Ron Paul folk will never abandon the good doctor. But fence sitters usually vote for whoever is buzzing at the 11th hour.
Personally Santorum is a very unatractive candidate. But Iowans and SC folk love an evangelical with momentum.
Don't get me wrong. I expect Dr. Paul to win Iowa based on his neck and neck poll numbers, which are only Registered Republicans and doesn't count disaffected democrats, Indys, or first time voters. So if it's neck and neck with just GOP voters hes as close to a lock as you can get.
BUT fence sitters are about vanity
Those willing to trade their freedom for temporary security deserve neither and will lose both.