BOJ is expanding its balance sheet, so I don't think liquidity is the problem, I think it's the fact that revenues will be exceeded by servicing the debt which will cause bond yields to rise and further exacerbate the deficit.
A bond market collapse in Japan would give a short term boost to US treasuries as a perceived safe haven.
I could be wrong on all of this, but I think the danger from Japan will hit first in the equities market, which could bring down some firms and institutions. If the fed intervenes to prop them up as yet more "too big to fail" then yes, that could spill over into the bond market here....I mean aren't we right on the edge already with QE4?
your other items all seem plausible to me...
just my two bits
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