Comment: in general for discussion

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in general for discussion

in general for discussion about my GOP Unbound forecast:

I will lay out the calculation on my website more precisely end of week. As noted on my page, I don't count 'Hello, I'm a delegate' messages. It is simply impossible to determine the delegates by name, location and bias. My approach is a STATISTICAL one:

That the Twitter bias will reflect the overall delegates bias ! And first ballot, also stated on my website, is clearly NOT my topic. I'm talking about a BROKERED convention with NO majority on first ballot ! Whom the pledged delegates belong to, you can get that from every MSM delegate count. That's why they count RP with 60.

BUT: Ron Pauls delegate strategy builds on stealth delegates and caucus takeovers. The nature of this is: NO ONE SHALL & WILL KNOW who's secretly a Paul biased delegate... until AFTER SECOND ballot. Coz' on second ballot (for some few states later) they can come out.

Now my strategy is to expose how many delegates should be on the Paul ticket, openly AND secretly! And because for stealth reasons there will also be PLEDGED Romney or Santorum delegates who'll come out as Paulsters after first ballot brought no decision.

As with every forecast, it FIRST always is: Speculation, of course! My argument is the pure mass of data available. It is from tens of thousands of INDEPENDENT posters. They don't collaborate, they just speak. And among that overwhelming entropy there is a fascinating order, a structure. So stable and so meaningful, that I truly believe, it can point to the actual delegate bias.

Beside: As you notice, these forecasts are very well ALIVE. They change, and of course delegates moods do not change. So what the Twitter cosmos is really doing is converging to the BIG TRUE number. It is finding its path and that path will be finished on 27Aug, not earlier.

Any further examination of if a tweet is positive or negative or kidding or serious or russian or american or nightly, Sunday, short or long... - all that is not important, cos it will balance out. And even if not today, then tomorrow ! E.g. Gingrich is having some PR today on his latest campaign cut. That obviously brings him some +5% delegates today in my forecast, although I'm smoothing over 7 days. But this is a one time effect and it will be gone soon, probably already tomorrow. I could smooth it even more to get those short effects out but I don't want to have it too much static and out of touch. I'll explain the process on my website later this week.

But as with all forecasts you got to have: confidence ! And I'm assuring you should have that. My numbers will prove to be very realistic.

Hope I could point everything out clear although English's not my first language ;-)

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