Comment: Silver Linings

The only silver linings I see (aside from the noted favorabilities) are that 5% to 11% of Republicans seem to be protesting a switch to Paul. 2% other turns to 7%; 0% not sure turns to 2%, and 15% Obama turns to 19%. Which suggests that the results might otherwise be 48.85% Paul to 45.6% Obama (winning by 3.2%). Also Paul’s very unfavorable among Republicans is 5% compared to Romney’s 11%. Note that 14% of Democrats have a very unfavorable view of Obama, 15% strongly disapprove, 17% vote for Romney, and 18% vote for Paul. We can thus extrapolate that Romney repels 11% of Republicans from the polls (whereas Paul repels only 5%). Romney has 44% total favorable among independents and gets 44% of independents. Paul has 59% total favorable among independents and gets 43%, there is room for 16% growth here. Romney can only lose independents from here on out.

Jim, can you get the ‘vote half the time’ numbers from Pulse? This will demonstrate how turnout will effect outcome; i.e. when Romney is expected to get blown out, who will stay home.