If he can stick to liberty while appeasing the establishment, he will be a genius. Ron Paul never appeased the establishment and only stuck to liberty. If Rand manages to do both, I can definitely see him winning the presidency. Not only will he draw the liberty movement's votes, but also the rank and file's.
It will be a delicate balancing act though.
Santorum, believe it or not, was close to Ron in his voting record. The major difference was his hard core religious lean and the fact that he wanted to send the military everywhere. My point here though is that Rand Paul definitely does not seem to have the religious bent that Santorum does and if he manages to stay away from anymore "Iranian sanctions", he will definitely be a prime candidate in the coming years; not only accessible by the rank and file, but by the liberty movement.