Why the Dollar will NOT crash as most of you believe

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The following is a copy of an email I sent to a friend who believes like many here that the dollar is going to implode.
Please poke holes in my argument!!

As far as currency collapses.....yes they can happen with rapidity and come "out of nowhere", I agree with BCA (Bank Credit Analyst) that over the next year or 2 there will not be a replacement of the Dollar standard,but, in about 2 years we will have hard data on what the Fed will do with all this new money they have created. What I mean is they can start to reverse the increase in the money supply by selling treasuries (this will drive interest rates up and up) as opposed to what they are currently doing which is buying treasuries (driving down rates)...i.e. monetizing the debt of the US govt or better known as "printing money" So.....give me 2 years and I will feel better for a long term prediction on the US dollar as a store of value. Remember the Fed's overriding goal is to remain the monopoly supplier of currency and they know better than you and I how to make that happen. Meaning.....if they need to jack up interest rates to 15% or more they will to preserve the dollar. My view is simply that the current "printing" they are engaged in is to prevent a monetary revolution due to a banking collapse. They are trying to manage this collapse over a period of years and thus protect the status quo....meaning dollar hegemony.The US has plenty of depth to its marketplace and this is the true backing of the currency and I believe the Fed understands this more than anyone. The US economy is the goose that lays the golden eggs! Obama will soon learn this. Looters need a host.....the Fed enables the looters (congress) and thus will do their damndest to keep the "goose laying its golden eggs"

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It's who you pay attention to.

Like our friendly host Michael Nystrom, I'm a committed follower and fan of ElliottWave.com. Thanks to them, since late September I've made over 20% on our investments. Anybody know of a better return during that time period?

Yes, the dollar is actually appreciating because, despite the
Fed's rampant inflation, "virtual money" from years of credit expansion and make-believe derivatives, etc., so much virtual money has evaporated from the system that the Fed's inflation can't keep up with it. The dollar will continue to appreciate (apart from intermediate corrections as are currently active) for some time yet, and I'm taking advantage of that with 2x leverage in my Rydex fund.

It's also time to take advantage of an upward correction in the stock market. For the next couple of months or so (better check with elliottwave.com) you can pretty securely invest in the stock indices and make some money ... before the next leg (the big 3rd wave decline) takes the market into the tank. And they'll tell you when that turn is likely to take place, and you can switch to bear market funds and make a bundle.

Tune in, guys. This economy isn't necessarily a disaster for everyone. If you know how to manage things, you can do better now with your investments than you've ever done before.

15% Interest Rates?

That is more than the total revenue from income tax with today's national debt. With the debt due to double in the next 5 years there will not be enough revenue to pay the interest if the rate were half that. Get ready for much higher taxes.

You assume

the Fed is on a local(American) level. They are frying big fish.

My hunch is this: They could care less what you call the currency. They want as many countries as possible depending on a similar currency. They may call it dollar,or pixi stix, it doesn't matter.

Since most countries have some major interests tide to the dollar, the best currency to construct failure would be the dollar. "If you want a train to drive over a cliff, make the engine(dollar) go faster towards the edge, thus pulling all the cars over with it" Then offer a more attractive, life saving currency that includes a wider group of slaves.

It's about expanding the power to create and control the creation of money over as many people as possible. It's been going on since the invention of banking.

You got it

The "dollar" may stick around in America for namesake only but it's finished as a separate currency.
Whether the "elites" decide to give the new world currency it's own name is anybody's guess.

"Tobacco will get you through times of no money better than money will get you through times of no tobacco"

"It's just one big club... and WE ain't in it!"

"Tyrants fear nothing more than insubordination"

"It's just one big club... and WE ain't in it!"

Fiat currencies always crash

because the people in power always tend to get a little bit too greedy. I think the passage of the budget today has insured the crash of the dollar. How can the Fed decrease the money supply when Congress has basically just demanded they keep the presses rolling. Oh yea but all this spending is going to turn our economy around. All we have to do is build new infrastructure, a new power grid, and invest in green innovation and we are going to have high paying jobs building solar panels and wind turbines or at least that is what Obama is telling us. You should try reading Confessions of an Economic Hit Man. That was the same line the US used to debt enslave many a third world nation and now they are using in to enslave the American people. Its not just that they are destroying the dollar but they have been systematically destroying our economic base by forcing production out of our country. Why stick to looting one country when the people in power want to loot the world? Jeffrey Garten has written some interesting stuff on what he calls "state capitalism' where governments use their economic strength to buy strategic assets or exert global influence. The Chinese government is not just buying up our bonds, they are buying stocks in all of our companies and its not just the Chinese government. Government-owned investment companies, often called sovereign wealth funds, have been created in Saudi Arabia, Russia, Kuwait, Singapore and China, with Japan and South Korea working on creating them. Hmm makes you wonder why Obama is using all the bailouts to gain stock in companies, is even forcing banks that are not failing to sell the government stocks, and wants the Treasury to have the power to audit any company that poses a risk to the economy and take it over. Obama also wants to give the treasury the power to impose control over what employees can make at a company but says that he will only target the ones who make too much but will not say what too much is.Thats a pretty good trick. Get the stock of a company, limit what the workers can make and the profits go to the stock holder governments. I think the people in power have gone past just the idea of gaining power and wealth by controlling currency. Now they are making the move to take every thing over and in the end it will not really matter what currency we trade in.

I'm not sure what you're talking about.

Define "crash".

What the dollar is going to do is explode and disintegrate in value.

Inflation is caused by the Fed printing paper money. It's that simple. That's all you need to know.

The Fed is currently printing money at a runaway speed, never before seen in history, to help demonitize the massive debt being accumulated (also unprecedented in history).

As soon as the depression cycle (from a bubble burst of credit and banking) ends, we will experience dramatic hyperinflation.

A tidal wave of fiat money is going to produce a tidal wave of inflation.

SUPPORT OUR FOUNDERS' AMERICA
Support the Constitution of the United States

SUPPORT OUR FOUNDERS' AMERICA
Support the Constitution of the United States

No. They Don't Care About The Dollar.

They care about profit and power. The dollar is finished.

____________________________________________
"Make the lie big, make it simple, keep saying it, and eventually they will believe it." -- Joseph Goebbels

_____________________________
"Make the lie big, make it simple, keep saying it, and eventually they will believe it." -- Joseph Goebbels

Remember, there are two very

Remember, there are two very different forces at work, one in the FOREX or foreign exchange, which appears to be what you are talking about and the other, much more important, is the actual purchase value of the currency itself as an exchange unit within the economy itself. I care little about the FOREX, whether the Dollar "collapses" against other currencies or not, except as a profit generator, but I do care very much about the quality of the currency in terms of purchase value since that is what the American People must content with in their daily lives. The danger is the actions of the FED in expanding the money base, particularly at such a rapid and enormous rate. Such actions, along with the apparent quantitative easing that the FED appears the be heading, poses an incredible threat that this country has never really faced before.

It should be of particular note when considering the shell game that has been occurring over the last year. If you will recall several months ago the FED actually went to the Treasury for a relatively small "loan", just a few hundred billion and yet recently the Treasury has been "borrowing" from the FED. Does anyone see something odd in that scenario?

Of course, to ignore just what took place on August 15, 1971 is to ignore the foundation of the current economic dislocation and without having an understanding of the mechanics of converting the US Dollar into a completely irredeemable paper currency "substitute" there is no possible way to fully understand just what is occurring during this dislocation. The amount of distortion that was forced, not only on the entire economy of the US, but the entire world, is well beyond the grasp of most people and apparently it is relatively ignored by most in the economic and financial realms, but it is one of the most important points of understanding in breaking down just what happened in the Panic of 2008 and what is about to happen due to the distortions. The experiment began in 1971, but it has been a failed experiment with the most dire consequences imaginable, yet few appear to either understand or even consider just what happens to an economy which has been subjected to such a degree of massive distortion. The struggle of the financial system during this dislocation is only a signifier of far more disruptive events, it is after all the first layer of the political economy that was created during the transformation of 1971.

While it is true that the FED has held the position of monetary monopoly, the FED cannot, particularly in the state of economic dislocation currently taking place or even if the US Dollar was on the verge of collapse, increase interest rates, as the author says, to high levels, to do so would be suicide, not only in the political arena, but also economically. Besides that, this economy has over the years lost its tolerance of such increases. It no longer retains its free-market flexibility to maintain interest rate increases without going into massive convulsions. If you look at the years since 1971 you will readily be able to discern that growing intolerance for rate increases. Such intolerance signifies that the economy has become restrictive, bound and completely inflexible. The FED has already used just about every single weapon in its arsenal, it has little maneuvering ability at this point and, as I said well over a year ago, that when the FED lowers the rate close to the Zero Bound you know that the end is near. Well, that is exactly what has happened.

Look closely at what the FED has done, do you recognize any patterns that could be considered either consistent or even rational economically? I see patterns that are well-worn without any innovation whatsoever in terms of economic principles. In fact, it appears that they are playing the same game and dancing to the same tune they have always danced to. Why? Because they have nothing else they can do, they are so completely bound by a particular economic ideology that they can not see past their proverbial collective noses! They are lost, the blind leading the blind. So, like they always do, they target monetary policy, that is all they can do, all they have to work with and as usual, they are once again using that good old stand-by Inflation thinking that will solve the problems when the problems have been brought about by years of government intervention and economic distortions created through the very same monetary policies that the FED is using and promoting as yet another solution. It will not work, in fact it will only serve to create even more distortions which will produce even more convulsions that will increasingly become much more disruptive.

So, the FED has embarked on yet another attempt to re-inflate a busting bubble and in the process it is using the same techniques it has used time and time again, but on a much larger and much more dangerous scale. It is effectively attempting to bail-out a completely insolvent, illiquid banking system and it is doing this to maintain a type of structure that simply cannot be sustained through artificial means.

If you really want to understand the quality and therefore the condition of the US Dollar all you have to do is look at the FED Balance Sheet. While it appears that everyone is running for "safety" to the US Dollar instruments at the moment, the fact is that the quality of the US Dollar is drastically weakening and affecting the FED's Balance Sheet in ways that have not been seen prior to this disruption. Look at the "Assets" the FED holds, there has been an incredible degree of deterioration over the last few months in those "Assets" and since those "Assets" essentially back the liability column in the FED Balance Sheet, which primarily consist of the monetary base of this country, what do you think about the condition of such backing? Well, it is important to understand that the quality of those "Assets" is essentially what the FED uses to "defend" or "support" the value of the US Dollar on both the domestic and foreign markets.

Personally, I place no faith in either the FED, this government or the US Dollar because I can see that this economic dislocation is far, very far, from over folks.

http://www.1776solution.blogspot.com

“There is danger from all men. The only maxim of a free government ought to be to trust no man living with power to endanger the public liberty.”-Adams

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currency swaps

In addition to expanding the monetary base, please learn about currency swaps the Fed is doing with other central banks. These swaps could drag us down if other countries have severe currency dislocations. If/when this may happen appears to be impossible to predict and would occur rapidly (in 12-36 hours like Iceland 2008).

yep, its just starting... in

yep, its just starting... in order to have a one world government the dollar has to be replaced.

"When governments fear the people there is liberty. When the people fear the government there is tyranny."
-Thomas Jefferson

I am more concerned about the return of my money than the return on my money. --Mark Twain

“A prudent man foreseeth the evil, and hideth himself: but the simple pass on, and are punished.” (Prov. 22:3; 27:12 KJV)

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Why does it need to be REPLACED???

Why wouldn't the dollar just BE the world currency?

In Christ,
Dave

"where the Spirit of the LORD is, there is liberty." 2 Cor. 3:17

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In The LORD Jesus Christ;
Dave

"where the Spirit of the LORD is, there is liberty." 2 Cor. 3:17

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First, a fiat currency is

First, a fiat currency is only as good as what it will buy and there are two very important components to that "value", one is the limitation of supply and the other is pure unadulterated "faith" in both the currency and the government that issues it.
I see no world government and while there are those who may try to impose such a government, for the most part those who govern cannot govern their own individual countries. There is simply too much diversity within the populations and ideologies of the world to allow such a governing body, even the little EU is fragmented and splintered. Besides, the world already has a "one world currency" it is called FIAT and the entire world was placed on that single monetary system after 1971, by force. The Dollar is relatively meaningless in terms of a barrier, it, along with the rest of the Fiat currencies of the world, a failed experiment that will ultimately bring down the elite when it completely collapses. Don't cry for the Federal Reserve Notes, welcome its death and the death of the order that was imposed on the peoples of the world.

http://www.1776solution.blogspot.com

“There is danger from all men. The only maxim of a free government ought to be to trust no man living with power to endanger the public liberty.”-Adams

http://militantjeffersonian.com

"Men do not willingly read unpalatable truths of themselves. The People like those best who fool them most, by pandering to their vices and flattering their foibles" Raphael Semmes

Sounds pretty trivial really

Better to spend your time learning how to shoot a gun and work in groups.

Either that or learning how to beg people who have guns for food if you're a pacifist.

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Jekyll Island

As history shows, fiat currancies fail.

by M.A. Nystrom (1980 Gold Crash)

http://www.safehaven.com/article-4244.htm

[Snippet]

It was a slap in the face to a cold war America already weakened by high inflation and unemployment, a struggling economy, and high energy prices. The future of the American economy and American power did not feel at all certain. As a safe haven in times of panic and strife, gold simply reflected that fear. But notice how quickly the buying panic subsided and in fact turned into a selling panic after the emotion had been digested and rationality returned. The all-time peak was immediately followed by two consecutive limit-down days. When emotion subsided, it took the price of gold along with it. This marked the beginning of a 22 year bear market in gold.

You call that a crash?

The author failed to mention that the price of Gold rose from $35.00 per ounce in 1971 to $850.00 in 1980, but stable-ized between $400 and $500 all through the 80's.
A rise from $35.00 to $400.00 doesn't seem like a crash to me.

beesting

If you bought it at 900 then/like now

See if you don't call it a crash like Nystrom infers.

Yes.

If I bought Gold at $900 now and it went down to $500 and stayed there for a few years, it would be a crash, but I don't see that happening. They've just injected trillions of new dollars into the economy, which almost guarantees a rise in the Gold price.

The real crash noone mentions is the DOW 14,000 and then down to under 9,000 and lower, that's what these bubble heads are worried about because trillions in pensions are invested in stocks, while I set merrily on my Gold stash and work out trades.

My dentist wants to trade my coins for dental work.....Smart Guy!

beesting

Wait until interest rates go up because what you say

And the gold traders dump gold for bonds. We will see who is the smart guy then. BTDT (1980)

I seen and all it takes is for George Soros to sell gold and the stock market will turn on a dime (1980's).

Good Answer...Smile.

But please check out current interest rates in Zambabwe,,,,,nothing works except Gold, when hyper-inflation sets in.

beesting

Are you really trying to compare America to Zimbabwe ?

Interest Rates are measured in political stability, economic fundamentals and the prospects for sustainable economic recovery.

Employment in Zimbabwe is 6 %, and inflation 231 million per cent. America is over 90 % employed, and the range for the annual rate of inflation in 2009 is between 1.5% and 2.5%. Big difference.

As our Michael A. Nystrom *said, December 10, 2005, [Snip] - [Quote] "Many of you may be trading gold today. With the benefit of hindsight, it is easy to see where to buy and sell. But if you were trading gold in '79-80, do you think that you would have been able to ride it to the top, without getting spooked out? Once at the top, would you have the courage to sell? Undoubtedly there were people at the time calling for much higher levels: "The economy is going to hell! Gold is going to $2,000 and beyond! You'd be a fool to sell." Times may change, but human nature does not." [Un-Quote]

beesting BOHICA (pun-intended) SMILE

* http://www.safehaven.com/article-4244.htm

1980 Gold.

Mr. Nystroms chart doesn't agree with the Kitco chart which has Jan. 1980 as the top:

http://www.kitco.com/scripts/hist_charts/yearly_graphs.plx

But I vividly remember the time { not the month } because I did cash out of my South African Gold stocks at the top and made a handsome profit.The difference between then and now for me was, at that time I was not as worried about the dollar crashing,,,,,as I am now!
My Gold objectives have changed since that time, since I have now bought Gold as insurance against dollar inflation, and luckily since 1996 guessed quite correctly.
When Gold was low I was accumulating.

BOHICA----Wakada-nai. Eigo kuda-sai.

beesting

More than one way to skin the inflation cat

U.S. Treasury's, unless you plan on carrying a bag of gold around to buy things after fiat dies [sic].

To Mr. Richard.

I just now received this e-mail, the "Spot" price of Gold and the natural "Law" of supply and demand for Gold coins is separating, scroll to the bottom of the article:

{snip}Salt Lake Tribune
Posted:04/03/2009 04:25:03 PM MDT
http://www.sltrib.com/business/ci_12066142
There is a gold and silver rush of sorts going on in Utah these days.

Worries over the future of the nation's economy and the looming possibility the federal government's trillion-dollar deficits may ignite inflation has many Utahns fleeing to the perceived safety of gold and silver.

The result is a shortage of some of the more popular bullion coins throughout the state.

"Where we have really seen a shortage is in the 'fractional' coins -- the American Gold Eagle, Canadian Maple Leaf and South African Krugerrand coins that contain a tenth, a quarter and half-ounce of gold," said Bob Campbell, owner of All About Coins in Sugar House.

A year ago, Utah coin dealers could hardly give away such coins, said Campbell, a former president of the American Numismatic Association. "Now they are in high demand and we can't seem to get enough."

The shortage, however, isn't just in Utah.

"It is a nationwide shortage," said Peter Grant, senior market analyst at USAGOLD-Centennial Precious Metals Inc. in Denver. "We're seeing a huge unprecedented demand for gold as a safe haven asset."

Gold and silver (known as the "poor man's gold" because of its much cheaper price) are widely viewed as offering a hedge against inflation and a store of value in uncertain economic times.

Gaylen Rust, owner of Rust Rare Coin in downtown Salt Lake City, said he is seeing an increasing number of retirees and those nearing retirement who are quietly purchasing silver and gold coins as insurance against what they fear will be an eventual fall in the value of the dollar.

"A lot of them are approaching their (gold and silver coin) purchases almost like a life or fire insurance policy," Rust said. "It is something they want to have, but pray that they never have to use."

While the shortage of gold and silver bullion coins may be nationwide, Utahns seem enamored with the metals.

Campbell said a year ago only about 30 percent of his business was bullion coin sales with 70 percent centered around the sale of rare coins to collectors. Since last fall, though, those percentages have reversed.

"The shortage does seem to be a little more prominent here in conservative Utah," Campbell said. "I know when we do manage to find a supply of coins, a lot of times they come from the more liberal eastern states."

steve@sltrib.com

What gold and silver bullion coins cost -- Friday's prices

One ounce American Gold Eagle -- $984

One ounce Krugerrand -- $962

One ounce Canadian Maple Leaf -- $962

One ounce American Silver Eagle -- $17.80

Source: All About Coins, Sugar House

beesting

In the 80's..,

the demand was so high, my dealer was paying $20 over spot to sellers. I hope you are not insinuating that high demands indicates it is a good buy ? Remember, this is just another way to fleece newcomers.

Buy low, sell high; who are those other guys kidding ?

the conditions for the gold

the conditions for the gold market in 79 and 80 are like night and day comapered to 2009;;

"When governments fear the people there is liberty. When the people fear the government there is tyranny."
-Thomas Jefferson

I am more concerned about the return of my money than the return on my money. --Mark Twain ..

“A prudent man foreseeth the evil, and hideth himself: but the simple pass on, and are punished.” (Prov. 22:3; 27:12 KJV)

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"IT IS DIFFERENT THIS TIME!"

BTW, how high is gold going ? 2000 and beyond again ?

Well said, keep telling yourself that. (SMILE)

[Quote - M.A. Nystrom] "Times may change, but human nature does not." [Un-Quote]

Yes, sheeople in this country thought that the real estate

bubble would never burst. And the stock market bubble ( remember 14,000 highs). Now you tell me the dollar bubble will not burst.
Get a grip , Dude it will happen.

If

the NWO wasn't dying to have a world currency and then an electronic currency, I would agree. Since they have spread all this money around and since much of the world accepts the dollar, why don't they just make the dollar the world currency? Why did they give all their buddies in the corporations all this money if they intend to just take it away from them? Not trying to make a single point-just doin' some wonderin'.

I am not smart enough to know what will happen

Thats why I listen to Dr. Paul, Peter Schiff, Gerald Celente and Marc Faber. They all called it and continue to call it. The only thing they cannot predict is how far the Fed will go to try and fix the problem which we all know drags it out further.