Comment: Bright is going to have more

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Bright is going to have more

Bright is going to have more than 9% of the vote on Election Day. Graham is also going to have less than 48% on Election Day.

If graham doesn't avoid a runoff, he's historically screwed. In elections where all the challengers are complete anti-incumbent challengers, and the incumbent doesn't get 50% , historically the incumbent gets even less of the vote in the runoff election. If Graham goes into the runoff it's over, as there's not one challenger Graham would pull votes from. It's also more likely all the anti-Graham votes will vote a 2nd time and Graham's voters are less likely to turn out a 2nd time.