# Comment: Assumptions or facts?

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### Assumptions or facts?

Take a look at this summary:

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/R-HS.phtml

It's missing some from Iowa, Colorado, Maine, and Washington.

As it stands, it gives Paul 60 hard or 114 soft, and Romney 811 hard or 954 soft. Let's be extremely generous and grant Paul his soft total and Romney his hard total, that makes 114 Paul, 811 Romney.

Now let's be even more generous and grant Paul ALL of the delegates listed as uncommitted from IA, CO, ME, and WA (28+30+25+43=126), bringing Paul's total to 240.

So that very generous calculation would have Romney with 811 and Paul with 240 as of right now. There are several large winner-take-all primary States remaining. Just TX and CA combined have 327 delegates. Those aren;t actually winner-take-all, because you can win delegates by winning CDs, so let's be generous and assume Paul wins 10% of those delegates. That would take Paul up to (240+33) 273, and Romney up to (811+294) 1105. And then there are still several more States plus superdelegates.

But hey, what's math? Keep calling me a troll.

EDIT: forgot Louisiana and Missouri, add those uncommitted delegates to Paul as well (26 and 28), which brings him to 327. Keep in mind these are not precise figures, if you want to do your own count, all the data is there. But I think the estimate I gave here should be erring in favor of Paul, considering that I gave him all his soft, and Romney only his hard, and gave him all the uncommitted delegates, and 10% of CA and TX - all very generous assumptions. The point, whether the real number is Paul at 327, 307, or 347 is that it's a long long way from 1144. Whereas Romney, whether his real number is 1105 or 1055 or 1155 is very close to 1144.