Comment: If in Texas, in 2012, Dewhurst had 45% of the vote and Cruz had

(See in situ)


If in Texas, in 2012, Dewhurst had 45% of the vote and Cruz had

34% of the vote then 79% of the vote was spoken for by the top two candidates. And 21% was up for grabs.

Dewhurst had to make up 6% (51-45) to put him over the top, and Cruz had to make up 17% (51-34).

So the percentage of the up-for-grabs voters Cruz would have to win over in the runoff would be 17/(6+17) or 17/23 or 74%. That means Cruz had to win 74% of the voters who were up-for-grabs, to win 51% altogether and take the nomination.

If currently Graham has 48% and Bright has 9% (we will assume Bright is in second place) then Graham only has to make up 3% (51-48) to put him over the top, and Bright has to make up 42% (51-9).

So the percentage of the up-for-grabs voters Bright would have to win over in the runoff would be 42/(3+42) or 42/45 or 93.33% That means that Bright would have to win 93.33% of the voters who are up for grabs to win 51% altogether and take the nomination.

And its practically impossible for a guy polling at 9% to pick up 93.33% of the up-for-grab voters.