Bush senior got beat by Clinton in no small part for being too hard on Israel.
I think Bush junior was just used. He is as easily influenced as he is easily amused. I think he figured it out when he broke with Cheney on the Iran invasion. Probably why he hit the bottle so hard when his 2nd term was up.
Not that I excuse his idiocy, but I think that's probably how it went down.
Want DP delivered to your inbox daily? Subscribe here: