Comment: With friends like this ...

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With friends like this ...

Assuming Bitcoin becomes (1) a major player in both e-commerce and money transfer ...

The suggested maximum value they're giving is what bitcoin will be worth when it is a major player in e-commerce (it's not there yet) and money transfer (not there yet eiether).

What they mean by major player in e-commerce is 10% of global on-line shopping (page 7). That part accounts for a bitcoin value of 1BTC = $433.

What they mean by major player in money transfer is that it becomes one of the top three players in the industry. That adds another $390 of value per bitcoin, bringing the total for this part to $823 per bitcoin.

... and (2) a significant store of value with a reputation close to silver, ...

AND also assuming that it will have a reputation as a store of value close to silver. Their calculation here seems a bit screwy to me -- they ratio of volatility metrics for gold over bitcoin, multiplied by the amount of gold in the world, then dividing by 60 because that's the ratio of silver to gold. WTF? The main point is that it can't act as a store of value while the valuation is swinging so wildly.

... our fair market value analysis implies a maximum market capitalization of Bitcoin of $15bn (1BTC = 1300 USD)

So *if* ten percent of all e-commerce in the world were done in bitcoin, and *if* bitcoin handled enough money transfer business to be in the top three of that industry, and *if* it were used as a store of value with a reputation comparable to that of silver, it's fair market valuation would be about a 25 percent gain from here.

No publicity is bad publicity though. And a bright spot in their analysis for bitcoin fans is that they think it will be a "winner takes all" market.

https://s3.amazonaws.com/s3.documentcloud.org/documents/8858...