Comment: He may be able to

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In reply to comment: he can't win without us (see in situ)

He may be able to

Look at Iowa.

He can win 60% of the 20% Ron Paul won, because of his liberty message.

He can win 25% of the 24% Santorum won, because many were simply not satisfied with Ron Paul's classical liberalism on social issues, but can swallow Rand's similar but not as radical position.

He can win 33% of the 24% Romney won, because the people who voted for Romney because he was the frontrunner with the message they thought could win.

All together, Rand has a minimum of 26% of the vote in a similar field.

If the horse race is really about 3 ways by then, Christie, Rubio, Paul, then I think the Iowa breakdown would be;

Christie - 20%
Rubio - 24%
Paul - 30%

When you come to NH, it may look like this
Christie - 30%
Rubio - 20%
Paul - 40%

By the time South Carolina chimes in?
Christie - 10%
Rubio - 35%
Paul - 40%

I think Rand Paul will win, unless Jim DeMint runs.