Just because something is improbable doesn't mean it is impossible. Maybe Paul running third party was improbable, but it was not that clearly improbable and certainly wasn't impossible.
A good parallel example would be a sports game. How often do you see teams forfeit just because they're down by a lot at the end of the game? It doesn't matter to them that they probably won't win. They still muster up the energy to give it 110% on the off chance that it just might take them to victory.
There are extremely few, if any, cases of people securing and maintaining true freedom in the history of humanity. That would seem to make the possibility of EVER being free quite improbable. But, so what? Does that mean we should just bend over and take it? No! We fight until we die, and continue fighting, no matter how long it takes, even if we never truly reach our goals.