I recently wrote a somewhat lengthy post on this and haven't seen a reasonable argument against it.
Nixon defaulted under very similar circumstances in 1971 but Kissinger's petrodollar scheme prevented a circle the wagons scenario. This time the stakes are exponentially higher and there doesn't appear to be a workable plan for an alternative. The rest of the world has had it up to here with American hegemony and aren't going to take it anymore.
The US could default on all foreign owned debt and repudiate all foreign held reserves of US dollar, currently approx $8T out of $11T total. The unchallenged military might of the US would enforce such a default and dissuade any unhappy customers from ill-advised aggressive moves against the homeland.
American owned treasury debt and corporate bonds could still be honored. American owned foreign assets would no doubt be lost. Like you say, Americans could do very well in such a development, once the extremely chaotic and probably violent transition was over. My guess is the pervasive surveillance state has been created to deal with exactly this eventuality.
This is a total shtf scenario and extremely unlikely. Global elites would have to be defied and that possibility seems remote. Still, it is interesting to think big is it not?
Disclaimer: I do not advocate any part of the above imaginary scenario.
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