Comment: We Don't Know Who's Right

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We Don't Know Who's Right

In 2008 my brother and I bet a bottle of wine on the direction of crude oil oil prices. He said it would go above $100 before the end of the year. I said it would go below $60. Crude prices did BOTH in a very short period of time, so we were both right but neither won the bet. Had we been trading crude oil futures we could have both won, or lost, large sums of money - who knows, right?
The point is that at the top the "fundamental" arguments are so strong and logically sound that higher prices seem inevitable. The same is true of bottoms, and in both cases the market proves the fundamentals wrong.