Comment: Its like trading the market

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Its like trading the market

Market traders usually have certain investment classes that they are knowledgeable about and comfortable with. For example, metals traders are experienced with trading physical precious metals, shares of mining stocks, and other related asset classes.

Traders typically will try and determine which direction the market for their preferred assets classes are headed and then either take up short or long positions.

Market trading then requires two basic things: (1) Prediction abilities to determine where the market is headed for your asset classes and (2) A plan to trade the market based on what the predictions say.

The Dept. of Defense in the early years of the new millennium began using a newly developed prediction market called the Policy Analysis Market to attempt to predict terrorist attacks. This is only one of many predictive tools.

While one hand was engaged in making predictions, the other hand was practicing risk management by writing out Contingency Plans which were meant to create scripted reactions to a wide variety of potential events.

There is the ability for certain 'market' participants to take actions which themselves will move the market. Its a kind of self-fulfilling prophecy, but it typically requires some type of government intervention at some level in the market.

What we are seeing is a combination of a well developed ability to predict events and tons of contingency plans to deal with them. A large part of these contingency plans always revolves around the information aspect of the triggering event. There is a strong will on the part of institutions like the DoD to 'control the message'. We've all been seeing this play out in a number of different ways for over a decade now.

(1) Prediction says something is going to happen.
(2) Contingency plans are readied.
(3) A drill is planned for the predicted event.
(4) The event happens.
(5) The contingency plan is put into action.
(6) Forces are already deployed as part of the drill.
(7) The media message is controlled, resulting in shifts in the story line from what was initially reported.
(8) A partially false narrative, controlled by the DoD and/or DoJ emerges and is largely accepted by the populace.