If Mitt does not control the delegation of a caucus state (such as Colorado, where he has less than half of the delegates), then maybe that's why it's being called for Ron.
As for Massachusetts, the map may be reflecting the chance of at least half of the MA delegates abstaining on the first vote; we now know there are a lot of Paulers in MA. Again, Mitt would not control the delegation if this is the case.
For every state that gives Mitt less than half of their delegates, RP gets that much closer to a 2nd ballot.
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