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Important - How much MORE do you plan to give Dec 16?

Yesterday’s moneybomb was a financial homerun – our 2nd biggest day of the year by far. Unfortunately, as an attention grabber for the media, it was a complete dud. Now, the media is somewhat to blame for this, but the real blame lies with us. We sent out press releases to several different media outlets trumpeting that we’re expecting to bring in $2.5 million this weekend. When we brought in “only” $0.5 million, naturally it looked like our support was splintering to those in the media who don’t follow our every move, especially since we were able to bring in $4.3 million one month ago.

My point here isn't to castigate those that made the predictions. I am certain that they were sincerely doing what they thought was best. My point is that we need to recognize our mistakes and learn from them. Many of us are novices in campaigning, but one of the first rules you learn is it’s all about EXCEEDING expectations. Winning early primaries is FAR less important than doing better than the “experts” expected. This gives the campaign perceived momentum. Nobody wants to contribute to a campaign that is declining or fracturing, regardless whether they're in 1st or 6th.

Therefore, I think it is imperative that we do our damndest to determine how much we really are expecting on Dec 16 BEFORE we make any more wild ass predictions to our “friends” in the media again. The last thing we need is to bring in say $5 million, only to have the results come in well below our estimates, and thereby setting us up, once again, to look like we’re fracturing.

All this being said, I think the best way to determine the amount to expect is to do a survey here as to how much everyone is planning to give on Dec 16 RELATIVE to how much they have already given to the campaign up to date. For example, if you’ve given the campaign $500 to date, and plan on giving $250 more, then you’re percentage would be 50%. If you’re planning to give $100 more, you’re percentage would be 20%. If you’re gonna bust the bank and give $1500, you’re percentage would be 300%. Just take what you plan to give, divide it by what you already have given, and multiply it by 100.

The advantage to using percentages, rather than dollar amounts, to predict the take on Dec 16, is that it doesn’t matter how many responses we get since we’re only looking to calculate an average percentage. Once we know the average percentage we can multiply this percentage by the total amount given by EVERYBODY, to get a reasonable guess as to the Dec 16 numbers. If the average percentage turns out to be 25%, then our prediction for Dec 16 would be $10.3 mil times .25, or $2.57 mil. Get it?

To start things off, I have given $900 to the campaign so far, and plan on giving $500 more on Dec 16. Therefore, my percentage is 56%.

Please post here a ballpark guess as to what additional percentage you plan to give, and lets make sure we EXCEED expectations next time.

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I'm Giving $200 on the 16th......

....maybe a few bucks more. Ask all the friends and family. You can always get the cash from them to boost your credit card contribution.

It shows Ron Paul can raise money at any time

Last week was Thanks giving and Black Friday. . It's also the end of the month For people like seniors or people living on a fixed incomes. Thats alot of money to be raised at this time of year .The 16th will put the fear of death into the Communists and Neocons.A huge fund Raising a week before Christmas and New Years eve. Then the Year starts Over

I won't tell you :-)

There are people placing bets on the Teaparty outcome, so I am not going to say how much I intend to donate. I don't think anyone needs to post how much they are donating. I'm small bits, but I know everything I donate is well appreciated by Dr. Paul and that's my only concern. The Teaparty will be a huge success even if it did'nt meet it's goal.

Feeder site:
http://www.ronpaulexpress...

oops

Raw percerntages without amounts (or facsimile) cannot be calculated into a proper weighted percentage.

Example: 10% of $1000 = $100 500% of $20 = $100

actual % would be: ($100 + $100) / ($1000 + $20) = <20%

calulated % would be: ???? u were thinkin (10% + 500%)???

There are reasons we don't herd very easily. :)

For Liberty!
Will

donations

I hope to donate $20-$40. I can't afford much more. I'm going to try to talk my parents into donating into the hundreds.

6 million day

I hope I'm wrong, I really really really hope we will reach 10 million....but 6 will be great ;)

Btw, gambling911 dot com is currently using this 6 million Tea Party fundraiser number as a high low. Are they wrong?

Fyi, I donated about $500 prior to Nov 5th. $150 on 11-5. $100 on 11-11. $60 yesterday, I'm driving [2000 miles] to Boston 12-16 so I probably will go cheap, say $50, but I am calling registered independent and democrat voters in Clinton county Iowa on the way there.

Clinton county is heavily democratic, and likely many Edwards/Obama folks...but I'm from there and believe very strongly in Ron's positions. John Edwards has virtually lived in Iowa for two years and he is still locked in a dead heat with Obama and Hillary. Obama is a bright man, but basically a celebrity candidate, and Hillary, as bright as she is and as politically savvy, seems to be very devisive even among Democratic activists.

Fiscal sanity, liberty, freedom, non-interventionism and a mind-your-own business social policy has appeal across party lines so don’t be afraid to try and sell your Democratic friends on Ron Paul!

agree with that estimate

On Nov 5th 20k pledges gave us 4M. If the pledge/donation ratio stays the same, and I think it will we are looking at 6M (teaParty is at 22k pledges now, and it should make it to 30k by Dec 16th)

Any Donation Big or Small is Worthy of Winning...for Ron Paul!

I missed donating on the 5th. But, subsequently, I have emailed my friends/family about the 16th, joined meet-up, will handwrite letters to Iowans and will canvass my neighbors with an invitation to my Bill of Rights party (Saturday the 15th--so they can donate on the 16th). The success of the 5th captured my enthusiasm to be involved.

I received a campaign plea on the 20th and made my first (small) donation that day and a small purchase from the store yesterday to support Rudy's Reading List. I don't plan to donate again before December 16th.

On the 16th, I plan to give 96% of what I have already given. I cannot give $100, nor can the members of my family, but I am sure there will be a few new small donations from them. (None of them donated on the 5th.) It all adds up.

The 16th needs to be big to catch the media's attention. If not for November 5th, Dr. Paul's name would still be no where in print. Exceeding November 5th is absolutely necessary.

ANY more "money bombs" between now and December 16th will dilute the impact of that day. People who push for the Tea Party understand how the media works. We don't want it to be a "Ticker" item on CNN; we want it to be front page.

I do agree that if we predict a number larger than we meet, any funds raised are going to be poo-pooed by the press. A ballpark estimate based on % isn't a bad idea.

Just remember:
Any Donation Big or Small is Worthy of Winning the White House for Paul!

I've found a pattern

Nov 5 = 18,000 pledges for 100$, 18,000 *100$ =1.8 Million$, but Nov 5 raised 4.3 million, a little over two times the pledged amount.
Nov 30 = 2,184 pledges for 100$, 2,184 *100$ = 218,400$, but Nov 30th raised 535,000$, about equal to two times the amount pledged.

Hmmm...

It seems that I was responding to your post simultaneously as you were editting it. This may make my response seem out of place since much of my post was in reply to some unkind words you had written about the thread topic. I thank you for editting out these inflammatory remarks and I urge you to take this into account as you read my reply.

I take my marching orders from the Constitution!

Ok, this post goes in the "you're doing it wrong" category ...

... with crossovers into the "it's pointless" category and the "I've already done it and done it better" category. Thank you for proving my point from my post "like herding cats".

Unfortunately, you're foolish if you think it's smart to wait til after the event to issue a press release. The press release, if done properly, could generate enormous interest and donations from those that otherwise would never donate, but only if they hear about it BEFORE it occurs. It's called the herd instinct, and it's quite powerful. These same people would be highly unlikely to contribute on days succeeding the event without the herd egging them on.

And no, obviously everyone donating money to this event doesn't read Daily Paul. I don't have to survey everyone, because I'm only looking for people to list the additional PERCENTAGE of what they gave before, and then calculate the average percentage from that. There's no reason to believe that this percentage should be any different whether they're a Daily Paul member or not, so only surveying posters here should give reasonable data.

The pattern you list is intriguing, but what's different here is that this, no doubt, will be the last fundraising event of the year for most contributers. As a result, many people may be inclined to give far more to this one than any before, because they won't be saving some for the next big fundraiser.

I take my marching orders from the Constitution!

No reason to talk specific numbers.

Press release for the Teaparty bomb with comments that it will exceed the November 5th bomb is enough. I've read the press release saying that we were expecting 2.5 mill. It looks bad that we did not raise the amount.

.

.

Don't Count Your Chickens Before They're Hatched

I believe it is best not to make any predictions to the press. I don't think Ron Paul would either. Better to have a successful Tea Party and brag about it afterwards. The only certainty at this point is that that there are almost 23,000 pledges, which had they all donated yesterday would not have covered the 2.5 million that someone apparently predicted to the press. Remember, we were aiming for 10 million on November 5th and it was still a huge success because the story came out after the fact.

Like herding cats

Just had to repeat this post again. Examining all these posts, it's so true with you guys. LOL.

Whoever said that "trying to organize libertarians is like herding cats" absolutely knew what he was talking about. Ask 100 libertarians for one simple thing and you get maybe 5 that give you exactly what you ask for. Out of the other 95 you get maybe 50 that tell you you're doing it wrong, 25 that say it's pointless, 10 that say they've already done it and did it better, 7 that question whether you're a troll, 5 that completely ignore the topic and rail about something else, and 3 that misunderstand your request and give you the wrong answer. LOL.

Don’t get me wrong. I probably do the same thing most of the time, too. I love all you guys so much, but y’all can be such PITA’s, if you know what I mean. The resistance to following directions is simultaneously the BEST thing about libertarians and the WORST thing.

Well, just this one time, can we all just give the simple answer to the question. Start a new thread with your superior ideas if you must, but just try and follow directions just this once on this thread. Humor me. I promise it wont hurt too much ---> What additional percentage do you plan to give on Dec 16?

I take my marching orders from the Constitution!

Which am I?..LOL

I notice you started with 100 libertarians and ended up with 105 total? Are those 5 extra's gay general plants from the Hitlery campaign or what?..LOL

Have a great day all!

Oh yeah, put me down for 100%

No - illegal immigrants!!

LOL. Sorry, thanks for catching my faux pas.

I take my marching orders from the Constitution!

i think 16 million to 24 million target window

i think the 16million to 24 target window will just happen...

Anywhere in there is fine...then lets fund all the key pacs in the early states for supporters, commercials, etc.

I missed Nov 5th.

I donated zero dollars on Nov 5th, and will be donating $300 for the tea party. Quite a few people just like me will be doing about the same (people ive since turned on to RP).

I would like to help explain why Paul polls are constantly lower than what his fundraising and supporters would expect.

Most of the media and polling companies get their list of people they call from previous voting years' voter registrations. And if youve been to any of these RP meetups and rallies, youll notice almost none of Ron Pauls supporters were registered voting republicans last voting cycle. We are in for a big suprise soon as these early states' results come in.

Breaking this down into realistic numbers for Dec 16th

10,000 contributions @ $1,000 = $10M
20,000 contributions @ $500 = $10M
40,000 contributions @ $25 = $10M

Now this equals 70,000 contributions, but "what if" all of the above scenarios actually happend together?! That would "realistically" yield $30M! We know the "average" contribution being asked is $100, but we know there are some loading their guns for this one, while others just coming onboard are either not enthusiastic enough to buy in big OR simply cannot make those larger contributions (college students, retirees, etc). Point being, any of the above scenarios "could" happen, but I like to think of if all three groups gave what "would" happen!

If the Schiff people and the Holistic health food/drug people both participate (i.e. new donors NOT maxed out), this could be on veeeeeeery interesting day!

40,000 @ $250 ..............

40,000 @ $250 .............. not 25

Realistic?

I've seen nothing that would indicate that we've doubled the number of people who are willing to donate to the campaign since the 5th, when we got 38K.

That's not even discounting the number of people who donated on the 5th but have since topped out.

go by tea party

Add 40% to the pledges 3.5 million so far I think!

Watch freedomtofascism.com

Some common sense... not that the media would understand...

Yesterday was a great success. I wouldn't call half a million dollars small change. Add to this the blimp money and the USA Today advert, and the last half of November benefited the campaign to the tune of more than a million dollars. The advert shown at the cnn "debate" also did not cost the campaign a dime. The campaign is way ahead of its budget and December 16 still lies ahead.

So far this quarter, the campaign received donations from more than 116,000 donors. If they all pitched in on average $100 (in line with the Nov. 5 average), the day should yield more than $10 million. In addition, since November 5, Dr. Mercola asked his 1.3 million subscribers to donate $100 each on December 16. Peter Schiff, a money manager on Wall Street, asked his 60,000 clients and business contacts to donate the maximum to the Paul campaign. I hope they are smart enough to do so on December 16.

Many of us, at least the most ardent 20,000, will watch the thermometer on December 16 and if by nightfall, our earlier donations and those from the rest were not sufficient to reach the $10 million target, we will keep on giving until we're maxed out; no amount of financial pain will stop us from reaching the $10 million target. I hope the campaign can deal with the avalanche of donations on the day.

In the mean time, scrimp and save [no car washes, no non-essential dry cleaning, eat at home, no haircuts, no renewal of subscription, no unnecessary driving, no toys, no clothes, no donations to the GOP, no donations to National Right to Life ever (endorsed CFReddie), no tithes to the Baptist church (just kidding), no traffic fines (drive very carefully and within limits), no soda, no candy, stay away from the mall, forget about Christmas until after December 16], and talk to, e-mail and contact every one you can, asking them kindly but insistently to be generous this Christmas and give our country's future a boost by donating to the Paul campaign on December 16. No doubt they'll say yes, but talk is cheap. Make a note and call them on December 16, not the day before.

In the end, we win.

I appreciate your enthusiasm, BUT...

The very topic of this thread is really no one's business. Here we "preach" privacy, but we want people to "ante up" in public?

If you give and even STATE what you give publicly--no problem, but do not "ask" people what they are giving. They will give what they will give-- period. It can make those whose financial contributions are not as great as others "think" that their donation "won't make a difference" and that is NOT the case, as some of these donations are given out of extreme sacrifice, even at lower numbers (if not ESPECIALLY at lower numbers).

Again, I appreciate your enthusiasm, but this should be reconsidered out of sheer sensitivity to those whose contributions are just as "great" though smaller in dollar amount.

No violation of privacy...

in asking individuals about a % increase in their contribution. We're all consenting adults here, by virtue of the fact that we're participating in this forum, and if anyone is uncomfortable with the topic, they can kindly point that out or simply decline to answer -

But I agree about people being discouraged by not being able to give - Nobody should feel that way... PLEASE do not go down that route, anyone. At the NY rally, an 8 year old boy gave Dr. Paul 4 dollars he'd saved from his allowance - to help him become president. Dr. Paul was touched, and encouraged, and resolved to do right by his supporters and by this little boy who looked up to him. Every single donation counts... even if it's just a couple dollars - because millions of people with a couple dollars each is significant...

Remember, I think Q3 it was estimated that our average campaign donation was $40 - $50... and we raised 5.4 million. Let nobody feel ashamed of their lack of resources. You can't put a price tag on our message - it's more valuable than $5 or $2300... We only honor it and promote it and fight towards it, but we can't buy it... so we need everyone. :)

VR.

That's why I asked for a percentage.

I don't need to know the dollar figure, just the percentage. If you answer that you're giving an additional 50%, that could mean you're giving $200 more after previously giving $400. Or it could mean that you're giving $10 after previously giving $20. Giving the answer in percentage terms COMPLETELY protects your privacy in this regard.

In addition, I'm not forcing anyone to answer the question at all. If you don't want anyone to know how much you're giving then that is fine. Don't answer. It won't affect the survey because we're only looking for the average percentage, not a monetary total.

I take my marching orders from the Constitution!

Like herding cats

Whoever said that "trying to organize libertarians is like herding cats" absolutely knew what he was talking about. Ask 100 libertarians for one simple thing and you get maybe 5 that give you exactly what you ask for. Out of the other 95 you get maybe 50 that tell you you're doing it wrong, 25 that say it's pointless, 10 that say they've already done it and did it better, 7 that question whether you're a troll, 5 that completely ignore the topic and rail about something else, and 3 that misunderstand your request and give you the wrong answer. LOL.

Don’t get me wrong. I probably do the same thing most of the time, too. I love all you guys so much, but y’all can be such PITA’s, if you know what I mean. The resistance to following directions is simultaneously the BEST thing about libertarians and the WORST thing.

Well, just this one time, can we all just give the simple answer to the question. Start a new thread with your superior ideas if you must, but just try and follow directions just this once on this thread. Humor me. I promise it wont hurt too much ---> What additional percentage do you plan to give on Dec 16?

I take my marching orders from the Constitution!

I think $16 million

I think $16 million should be our stated goal for the 4th quarter. Firstly, this is $4 million ABOVE the campaign's goal. So the headline should read something like: "Grassroots expects to beat Ron Paul campaign's fourth quarter goal by $4-million dollars." Then, by my calculation, we will achieve $11 million before Dec 16th and then $6 million on December 16th. That's $1 million ABOVE our own stated expectations! It would be hard for the MSM to spin that in a negative light.

I, personally, gave $500 on Nov 5th... Ron Paul was my first campaign contribution ever. I will beat that on December 16. It may be $600, but I am trying for $1000.00.

I challenge every Ron Paul supporter to up his planned Dec 16th contribution by a little. Double would be nice, but if you can only increase by $10 and 40,000 people do that, its an extra $400,000 for the day.

Incidentally, here's a little trick you can do to increase the fun of donation... If you donate during a relatively quiet time, your name will appear on the Ron Paul donation thermometer. Be ready for it, and hit alt-prnt scrn when you see your name. That copies the web page to the clipboard. Then open Paint, Photoshop, Paint Shop Pro or other image editing software and paste the image from the clipboard. Then crop the image to the thermometer picture with your name in it! I have two so far! Here's my second one: http://the-warrens.com/do... I like this one because it has the bug in the applet that can't display the number because it's too big, having just rolled over $10 million!
_______
"But let it not be said we did nothing."
-- Ron Paul

I think thats stupid,

I think thats stupid, increasing the campaign goal... If we beat the campaign goal, that will speak for itself. It was set at 12 mil, let it stay there! And in a worst case scenario, we increase the campaign goal and don't meet it, look at all the bad publicity we will receive!

why do we shoot ourselves in the foot

Why do we keep shooting ourselves in the foot here. 'Money Bombs' EVERY week, promising millions of dollars raised, and press releases sent out.

I see a few things wrong with what we're doing.

1) We're over extending and drawing ourselves thin with all the money bombs. Why split your donations up in 3-5 smaller chunks when you can donate all of it all at once, along with everyone else, and cause a sensation like we did on the 5th.

2) We're promising big and delivering short. Thats opposite of what you want. They best strategy is to promise small and deliver large. Don't brag about how we're going to raise 10 million and send out a press release about it, because even if we come up short, even if we've raised a huge amount of money, we still look like we failed at achieving our goal.

I for one do plan on donating on the 16th. I have not donated since the 5th. I also will not sign up for the pledge count because I want our total amount raised, and total amount of donors, to be more than what they (the media) expect. If they're expecting it, its not big news. If we surprise them, its hugs news.

we have to outdo the 5th...

...or the media will take no notice of our efforts. they HAVE to acknowledge the tea party if we surpass the $5 million mark on the 16th. the campaign got their little boost with this $500,000 bomb, so now we need focus on spreading the message.

The thing is that....

Ron Paul himself has mentioned that Dec. 16th is gonna be bigger than Nov 5th. We certainly can't disappoint him, and I thought it was very smart of him to say that.

Ron Paul, Educating America

My plan

I did $200.00 on the 5th and plan to do $400.00 on the 16th.
$100.00 for each member of my family.

$100

I'm only 18 .. i dropped 200 on the 5th ... and i can only drop 100 now .. i have to save money for my dad .. he got his cancer back

If your Dad's got cancer and

If your Dad's got cancer and you really need that money I will drop $100 for you. I have $1799 left to drop for the 16th.

Personally...

I plan to give $500 on the 16th. I'll be going to Iraq the first week of January, so I can survive without it.

wow HOOAH SOLDIER

wow man ... show this one to John "Mr. Troops" Mccain ... that idiot thinks he is literally the troops ... he represents no one .. the only thing he represents it not torturing ... thats it ... so SHUT UP JOHN MCCAIN

Thank you for your service to our country sir ... we all appreciate your $500 dollars and your support for Ron Paul ...God Speed .... and come home safely

I second that!

I second that!

Tea Party

Why do we have to set a number? Why not just say the skies the limit with the blimp flying around? Like Dr. Paul says THIS IS BIG a growing grassroots campaign. THE SKY IS THE LIMIT! BIG BUCKS FOR RON PAUL
Woo Hoo!

The correct formula

Will be about 100$ x whatever the pledges are. That's why the pledges are there.

Dec 16

200%

Was the money bomb yesterday

Was the money bomb yesterday a planned thing? I don't even remember hearing about it until, well, yesterday.

not giving any more till 16th

sezzso it kind of pisses me off that they pushed another donation day so hard this is a revolution, follow your gut the 16th is what is going to deliver $$$ and any positive media response, but they are going to hit us up agian before then-its two weeks away dont do it

Weekend?

If the press releases said $2.5 million this weekend, let me point out the weekend runs until Sunday midnight!

Why an estimate?

We shouldn't be arrogant. Just let it happen. A prediction can only hurt the campaign. I don't see any logic in a press report prediction donations before they are given.

hear hear...

stop assuming things and just let it happen! we have to fight this battle making no predictions, just pour all of our energy and money into it and what happens happens.

i am 200 dollars from being

i am 200 dollars from being maxed out and my wife is about 1500 from being maxed out.. on the 16th I will be maxed out and my wife will give 100.00....

very confident.

I'm very confident in TeaParty07.

Remember that we had roughly 19,000 pledges for Nov05th. And ended up with about 37,000 donors - maybe 16 or 17 thousand new donors. Roughly $115 per donor.

TeaParty has almost 23,000 pledged donors - and is growing by 500-1000 people daily... with 15 more days to go... It's not impossible that we can hit 35,000 pledges... Keep in mind, that there can be just as many non-pledge and new donors. 70,000 donors... $100 each? $150 each? And I think alot of us are better prepared for TeaParty, have told more of our friends about it, it's received more coverage and Buzz... So I'm very confident.

So far I've donated about $300 to the campaign, I can possibly do $200 more (max) so that's a 67% increase.

Dec.16 pledge %

36%