Comment: Nice summary

(See in situ)


Nice summary

The thing I'd disagree with most strongly is using the word "instant" to describe transactions. Also, while most transactions are currently free that's in the process of changing. As mining becomes less profitable it's necessary that miners continue to run the mining software because that's how the ledger is updated, so the plan is to change the way transaction fees are handled to make that profitable. See for example https://bitcoinfoundation.org/blog/?p=290 .

A physical form could exist at some point, but not without some trusted authority safeguarding the data in some way. There are various schemes for doing this, but none without a trusted authority.

The use of bitcoin to purchase things is, with very few exceptions, accomplished by selling bitcoins for whatever the local currency is, then using that currency for the purchase. There are services that do this for you, for a fee, but that's still what's being done. This is unlikely to change while the price is so volatile. It would be more accurate to say that bitcoin isn't currently behaving like a currency, but it might eventually.

The explanation of bitcoin's competitors is rosy, especially the line "while all bitcoin's attributes could be said about its competitors, they apply most it it." The only attribute that applies "mostly to bitcoin" is brand strength. More accurate would be to say "bitcoin currently has the strongest brand strength by far among all the digital currencies, although there are many competitors that offer the same technical attributes as bitcoin, and in some cases offer arguable advantages over bitcoin" but that wouldn't be as persuasive for bitcoin.

The transactions aren't recorded by the mining software "nearly instantly" at all. A new block has to be generated. Blocks are, by design, generated approximately once every ten minutes. Below that, "instant, unlimited and free global transactions" is only accurate about "unlimited."

The BOA analysis didn't say it was "limited to the equivalent of a $15 Billion market." That was just a projection for the maximum fair market value at some hypothetical future point if three conditions are met -- ten percent of global e-commerce in bitcoin, competitive in volume with Western Union for that kind of fund transfer, and with a reputation as a reliable store of value comparable to that of silver. Those are some optimistic goals considering that bitcoin isn't remotely close to meeting any of them, but that's not to say that if it ever achieves those goals it can't go on to do even more.

Re: Other optimistic evaluations place its final market over $100 Trillion, which would translate to a value of over $1 Million each. Yeah, people say that. Try to start from the BOA analysis and either explain what they got wrong in the methodology, or plug in numbers making even more optimistic assumptions and see what you get. The downside to having analysts doing serious analysis is that it starts to become obvious that just picking a big number and dividing by 21 million is bogus.

The last line about bitcoin becoming " the only currency to exist" made me laugh. What are you assuming about competing digital currencies? What level of scalability would that imply, and how would bitcoin achieve it?

Would the people who have become avid bitcoin supporters after seeing that presentation have become avid bitcoin supporters if they had a more balanced picture of bitcoin's potential and the obstacles that still have to be overcome?