Comment: This is just for base1ass for mentioning my name earlier.

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This is just for base1ass for mentioning my name earlier.

The technician in me agrees with diamond dog, if this were anything but gold I would short it. The chart, coming off a head n shoulders top shows a slight support at 1200, but there is no near term support anywhere in the recent past….if this was a stock I would be all over it….especially with volume declines (lower open interest on futures contracts) If it were a stock I would probably go long some vertical put positions or short vertical calls……all day on those! But this is not a stock and I do not trade commodities…..even knowing as much as you can know about commodities……you will get your head handed to you quite often. I don’t gamble.

The fundamental analysis tells me
1. cost of production ……As long as the producer access to capital is not shut off they will continue to produce and inventory what they produce reducing supply until the price creates an economic profit, not just an accounting profit….so supply shortages
could develope.
2. Gold is not just a commodity to be used as a raw material it has an intrinsic value as hard money.Therefore it will not trade like a stock or any other commodity, Like dog stated, as it’s price declines so will demand, but in that same vain it will trade against paper money based on the Fiscal and Monetary Policies of the country in question…….does anyone on here really want to be on the same side as the USG on that trade……this will lend support at some price above calamity in this country for people that hold gold….for you investors get ready to buy more and hold.
3. If the Fed ever does taper and you have a flight from paper assets…..gold is a hard asset, just like real estate……If or when the fed stops paying interest on reserves, velocity will return and the inflation of the money multiplier will finally have its day, the market is not signaling this as it is in Contango today. But the path of money creation is this day and age is financial assets, real assets & then consumption, so get ready for houses to continue to climb even in face of raising interest rates and gas above 5 and milk above 4.50.

So I agree with Dog in the short term…..3 to 6 months, but after that I believe you will see those fundamentals in the charts. Dog I would cover my shorts at 1200 and then maybe straddle it.

You see base1ass this is what is referred to as “original thought”…….i know you are a stranger to this, but if you make your way out of the kiddy pool and to the “deep” end…..there’s folks in here that will hold your hand.