He talks likes he has done some trading before. I've learn a little about trading before and they all say that trading is a science on human reactions to emotions. In your statements you talk about some very reasonable number and concepts about how one may value bitcoins, but in the end, on the trading floor you will be buying (or selling) bitcoins against another human who in the end still has to make payment to many of his debtor in FRNs, that is a fact, at least for now. What Jon is saying is that you won't be able to avoid trading with these human, and that those humans are in a classic bubble formation. Do all of the justifications for valuation that you want but when you will be trading bitcoins at least consider the human factor that you cannot avoid on the trading floor. What Jon is saying is that based on these market conditions it is very likely that you will be able to buy bitcoins later for a much cheaper price. I would suggest buying in small amounts at a time. You can't go wrong with dollar cost averaging to be safe. You seem to have the classic emotional response that Jon, and I have seen a lot of times in a classic bubble market, be it against FRN, Euros or whatever.
Bitcoins are great, this is all good news for Bitcoins. But I for one have, and am still, selling BC and holding on to dollars until I see signs of the bubble burst.
Edit: Look at what happened in May thru July 2011 in the Bitcoin charts. There was a lot of people justifying the value of BC like you are today, at $20/BC and it went up to $30, only to come back down to $20 less than a month later. Down to under $10 in less than 4 mo. And finally under $5 in less than a year. Lots of people got hurt by the bubble burst and it took almost a year to get back to over $10. All these numbers are emotional barriers that you need to keep an eye on, because of natural human behaviors and emotions in this and any market against any form of currencies. Unfortunately you cannot avoid the fact that FRN's is still, as of these days, the world's reserve currency and therefore still has a lot of human emotional ties to it.
And if we use the past, Wouldn't you have felt better if you would of bought a little in July 2011 @ $20, a little more at around $10 in Sept or Oct, little more at $6 to 8, hope fully get a chance to buy at $4 or at least $5. At $12 like it was for a while, you would be even in terms of dollars and would be feeling a lot better about you purchases. This is very likely to happen again from here on out, with different emotional barriers (or numbers) of course. And these bubbles may happen many, many more times in the future, against many different forms of valuation, like against gold for example. As long as there are people, with emotions, in these market, these market will have to go through these phases, and if you are on the wrong side of the market you will be going thru not so good emotions. I've been there,;o).
It is better to look dumb and not be, than to look smart and not be.
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