But Ron Paul's body of work isn't to sell a newsletter or a product.
The things you mentioned have not run their course at all. Japan lasted a lot longer (and still is) with their deflationary spiral. The Yen has survived quite well even though Japan has the largest debt to GDP ratio of any modern nation. It is "perception" that keeps them afloat. Their citizens buy most all their nations debt, about 98%. But cracks are coming in their Humpty Dumpty economy. They no longer are a strong exporter. Their monetary policy last year was for a weaker Yen and now they are taxing more. I see Japan cracking well before the U.S. does.
China has huge issues. Russia isn't close to being a player, but they are still trying to hold onto the illusion they mean something (other than natural gas supplier and a thorn in Europe's side). Not everyone is moving away from the dollar. In fact, Argentina, Brazil, and others will gladly sell you their currencies at a discount to get dollars. China's not going to make their currency stronger for any reason for decades. Why would they? Why would they make their products more expensive? Do you hear Congress calling them out any longer? No. Congress needs China to continue being a buyer of Treasuries. Treasuries are still strong I might add, even though they pay very little. Somehow the hyper-inflationists miss this point.
Will things be perfect for the dollar? No. We all know the issues facing it here at home. But I think the attention will head to Europe and Japan next. At least that's one of the points I'm making in my next book.
If Russia and the Ukraine issue was important, gold would have taken off. It hasn't. Dollar is still above 80 on the Index. Treasuries have only gotten stronger of late. Lots of headwind for gold unfortunately. I don't want to be right, but I just call it like I see it. I can also change my mind on a silver dime and I will when I write my "all-in" article. Most anyone who has read my articles the last year or so know I've been waiting patiently to write it. If I'm right, and we do break lower, then great for those who have waited. If I am wrong, then most will have dollar cost averaged into a good position and will continue to buy at a good price compared to where we are headed in the next year or so. A return of 50% is still good but some will make 70% (if they sell). I don't think either will complain (and these are just arbitrary numbers to make a point).
Thanks for the reply.
Author of Buy Gold and Silver Safely
Next book: Illusions of Wealth - due out soon
Also writing book We the Serfs!
Want DP delivered to your inbox daily? Subscribe here: