My answer is no. God did not lie about his covenant. My point is that most people misunderstand who the promise was made to and what the fulfillment is to look like now. Looking for a political/ethnic Israel and a physical patch of earth in Palestine is NOT what I think God ultimately meant by his covenants.
My point is simply that the Israel of God (Gal. 6:16) has never been an ethnic or political association, not even in Old Testament time. Even if it were, the people who make up the nation of Israel today bear little resemblance to the Israelites of the Old Testament. I know nothing of this study you say, and even if it is true, it doesn't change my premise. My premise is: God's chosen people is not based on ethnic or political origin. It is based on faith in him. I believe I've given sufficient examples already in my other posts to back this up. True Israel today, according to the Christian Bible, is those who have faith in Christ. The promises of the covenants belong to them.
"Be a listener only, keep within yourself, and endeavor to establish with yourself the habit of silence, especially on politics." -Thomas Jefferson