Comment: Maybe the campaign

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In reply to comment: I'm thinking he won in ... (see in situ)

Maybe the campaign

Maybe the campaign overestimated their own support. I could see the GOP slipping Paul below Gingrich, but I think it would be way too difficult to drop him all the way below Romney without getting caught. Is there evidence turnout was higher than it was? It was way down in Florida as well. The late night caucus is not enough to determine whether it is representative of the rest of the state. It's very possible (and in fact, I believe I saw a couple posts from people confirming this) that the campaign emphasized winning this particular caucus. Also, I checked a few of the results for precincts posted on the DP with Google's totals and in each case they matched. Ultimately, I don't think Nevada is significant enough to go through such extraordinary lengths to make the winning candidate a distant third. Romney won in 08 and McCain still rolled to victory. The media would just dismiss it as a small state caucus victory and move on.

Furthermore, let's put the shoe on the other foot. Assume Romney and Paul's situations in Nevada were reversed. Let's say Paul won Nevada in 08 with 50% of the vote while Romney got 13%. Let's assume all the polls leading up to the caucus showed Paul with a huge lead and Romney in third. Everyone on this site would be screaming vote fraud if Romney won. And you know that's true.