Comment: MUCH closer.

Actually it was much closer than 3 1/2 hours.

PST is 3 hrs behind EST, so your original post caught it within a minute and your estimate within under a half hour. Sweet. (Though not as sweet as in-and-out with a 44 point bump. B-) )

I'd think gold would turn around if/when any of the sovereign funds (or other giant holders) start cashing in. This would trigger a fight over the remaining value in the currency, which would take the form of a race to cash in before the competition. With several big players, some of which would love to see the US brought to its knees even if it hurts them too, I have a hard time believing this will hold off for a year. (And it's the sort of external event that wouldn't necessarily be predicted by models that look forward from historical price trends - more like an earthquake than normal market behavior.)

Do you think that this is an unreasonable expectation?

(I ask because I was thinking that gold is likely to be near enough its low that this might be the time to be picking some up in expectation of major-to-hyper inflation some time in the next couple years. I've had several big market shifts that I expected in this fashion that I missed trading on because they happened sooner than I thought they would)