It means a lot to me.
Not that the words mean anything, really. We're all flying blind when it comes to the future, including me. We can opine all we want about what we think, but at the end of the day, there is only one opinion that matters, and that is Mr. Market himself. We must all bow down and accept his final decision, like it or not.
What I appreciate is that you're willing to take an objective look. Although your saying that if this were anything but gold I would short it shows you're not completely objective. That is okay, as long as you recognize it.
Jim Grant never saw the decline coming. I wish I could find that interview where he said it: "I never saw it coming." He sounded wistful, and I think he even said, "I wish I did." But what I like about that is that he's honest. I wish I could find that interview though. I think it might have been with the Money Honey - Maria Bartoromo. If I find some spare time, I'll look for it.
But it just goes to show that even the best of us - and I do consider Grant to be one of the best, even though I disagree with him on the direction of gold. Of course, in the long term, gold is money. Don't confuse me there. GOLD IS MONEY.
Where I disagree, and would ask you to reconsider, Mr. Goldspan, is on your point #3:
3. If the Fed ever does taper and you have a flight from paper assets…..gold is a hard asset, just like real estate……If or when the fed stops paying interest on reserves, velocity will return and the inflation of the money multiplier will finally have its day, the market is not signaling this as it is in Contango today. But the path of money creation is this day and age is financial assets, real assets & then consumption, so get ready for houses to continue to climb even in face of raising interest rates and gas above 5 and milk above 4.50.
The way The Dog sees it is that if the Fed does taper, there will be a flight from all financial assets -- including gold. The way I see it is that everything is inflated on all this fiat currency. When that starts to deflate, everything that has been pumped up on those steroids will start to deflate again. Stocks, bonds, real estate, used cars, and even gold and silver. Even the price of milk. Because it is all riding high on the juice of fiat money.
As credit is destroyed, the remaining dollars in circulation get more valuable. They buy more of everything. That is just another way of describing deflation.
Of course, this is all just a theory. Who knows what will happen in reality. And you bring up a good point, here:
If or when the fed stops paying interest on reserves, velocity will return and the inflation of the money multiplier will finally have its day, the market is not signaling this as it is in Contango today.
I haven't factored that one in. I'll have to ponder that.
BTW, I wish you told me to cover my short the last time Gold hit 1,200. You would have saved me some considerable pain! Oh well. I'll keep a close eye on the next time it comes near 1,200. It might bounce again. But it might slice through it like a knife through butter. Whatever it does, the market never makes it easy on us.
Thanks Man, for demonstrating that the Daily Paul does indeed exhibit signs of intelligent life. I was getting bogged down by the zombies.
Gold below 1,300 at the moment, per Kitco:
The Diamond Dog is a real cool cat. | Reporting on the world from an altitude of 420.
Want DP delivered to your inbox daily? Subscribe here: