This topic is of interest to me, so my questions are purely to gain more understanding from someone who makes a living in the gold market. If you have time or interest, I would love to read your answers.
1) The cost of gold is currently at or below the cost of production for many miners. Does than mean the miners have done a poor job controlling costs, or is the market signaling to the miners that there is not enough demand for them to stay in business?
2) Do extended negative GOFO rates indicate a constraint in physical supply of gold? If so, why isn't gold priced at a level that miners can make a profit selling it?
3) Do you have a rational explanation for the huge selling that is done in the gold futures market during thinly traded hours? The price often spikes downward in a very short time, and market circuit breakers have been triggered occasionally as large sell orders have been dumped onto the market.
I'm not an expert, but my intuitive answers to the above 3 questions lead me to believe that the price of gold is being suppressed below what it would naturally be in a free market. I agree with you that the value of the dollar relative to other fiat currencies is irrelevant. The important thing is the value of the dollar relative to tangible things, most notably gold and oil. If the market is manipulated, as I suspect it is, then the dollar isn't as healthy as it appears.
We all want progress, but if you're on the wrong road, progress means doing an about-turn and walking back to the right road; in that case, the man who turns back soonest is the most progressive.
-C. S. Lewis