Comment: What would happen if the U.S. withdrew all its forces globally?

(See in situ)

What would happen if the U.S. withdrew all its forces globally?

Well, clearly Ahmadinejad would nuke Israel while stroking his bald cat and laughing mischievously, after growing a mustache and invading Poland, but before swimming his million-man army across the Indian and Atlantic Ocean to build a mosque in Hartford Connecticut. /sarc


Europe: Nothing much would change. The European nations, whether individually or through the EU, would increase their military spending slightly to maintain the balance of power with Russia.

E. Asia: Japan, S. Korea, and Taiwan (the three nations most dependent on American military support) would dramatically increase their military spending, and develop a balance of power amongst themselves and with China. There's a possibility that China reconquers Taiwan, if Taiwan proves unable or unwilling to pay the heavy price required to defend itself.

Middle East:

Option (A)
A new balance of power will emerge dominated by Turkey, Iran, and Egypt. The influence of Israel and Saudi Arabia will be much-reduced. The Arab-Israeli conflict will end, as the Israelis are forced to recognize the new limitations on their power. The "Arab Spring" may or may not continue, but the three major Muslim States would combine to suppress it if it did. Neither the vision of the Western "nation-builders" nor the vision of the radical Islamists would prevail. The future of the Middle East would belong to basically conservative elements. This would represent a return, after a forty year interval of Western intervention, to the path on which the M.E. was headed in the immediately post-colonial era.

Option (B)
The vacuum of power left in the wake of the American withdrawal will be filled by China and Russia, which will inherit the advantages and costs associated with the job of Middle Eastern policeman.

"Alas! I believe in the virtue of birds. And it only takes a feather for me to die laughing."