Comment: fivethirtyeight.com prediction for Romney win back down to 40%

(See in situ)


fivethirtyeight.com prediction for Romney win back down to 40%

It was as high as 60% over the weekend. The addition of 3 new January polls kicked it back down to Romney 40% chance of winning, Dr. Paul, 36%.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/fivethirtyeight/primaries/...

The Santorum surge appears to be real. Bachmann tanking big time, Gingrich in 4th place.

My question is, how much of the Santorum surge support will be translatable to a caucus-type of primary. When they do polls, people like to get in on the momentum, but I doubt that Santorum has so many supporters with chops ready to make speeches for him at the caucuses.

Given the ferocity of the attacks on Dr. Paul over the last week, it seems his poll nos are holding up remarkably well.