Comment: Not a false alarm

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Not a false alarm

All signs point to the Long Emergency being true. Oil is consolidating at a high level even with high employment in the major economies. It should break out soon. (I realize that can also be explained by global QE)

Oil is millions of years of condensed solar energy. We burned half of it in a hundred years. This implies that high-tech needs to improve efficiency by at least an order of magnitude to continue our current life styles. It's not going to happen, not even close. Though, Kunster with his doomer talk seemingly doesn't understand the short term robustness of economies with such excess wealth as the U.S.

Check out John Michael Greer. He's as good of writer as JHK, no less pessimistic, and maybe better educated. He writes with much more human decency and grace though. Here's an article explaining, like the body sending resources to the brain and heart in an emergency, wealthy economies will survive in their current configuration for some time by diverting resources from the fringe to the center.

"The economies of the world’s industrial nations are utterly dependent on a steady supply of liquid fuels, and so a steady supply of liquid fuels they will have, even if every other sector of the economy has to be dumped into the hopper in order to keep the fuel flowing. As every other sector of the economy is dumped into that hopper, in turn, the demand for liquid fuels goes down, because when people who used to be employed by the rest of the economy can no longer afford to spend spring break in Mazatlan, or buy goods that have to be shipped halfway around the planet, or put gas in their cars, their share of petroleum consumption goes unclaimed."

And to tie it into RP economics:
"The one exception is the financial sector, since increasing the amount of paper value produced by purely financial transactions involves no additional capital, resources, and labor—a derivative worth ten million dollars costs no more to produce, in terms of real inputs, than one worth ten thousand, or for that matter ten cents. Thus financial transactions increasingly become the only reliable source of profit in an otherwise faltering economy, and the explosive expansion of abstract paper wealth masks the contraction of real wealth."
"Ever more elaborate towers of hallucinatory wealth, ably assisted by reams of doctored government statistics, will project the illusion of a thriving economy onto a society in freefall; the stock market will wobble around its current level for a long time to come, booming and crashing on occasion as bubbles come and go; meanwhile a growing fraction of the population will be forced to drop out of the official economy altogether, and be left to scrape together whatever sort of living they can in some updated equivalent of the Hoovervilles and tarpaper shacks of the 1930s."