FIXED AND GOING TO BE OK!!! YAYAYAYAY. No I am saying that I agree with jzneff saying that public sentiment is going to be messed with and people are going to be tricked into thinking it's going to be ok again and those that have a little money that they put back are going to spend some of it on frivolous stuff instead of saving it or putting it to good use. Meanwhile people will continue to lose everything while those who still have something will spend away more of their wealth and end up in the gutter.

It's like talking to a semi intelligent 5 year old with you. Unless someone says exactly what you are thinking you act like they don't understand what awesome and super intelligent point you are making, meanwhile you totally miss what they are saying because like that 5 year old you have this idea in your head and if you let it go it might disappear forever.

And the reason I point to

And the reason I point to 18-25 year olds is because
1) I work with people this age every single day so I get to talk to them and hear their perspectives.
2) They are the future and they don't know shit about anything

and that's a problem

Cycles are really interesting.

I went to listen to trend predictor in education quite a few years ago. I was expecting a pretty boring talk about education. Instead, it was not only interesting, but scary. He backed up everything he said with data. He went over population predictions around the world. The middle east is growing in population and will become a powerhouse. Europe is not reproducing at anywhere near the same rate. He went over the implications of that. Not good.

He showed the cycle of peace and war. The social changes and characteristics of the groups is amazing. He came right out and said that MY children are classified in a "War Group". If history repeats itself, they will be in a war. Not a small war, but a large war.

His advice was to learn one of the main languages in China and prepare for globalization.

Currencies go through cycles. Even the Earth goes through cycles. You can go back and look at the data. It keeps repeating itself.

I have to wonder if

greed plays more of a role here than the cycle of economics, or economic history repeating itself. When I think about outsourcing - GREED, when I think about the SEC - GREED, when I think about Big Banks - GREED, When i think about the oil/auto/energy/gas operative - GREED, when i think about health care/pharmaceuticals - GREED, when I think about the housing sector - GREED. ALL of these areas have tried to get make more money by outsourcing, charging more for prescriptions, charging more for housing (and crap quality at that), charging more for oil, not making vehicles that will run on biodiesel because they've sold out to OPEC and petrol. For the last 20 years, gone are the days where quality, efficient and sustainable products to benefit the consumer...and in came what was best for the CEO/board. These companies don't care about their employees or they would have done everything the opposite. When you produce with the consumer in mind you don't fail, when you produce with the producer in mind you always lose. I think our nation became selfish, greedy, immoral, and it all reflected back on the consumer. The only way to turn it around on the business side, is to put the consumer on a pedestal again.

+...Pray for Your Enemies and Moral Courage for Righteous Leaders, so that Justice Will Be Delivered to the Innocent...+

+...Pray for Your Enemies and Moral Courage for Righteous Leaders, so that Justice Will Be Delivered to the Innocent...+

Greed is a constant

Greed is around us always. Greed is what drives the motor of the world. Greed knows no cycles.

The cycles are caused by demographics, by monetary policy, by psychology. Good times lead to malinvestment, which is fed by a short sighted view of things and easy money policies.

I mentioned demographics, the baby boom is a big part of this cycle. In the 1960's, a whole generation entered their teen years...where they would work for low wages and spend the money freely.

They grew up through the 70's and 80's...had children and had to cut back on their lifestyle. The slow years.

In comes the late 1990's. The baby boomers started peaking in their earning power, began to have children leave, and began to have a large amount of disposable income. Also, their children were now working for low wages and spending what they earned.

Now the baby boomers are retiring, and their children are having children. Both represent a drop in consumption and thus, the consumer driven economy.

Don't assume that we are on a steady path of more greed and more immorality. The path of destruction we are on is caused by laziness and entitlement.

Maybe I didn't explain it better

The quality for everything is crap now from clothes, food, cars, appliances, domestics, furniture, houses, electronics. Things were made cheap so, one could keep buying to replace it, or they didn't want to put the money to develop a quality product. Manufacturing ethics spiraled down and so did the respect for the consumer. At least 20-30 years ago you could buy a car and keep it running by working on it yourself. Now, everything is so complex in being put together, very few dare to work on their cars if they're brand new. So in my opinion it is greed, or lack of business ethics or both. I purposefully am not going out of my way anymore to buy lots of crap quality things (because it's cheaper) instead, I buy one thing of quality because I know it's going to last. There is a significantly diminished attitude in manufacturing and producing today, it's more about quantity than quality, and I think this lack of respect for the consumer is having an impact on what's going on in society right now. Greed is a motivator for those that demean the consumer, because the emphasis is how it's going to benefit the producer, not the consumer.

+...Pray for Your Enemies and Moral Courage for Righteous Leaders, so that Justice Will Be Delivered to the Innocent...+

+...Pray for Your Enemies and Moral Courage for Righteous Leaders, so that Justice Will Be Delivered to the Innocent...+

jzneff, you take a lot of

jzneff, you take a lot of sh*t around here but you do seem to get things right even if it seems to be for the wrong reasons, like the oil thread. You are going to be right about the near term as well I suspect but where exactly does that leave us as a nation?

Do people start hoarding money so that they may live off of it when the real crisis comes? Do people save a little but spend almost everything they can on staples and durable goods? I am completely on board with the ideas of getting more people on board. It's what I do every single day at work. I show people that freedom is a hell of a lot better than being afraid and living irrationally through a controlled thought process.

In your opinion what should someone who has little to no debt who works in a pretty stable industry but doesn't make a whole lot of money do in the near term?

Where does that leave us?

It leaves us free to go ahead and forget the lessons we've learned as a people. Boom times make us forget the bust. Do you think anyone in 1998 believed that the good times would ever end? I think it's our job to remind people that we're only reaping what we've sowed.

Is your approach at work drawing people in? If your methods work, by all means do what works for you.

What should you do? What are you asking me? How do you make an impact on our movement or how do you make yourself wealthy?

What I am asking isn't

What I am asking isn't exactly how to become wealthy, because at least in terms of money that really doesn't do it for me. If by wealth you mean living comfortably within my means then yes that is what I mean. I have been taking the opportunity over the last year or so as things fall apart to buy up equipment and durable goods. I have not saved a whole lot but I have enough back to cover anything out of the blue. So my question is should I continue to buy up items and things that I will need and may not be able to afford or even find in the future or is it time to start drawing it in and raising my savings rate. Again, I am not looking to be rich or anything like that...it's just not my nature, I am just looking to live my life and be as comfortable at possible.

You say that the people are going to be tricked into spending again, well that's actually what I did when everyone was tightening up. So is it prudent to begin saving, even though I think the dollar is ultimately doomed, while everyone is out spending again? Last question is just how long do you think they will pacify the people into thinking things are ok before they start turning the screws again?