Comment: Intrade

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Intrade

I also agree that we have to go unconventional, but as an active trader in Intrade, I have to warn against trying to manipulate the market to make a candidate look like he has a chance. With one unsuccessful exception (google John McCain Intrade) the markets are very hard to manipulate and any effort to bid up a candidate will only last a day or two unless very large sums of money are involved. Without going into too much detail, there are mechanisms in place where if one candidate is overpriced the other traders can short the rest of the field and make a small profit (1-20 cents) on every ten dollar share of Ron Paul that is too high.
One interesting idea however, if you are unable to max your donation, currently you can spend twenty to twenty five cents to win ten dollars Paul to win the Rep. nomination. So if you wanted to donate $2500 when he wins the nomination, you can make a $50 investment today to have the money when he wins.
One last note, based on the discrepancy between the price for Paul to win the Rep. Nomination and the Presidency, the markets are saying if Paul is to become president it is slightly more likely(~54%) that he would do it as a third party than as a Republican.
Feel free to send me a note if you want to know the math behind this or anything else about Intrade.
SM