
Jim Sinclair's Countdown To Dollar Implosion
Submitted by jeff34761 on Mon, 08/31/2009 - 11:14
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
It never ceases to amaze me what hype people will believe. The latest is a series of posts by Jim Sinclair who on August 14, started a countdown to dollar oblivion.
An 85 day countdown to a break on the US dollar below .76 from .78 hardly seems worthy of a countdown.
And it would be nice if Sinclair told us a bit more than "I am informed that Chinese interests want to see both in 2009."
Informed by who? A top ranking official? Minnie Mouse? Uncle Joe? At least give us a hint.
The thing about these kind of predictions is how predictably wrong they have all been.
Based on interpretations of the Commitment of Traders Reports (COT) we have see a couple countdowns to running out of gold and or silver on COMEX by various people. Those never happened. We have seen "gold to the moon" hyperinflation calls based on backwardation. Those never happened, either.
There is also a bunch of hype going around right now about bank holidays and a devaluation of the dollar vs. all major currencies coming up this Autumn. The across the board dollar devaluation idea is potty because the US dollar floats. There is nothing to devalue it to. And even if there was, Europe and Japan do not want stronger currencies and would not go along. For that matter the US would not want to do it either fearing a market crash. Yet, the theories persist.
If something does happen in November, it will not be because some blogger knows something. It will be happenstance.
But for those counting, it's about 70 days. I can hardly wait.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com















I am not sure I understand this comment...
"The across the board dollar devaluation idea is potty because the US dollar floats. There is nothing to devalue it to."
It can of course be devalued to zero by printing it into oblivion. Perhaps he needs someone to send him a Zimbabwean 1 trillion dollar bill? More Keynesian nonsense, and you can rest assured somewhere along the line there is a monetary incentive for him to spew this bile.
In the beginning of a change the patriot is a scarce man, and brave, and hated and scorned. When his cause succeeds, the timid join him, for then it costs nothing to be a patriot.
~Mark Twain
Always remember:
"It does not require a majority to prevail, but rather an irate, tireless minority keen to set brush fires in people's minds." ~ Samuel Adams
Stay IRATE, remain TIRELESS, and set those BRUSH FIRES everywhere you go and in everything
Mish is also an idiot... Jim
Mish is also an idiot... Jim Sinclair is right...
A prudent man foresees the difficulties ahead and prepares for them; the simpleton goes blindly on and suffers the consequences. Proverbs 22:3
Matthew 10:34 Think not that I am come to
send peace on earth: I came not to send peace,
but a sword.
A prudent man foresees the difficulties ahead and prepares for them; the simpleton goes blindly on and suffers the consequences. Proverbs 22:3
Matthew 10:34 Think not that I am come to
send peace on earth: I came not to send peace,
but a sword.
It was on
last night Katherine Austin Fitts (spelling may be off) was talking about the United Nations wants a new global currency and they must bring their new global currency to fruition so they can bring in their global form of government.I agree - buying gold is best to secure any value of wealth.
Detective Krum Investigates:
http://victory1project.wordpress.com/
http://v1-p.com/
Detective Krum Investigates:
http://victory1project.wordpress.com/
http://politicaltrackingnetwork.wordpress.com/
looks like Jim Sinclair is
looks like Jim Sinclair is right again.. read the first 3 or 4 articles on his site http://jsmineset.com/
some people never learn...
A prudent man foresees the difficulties ahead and prepares for them; the simpleton goes blindly on and suffers the consequences. Proverbs 22:3
Matthew 10:34 Think not that I am come to
send peace on earth: I came not to send peace,
but a sword.
sierra
your new nick totally fits you.
with china buying IMF bonds
with china buying IMF bonds all I can say is .. tic....toc....tic...toc....tic...toc..
A prudent man foresees the difficulties ahead and prepares for them; the simpleton goes blindly on and suffers the consequences. Proverbs 22:3
Matthew 10:34 Think not that I am come to
send peace on earth: I came not to send peace,
but a sword.
now some real history
now some real history lessons for jeffrey... this will be way over his head...
Will Gold reach $5000 plus?
http://moneytalks.net/index.php?view=article&catid=48%3Adail...
A prudent man foresees the difficulties ahead and prepares for them; the simpleton goes blindly on and suffers the consequences. Proverbs 22:3
Matthew 10:34 Think not that I am come to
send peace on earth: I came not to send peace,
but a sword.
You said the same thing about oil and silver last year
You said the same thing about oil and silver last year. Last year when oil was $120, you predicted it was going to $200. Oil rallied to $140, as usual you claimed a false victory, then Oil corrected down, down, down to the $60's.
You also predicted silver would be $25 by Thanksgiving of last year, much higher after the collapse of COMEX (you predicted) in Dec. 2008. The only history lesson I've learned from you on the board is you are always wrong. Market corrections are healthy and a normal function of the free market. Get over yourself bad_karma. Its you that is in way over your head, you just can't admit it. You are still a year too early in your hyperinflation argument.
Sept, is typically the best month for upward prices in metals historically
( a seasonal adjustment). This does not mean Prechter is wrong, or that metals will not correct later and create a buying opportunity.
The 3rd quarter numbers will not be out until mid Oct. But I suspect that both the stock and commodities markets are in for a fall this Fall. The net result should be a rush to treasuries (and perhaps oil) and a dollar rally. I don't expect good 1st quarter numbers either, and a high spot price of metals today are certainly not going to help jewelry sales this Dec.You bad_karma will be proven wrong again. The strongest indicator for a sustained metals rally is oil, still under $70. So until oil moves up above $100 a barrel, I doubt this seasonal metals rally is sustainable. In short bad_karma, if i want a history lesson I'll ask for it. Your predictions always have two things in common, they are based on hype and always wrong.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/09/so-whats-...
jeff3456098(nobrains)987
jeff3456098(nobrains)987 said
The 3rd quarter numbers will not be out until mid Oct. But I suspect that both the stock and commodities markets are in for a fall this Fall. The net result should be a rush to treasuries (and perhaps oil) and a dollar rally. I don't expect good 1st quarter numbers either, and a high spot price of metals today are certainly not going to help jewelry sales this Dec.You bad_karma will be proven wrong again. The strongest indicator for a sustained metals rally is oil, still under $70. So until oil moves up above $100 a barrel, I doubt this seasonal metals rally is sustainable. In short bad_karma, if i want a history lesson I'll ask for it. Your predictions always have two things in common, they are based on hype and always wrong.
well jeffry here is your chance to explain why you were wrong and I was right again... oil 80.00 per barrel.. gold sets all time hight today at around 1175.00..... give it up dude.. you don't have a clue.
A prudent man foresees the difficulties ahead and prepares for them; the simpleton goes blindly on and suffers the consequences. Proverbs 22:3
Matthew 10:34 Think not that I am come to
send peace on earth: I came not to send peace,
but a sword.
A prudent man foresees the difficulties ahead and prepares for them; the simpleton goes blindly on and suffers the consequences. Proverbs 22:3
Matthew 10:34 Think not that I am come to
send peace on earth: I came not to send peace,
but a sword.
also oil corrected down to
also oil corrected down to 35.00 per barrel.. it has now gained 35.00 to the 70 mark.. so much for deflation.
A prudent man foresees the difficulties ahead and prepares for them; the simpleton goes blindly on and suffers the consequences. Proverbs 22:3
A prudent man foresees the difficulties ahead and prepares for them; the simpleton goes blindly on and suffers the consequences. Proverbs 22:3
Matthew 10:34 Think not that I am come to
send peace on earth: I came not to send peace,
but a sword.
you love to put words in
you love to put words in peoples mouths.... I presented articles that talked about the things you are claiming I said.. now as far as predictions.. where did you say interest rates were going to be last fall/winter? where are they now? now go look at your gold set for a fall post.. gold was at 640 then.. where is it today?? now with this post.. the dollar was at .79/.80.... where is it right now? 76.40... so who is wrong and who's right... lmao. what you fail to see is 2 or 3 years into the future.
If I were you . I would go back and read everything Ted Butler has said about silver... the Chinese are now telling their people to buy.. that will put huge pressure on the supplies that exist which are about 1/6 of an ounce for every humanbeing on the planet.. only 1 ounce of gold for every
person on the face of the earth.. now lets revisit what China said about defaulting on the derivatives.. What they said is.. if the derivative was sold to them and full truth or disclosure about the derivative product was not told to them at the time it was sold, then they have the right to not make good on that derivative.. China is the largest or one of the largest shorts on silver.. they know what is coming.. now they are trying to wiggle out.. the shorts are going to be caught and those who listened and bought physical silver will be RICH.....stay tuned my uninformed friend.. stay tuned.
A prudent man foresees the difficulties ahead and prepares for them; the simpleton goes blindly on and suffers the consequences. Proverbs 22:3
A prudent man foresees the difficulties ahead and prepares for them; the simpleton goes blindly on and suffers the consequences. Proverbs 22:3
Matthew 10:34 Think not that I am come to
send peace on earth: I came not to send peace,
but a sword.
Rresurrect This Post in 2 Months
This guy is probably right. I followed Jim Sinclairs advice last week and bought gold when it was 944 an oz. What an idiot I was.
I brought it back just for
I brought it back just for you Dude!
A prudent man foresees the difficulties ahead and prepares for them; the simpleton goes blindly on and suffers the consequences. Proverbs 22:3
Matthew 10:34 Think not that I am come to
send peace on earth: I came not to send peace,
but a sword.
A prudent man foresees the difficulties ahead and prepares for them; the simpleton goes blindly on and suffers the consequences. Proverbs 22:3
Matthew 10:34 Think not that I am come to
send peace on earth: I came not to send peace,
but a sword.
I certainly hope you are
I certainly hope you are being sarcastic given today's price action.
current spot price $980.60 and climbing.
Ta,
More Proof I am a GoldBug Idiot
I also took Jim Sinclairs Advice and bought when gold was at 400 500 600 700 and 800 as well. You would think that I would learn by now.
lmao.... and prechter was
lmao.... and prechter was telling everyone it was going to 125.00....
A prudent man foresees the difficulties ahead and prepares for them; the simpleton goes blindly on and suffers the consequences. Proverbs 22:3
Matthew 10:34 Think not that I am come to
send peace on earth: I came not to send peace,
but a sword.
So maybe it will go to $2,000 first and then go back down to
$125.
If the banks finally collapse and all checking and savings accounts get wiped out, what will people buy gold with. If someone wants to sell it to get federal reserve notes, then maybe it will only bring $125 since the supply of gold will then be large in to the then newly deflated money supply.
I am being facetious, but this is quite complex and we have all known for some time that eventually the inflation bubble would burst. All inflations eventually end in deflation, even the extreme ones like Weimar Germany. So we will see if this is the end of this long running inflation bubble, or just a setback on the way to yet one more expansion. Just when everyone thinks that we will have hyper inflation, maybe we will not; isn't the crowd usually wrong?
With the idiots in power, the outcome is uncertain.
that is your fatal flaw...
that is your fatal flaw... GOLD becomes money again like it always has been except....... what you buy for 10000.00 now will cost a 1 ounce gold coin. why would anyone want frn?
A prudent man foresees the difficulties ahead and prepares for them; the simpleton goes blindly on and suffers the consequences. Proverbs 22:3
Matthew 10:34 Think not that I am come to
send peace on earth: I came not to send peace,
but a sword.
The reason that people would want FRN's is that is what
is the medium of exchange now, and as long at it remains so, they will be in demand for that purpose.
How many places can you use gold or silver coins to make purchases?
And if you use gold or silver coins to trade to someone else for goods and services, the IRS says you have a taxable transaction measured by the difference between the value of the goods and services you receive, and what you originally paid for the coins.
So as long as the government sets the rules, the characteristic of gold or silver as money will be null and void.
And if you understand Gresham's law, bad money drives good money out of circulation, so people will hoard gold and silver and spend FRN's.
Henry says.. And if you use
Henry says..
And if you use gold or silver coins to trade to someone else for goods and services, the IRS says you have a taxable transaction measured by the difference between the value of the goods and services you receive, and what you originally paid for the coins.
the Irs can't even keep up with what illegal cash transactions take place ..
how will they do it with coins?
So as long as the government sets the rules, the characteristic of gold or silver as money will be null and void.
A prudent man foresees the difficulties ahead and prepares for them; the simpleton goes blindly on and suffers the consequences. Proverbs 22:3
A prudent man foresees the difficulties ahead and prepares for them; the simpleton goes blindly on and suffers the consequences. Proverbs 22:3
Matthew 10:34 Think not that I am come to
send peace on earth: I came not to send peace,
but a sword.
that medium of exchange can
that medium of exchange can change over night.. a frn is paper with a corrupt government promise.. have you been reading the headlines the last few days? China calling for new world currency etc? its only a matter of time.. I have a crisp reichsbanknote.. dated 19th of January 1922. serial number 2p.065168 ... what do you think this peice of paper buys me now? who accepts it? you said an frn is money.. well this german frn is money where can I take this 10,000.00 note and buy anything with it?.. when those people started "hoarding" gold and silver it was to late.. that german frn also did not buy them squat... what is the saying.. a day late and a dollar short? do you understand what I am trying to say?
A prudent man foresees the difficulties ahead and prepares for them; the simpleton goes blindly on and suffers the consequences. Proverbs 22:3
A prudent man foresees the difficulties ahead and prepares for them; the simpleton goes blindly on and suffers the consequences. Proverbs 22:3
Matthew 10:34 Think not that I am come to
send peace on earth: I came not to send peace,
but a sword.
If inflation always ends in
If inflation always ends in deflation, then does that mean we ought to be investing in some Zimbabwe currency?
Good for you!
It seems like every month or two we hear about some dire prediction or end of days scenario. It's nothing but fear mongering.
When we feed our faith, our fear starves to death!
********************
It is good and proper to respect the U.S. flag, perpetuated with the blood of American heroes. It is a fatal mistake not to recognize those who wrap themselves in the same flag to cover up their crimes against the American people.
~ Sherman H. Skolnick
*****
Liberty, like Love, is Tolerant
oh the FEARMONGERING"....
oh the FEARMONGERING".... you do not even know what the word means.
A prudent man foresees the difficulties ahead and prepares for them; the simpleton goes blindly on and suffers the consequences. Proverbs 22:3
Matthew 10:34 Think not that I am come to
send peace on earth: I came not to send peace,
but a sword.
hello everyone...
i'm a silver fear monger.
( {; >{|) }
Interesting read by Antal Fekete on gold backwardation
and the implications for the dollar.
http://www.goldstandardinstitute.com/html/remobilize.html
Other than his adherence to
Other than his adherence to the Real Bills Doctrine, Fekete is always an interesting read. The last time he saw sincere backwardation in Gold (Dec 2007) the price shot up $120 over the next six weeks.
Ta,
.
.
Why I take Mish with a beer. "Peter Schiff Was Wrong"
January 25, 2009
Peter Schiff Was Wrong
There are numerous YouTube videos, articles, and references to Peter Schiff being "right" rapidly circulating the globe. While Schiff was indeed correct about the US imploding, most of the praise heaped on Schiff is simply unwarranted, and I can prove it.
First, let's start with a look at the claim being made. Peter Schiff concludes many of his articles, books, etc. with the following statement.
Mr. Schiff is one of the few non-biased investment advisors (not committed solely to the short side of the market) to have correctly called the current bear market before it began and to have positioned his clients accordingly.
Highlight in red is mine.
I would like to see some proof of that statement. Specifically I would like to see the average returns posted by EuroPacific clients for 2008.
I have talked with many who claim they have invested with Schiff and are down anywhere from 40% to 70% in 2008. There are many other such claims on the internet. They are entirely believable for the simple reason Schiff's investment thesis was flat out wrong.
I have an actual portfolio statement from one of Schiff's clients at the end to discuss, for now let's discuss the main points of Schiff's thesis.
Schiff's Overall Thesis
* US Equity Markets Will Crash.
* US Dollar Will Go To Zero (Hyperinflation).
* Decoupling (The rest of the world would be immune to a US slowdown.
* Buy foreign equities and commodities and hold them with no exit strategy.
More:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/01/peter-sch...
And, when Mish is actually
And, when Mish is actually right about deflation I'll believe something he says. He might be one of the most obnoxious people sympathetic to this movement. To call Jim Sinclair a 'blogger' is really funny, or hubris, I'm not really sure.
I'll believe Sinclair over Shedlock every day of the week. Unlike Mish, Sinclair's actually made money trading/investing/running a clearinghouse and doesn't need to make money with his website. Mish is a blow-hard who's been at this game for a very short period of time. He regularly goes after the good people in this business to make a name for himself and bump up his ad revenues (ie. his attack on Peter Schiff).
I also think he fundamentally cannot tell the difference between the price of food and the price of a house and how those markets are not directly comparable vis a vis money flow.
Frankly, I just think he's an obnoxious jackass... but that's not really much of an argument.
Ta,
zero hedge
You may not have to wait long. Today's post at zerohedge.com also expects lower stock and commodity prices, symptoms of deflation.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/hello-september
"China's equity markets are back in bear mode, down over 20% from their August highs and down almost 6% overnight as I write this post. China led American equity markets on the bear front in 07/08 and again for this rally (Shanghai's low was placed in November 08, S&P's in March 09).
This bodes very poorly for equities (and commodities) going into fall".
UPDATE.... 11/23/09
UPDATE.... 11/23/09 SEEMS zerohedge was wrong too... lol!
A prudent man foresees the difficulties ahead and prepares for them; the simpleton goes blindly on and suffers the consequences. Proverbs 22:3
Matthew 10:34 Think not that I am come to
send peace on earth: I came not to send peace,
but a sword.
A prudent man foresees the difficulties ahead and prepares for them; the simpleton goes blindly on and suffers the consequences. Proverbs 22:3
Matthew 10:34 Think not that I am come to
send peace on earth: I came not to send peace,
but a sword.
My response was a trap.
My response was a trap. Deflation is a contraction of the money supply not falling prices. I don't see anything that says that the supply of money is contracting. The AMB has been flat, but volatile of late, bouncing between 1600 and 1800 billion dollars, but this is after Bernanke doubled it in a month.
Inflation of the type we are talking about is one borne of distrust of a currency and, by extension, its issuing government. Has anyone (including Mish) read anything from anyone connected with this administration that would lead them to believe that they will pursue policies which will increase our confidence in their stewardship of the US Dollar?
I know, the silence is deafening. Therefore, being bearing on gold is silly. Mish and Karl Denninger do not understand that loss of purchasing power through cheap credit is not a contraction of the money supply. It is a contraction of potential money. Not money itself. Meanwhile, money is being created constantly through QE to keep the governments running, the banks 'capitalized' and our creditors interest payments up to date.
A good question to ask is the one that Bob Murphy of LRC keeps asking.... Why is it that Bernanke stuffed the banks full of reserves and is paying interest on those excess reserves held with the FED if he publicly wants them to lend the money into the economy?
Maybe because he really doesn't? And is trying to further consolidate the banking industry by propping up the politically-connected zombies while the FDIC asks the tax-payers to take the loss while they scoop up the good assets from the smaller banks which go 'bust' every Friday afternoon. You know, the same way they consolidated the banking industry in the last Great Depression.
Ta,
An indication of what is going on with the money supply:
Try this M3 rate of growth chart is you want an indication of what is going on with a broad measure of money. The growth rate is collapsing, not expanding.
http://www.nowandfutures.com/key_stats.html
Plus, if you look at M1 and M2 which did take jumps in response to the doubling of the AMB last autumn, the rates of growth did not jump to anything that was historically abnormal. And just think that what M1 and M2 growth did occur was in comparison to numbers a year before which had not been juked up by a huge increase in AMB (Sept., 2008 compared to Sept., 2007 for example). When Sept., 2009 is compared to Sept., 2008 I bet the rate of growth falls significantly because both of these numbers will be juked up by the huge increase in AMB. Isn't it the rate of growth in money supply (the inflation rate) that is important, and won't M1 and M2 start to look like the already collapsing rate of growth shown by M3?
Banks are using much more strict lending policies. How many people have had credit card's either canceled or credit limits reduced? How many loans are not being made to businesses? (I just read an article about the decrease in oil exploration and development for want of bank financing, for example.)
I think the economy is in for a major contraction. Matt Simmons, an investment banker in the oil industry, says that we will have 1/4 to 1/3 less oil in 5 to 7 years from today as a result of continual depletion of existing fields and failure to bring on line new fields to replace them. Mexico for example, hit peak flow in 2005 and is dropping rapidly (25% to 30% annual rate of decrease in their major field) so that in 3 years they will not be exporting to the US and will be in social chaos, and so will we as Mexicans invade us and as we can't run our economy for want of oil to fuel it.
It may be that as a result of the significant contraction in things to buy (supply) without a matching contraction in money supply that prices rise, but one must also factor in velocity of money, and that looks to be moving toward the freeze stage. Fear makes people reduce debt, and hold on to more money (saving).
My bet that as long as gold is available as an outlet, general price levels are more likely to fall than rise. Of course if the government outlaws gold, or bypasses the FED and prints money directly to spend (in lieu of borrowing it) then prices could explode. But neither of these have happened yet.
and today's news of major
and today's news of major oil finds in the Gulf of Mexico destroy the Peak Oil guys.
As to the growth rates of M1 and M2, that has been covered by the excess reserves held with the FED. Of course, we've had a contraction of credit and once the contraction is over (and looks to be so) the only thing left is to quantitatively ease more money into the system to keep the markets liquid. The money still exists. Just because the velocity of it has slowed down, does not mean the money doesn't exist.
Inflation of the type we're facing will come with a collapse of confidence of the US banking system and the Government. When that decoupling happens, what happens to the velocity of money as people will do anything to get rid of their dollars?
Don't think it's coming? Then buy treasuries.
Ta,
What is the significance of BP's oil find in the Gulf of Mexico.
BP estimates that the find could produce 650,000 barrels per day within the next 15 years. The oil does not just appear at the maximum flow rate overnight. More wells must be drilled to develop this field. This is why the production from an oil field over its life follows a bell curve.
World oil production is currently running 72,000,000 barrels per day.
This find is could not even increase world production by 1% and it will take 15 years to get to that 650,000 barrels per day. And each of the wells to develop this field must be drilled to 35,000 feet, a distance equivalent to the altitude that most commercial jets use. These wells are unbelievably expensive to drill.
So this field is meaningless. It is just hype to help people avoid facing the reality of less oil at increasing costs.
If you want to compare this find to a the depletion of the largest Mexican oil field in the Gulf of Mexico note that it was producing 2,200,000 barrels per day in 2005, and has dropped to 900,000 barrels per day now. So the loss from Mexico's Gulf of Mexico field in four years is double what can be added over the next 15 years from the BP find.
So, high oil prices are a
So, high oil prices are a symptom of price deflation?
Nice. A harbinger of monetary deflation? How? Not credit deflation... monetary deflation.
The peak oil guys are interesting in that I agree that the current infrastructure is out of date and the fields are depleting. We've reached peak oil production at these prices. Agreed. We have not, however, run out of oil to drill for. Far from it. This find is an example of what will come online as the price of oil increases.
Do you think this may be why Sinclair's analysis that the Chinese have been converting their dollar reserves to oil and commodity resources around the world is important to understanding why they are going to be the driver of the world's currency going forward? They are the net creditor, we are the debtor. they are securing their future, we are spending ours.
All of this makes the policies of our current administration suicidal. Oil will not be replaced by anything anytime soon. Solar and Wind will never generate the kind of electricity to run the plating shop I work in no less a big manufacturing facility. So, our economy will tank under high oil prices, but the money will still be floating around... with politicians addicted to printing money to buy favors. Hrm... Sounds like price inflation to me.
High oil prices = high food prices.
Inflationary depression.
Ta,
The only one you trapped is yourself.
First of all I stated that the forecast at ZeroHedge of declining stock and commodity prices was one of the "symptoms" of deflation ( not the cause).
Secondly, you contradict yourself by saying deflation is only a is a contraction of the money supply. Deflation as it relates to TSI means a contraction in the total supply of money and credit.
By your own admission the FED loaned (credit) the major banks money to expand consumer credit ( money supply). But the banks did not loan the money to consumers (expand the money supply). Instead the banks have hoarded the money for future losses ( commercial real estate and more home foreclosures) and purchased insolvent banks at pennies on the dollar. On this, you are correct. However you only make the deflation argument stronger because all the money that went to the banks was never distributed back into the economy (expanding the money supply).
The short term liquidity from government spending that has entered the economy has caused a fool's rally in both stocks and commodities. Public companies were able to show short term profits because of cutting labor, lower energy, and lower transportation costs. Now the ball is back in the consumers court. Consumers are saving at the highest rate is almost 50 years(slowing down the velocity of money). And lastly the FED is very close to a liquidity trap with interest rates at near zero. The bottom line, prepare for deflation but don't be afraid of it.
Deflation is good for the freedom movement.
From: http://blog.mises.org/archives/008796.asp
Deflation is not inherently bad, and that it is therefore far from being obvious that a wise monetary policy should seek to prevent it, or dampen its effects, at any price. Deflation creates a great number of losers, and many of these losers are perfectly innocent people who have just not been wise enough to anticipate the event. But deflation also creates many winners, and it also punishes many "political entrepreneurs" who had thrived on their intimate connections to those who control the production of fiat money.
Deflation puts a break--at the very least a temporary break--on the further concentration and consolidation of power in the hands of the federal government and in particular in the executive branch. It dampens the growth of the welfare state, if it does not lead to its outright implosion. In short, deflation is at least potentially a great liberating force. It not only brings the inflated monetary system back to rock bottom, it brings the entire society back in touch with the real world, because it destroys the economic basis of the social engineers, spin doctors, and brain washers.
I disagree with the
I disagree with the zerohedge/Mish/Karl Denninger/Prechter position on credit contraction equalling commodity and stock price contraction. Stocks? sure. If they are in industries where the structure of production is most sensitive to manipulations by the FED, then yes, they will contract. Housing, cars, finance.... etc. Commodities, though, are sensitive to an overall expansion of the monetary base as that's where the money will flow first after the correction takes place, the structure of production begins to return to normal and rational calculation of future investments begins again.
Which money supply matters the most vis a vis price inflation? I'm with Gary North (and the historical record) that the AMB (Adj. Monetary Base) is the closest correlative to price inflation. When the FED increases the AMB, price inflation ensues. It may take time, but it will come.
The liquidity trap argument has never come to pass. Not once. The monetary base has slowed down at times but never seriously contracted. Even during the Great Depression. What will happen is a lack of faith in the dollar and the US Government... that is definitely on the horizon. The USG will not stop spending. The banks will have to start lending those reserves or they will go broke and the FED will have to provide money to all of them. Prepare for inflation because that is the only way out of the situation. There will be price deflation certain sectors and the CPI may go down or stay flat, but food, energy and commodities will go up as the dollar continues to get printed into oblivion. With all that you see around you do you believe we will have economic and political stability in the coming few months? years? What is a fiat currency other than the share price of the common stock of the government which prints it?
Deflation predictors have their heads in a potty if they think the politicians and bankers will wake up and save them before they destroy everything. Daft in the extreme.
BTW, I never said that deflation was bad for anyone. But I did say that we've had unrelenting inflation of the money supply and therefore we will have price inflation. I'd love for the FED to persue deflationary policies, but when have they ever done so outside of Volcker literally saving the dollar reserve standard in 1979-1982? The FED's mission is to inflate and skim the profits of said inflation.
So, no, duh. Price inflation bad, price deflation good. I believe in a gold standard and 100% reserve banking. I understand that in a free market with a sound currency prices tend downwards and it is the greatest engine of growth the human species can aspire to.
We don't have that.
What we have is a cartel of people that want a world currency, and complete obedience to the money-printing cartel. They will sacrifice the dollar on the altar of 'capitalism' to get what they want. Believe Bob Prechter at your own peril. Mises and Rothbard were right and hyper-inflation is coming, unfortunately.
And, Mish is a moron. With pretty charts.
Ta,
when you can call interest
when you can call interest rates I will then listen to you.. didn't you also post a thread about gold ready to take a dive? gold up 17.90 to 975.10..
hmmmmm I think that whatever you say is going to happen goes in the opposite direction. Now , don't get me wrong, but I am hoping that the price does tumble along with silver... I will have about 200k at Christmas time to buy even more! hopefully you are right on the price of metals tumbling!
A prudent man foresees the difficulties ahead and prepares for them; the simpleton goes blindly on and suffers the consequences. Proverbs 22:3
Matthew 10:34 Think not that I am come to
send peace on earth: I came not to send peace,
but a sword.
hmmm at 11:19 mountain
hmmm at 11:19 mountain time.. gold now up 21.00 to 978.00 silver up .33 to 15.35..... whole lot of "deflation' going on I see.. when will you people finally realize that Ron Paul is right.. Inflationary Depression is what we will have..
A prudent man foresees the difficulties ahead and prepares for them; the simpleton goes blindly on and suffers the consequences. Proverbs 22:3
Matthew 10:34 Think not that I am come to
send peace on earth: I came not to send peace,
but a sword.
Look at these charts...
.. of the major commodity metals and tell me if you think we are in a deflationary phase for commodities.
http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/zinc_historical.html
http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/aluminum_historical.html
http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/copper_historical.html
http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/lead_historical.html
http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/nickel_historical.html
As for the prices of homes, cars, strip malls, nail salons and Yachts I will gladly concede that those markets are in a deflationary spiral.
Maybe, just maybe, something other than the desires of the hollowed out middle class in the US is driving the prices of commodities as priced in US Dollars. We've had the bursting of the commodity bubble which formed at the end of the Greenspan Inflation and which popped during the first 18 months of Bernanke's term as Fed Chair. Now, it's something different.
Ta,
I agree....
I agree....
A prudent man foresees the difficulties ahead and prepares for them; the simpleton goes blindly on and suffers the consequences. Proverbs 22:3
Matthew 10:34 Think not that I am come to
send peace on earth: I came not to send peace,
but a sword.
That was it? (Inside joke.)
That was it?
(Inside joke.)
Another nail in the dollars coffin. It's coming alright.
In an event that will inevitably be downplayed by the U.S. media spinmeisters (CNBC, Wall Street, the Obama Administration), the Democratic Party of Japan overwhelmingly took control of the Japanese Government in elections this weekend. Why do we care, you ask? Take a look at this statement by Masaharu Nakagawa, the chief finance spokesman in the DPJ:
the nation should consider shifting its $1 trillion of foreign reserves away from the dollar and buying International Monetary Fund bonds. “In the medium to long term, we need to do what we can to avoid the risk of currency losses or economic turbulence that could result if the dollar were to swing,” Masaharu Nakagawa, the shadow finance minister in the Democratic Party of Japan, said in an interview in Tokyo on July 9. “Many countries are starting to diversify their reserves.”
http://truthingold.blogspot.com/2009/08/another-nail-in-doll...
A DPJ-led Japan Will Start Unloading Dollars
This would be the wrong move
This would be the wrong move at the wrong time anyway.. that move has passed.
Good people do Good deeds
and are no respecter of person
see to your liberty
IMF bonds don't exist
IMF bonds don't exist, at least not yet. And unless Japan wants to have an equal balance of trade( not a surplus) with the US, how does Masaharu Nakagawa expect to be paid for Japan's trade surplus with the US ?
If Masaharu Nakagawa is willing to risk a $1 trillion of foreign reserves in an experimental program, I doubt he will be the shadow finance minister in the Democratic Party of Japan for very long.
Think logically for a minute. How many political statements before an election turn into financial realities? Nakagawa may have bought a trillion dollars in votes for his party with his statements, but I will bet Japan will not buy more than a couple hundred billion in SDRs in the near future.
lmfao.... rotff..... will
lmfao.... rotff..... will you get anything right??
China may buy up to 50 bln dlr in IMF bonds: report
China's ICBC to buy 70 pct of BEA's Canadian arm
The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), the country's largest lender by total assets, has announced a deal to acquire 70 percent of Bank of East Asia's Canadian unit for 73 million dollars. Bank of East Asia (BEA) will have the option to sell the remaining 30 percent stake to ICBC one year after the transaction is completed, the Chinese bank said in a statement posted on its website Wednesday. Separately, BEA will buy from ICBC 75 percent of ICEA, a joint venture between the two banks, for 48 million dollars, therefore making it a wholly owned subsidiary of the Hong Kong lender, according to the statement. "The acquisition of 70-percent interest in BEA Canada will enable ICBC to establish its banking business and customer base in Canada, which will provide a strong platform to further expand our businesses and network across North America," ICBC chairman Jiang Jianqing said in the statement. "At the same time, the sale of ICEA will help streamline our organisational structure and business integration in Hong Kong by allowing full resource dedication on our Hong Kong investment banking business," he said. The deals are pending approval from regulators in China, Hong Kong and Canada, the statement added. Beijing-based ICBC has been active in its overseas acquisitions since it purchased controlling stakes in Indonesia's Halim Bank in December 2006 and Macau's Seng Heng Bank in August 2007. Last year, it acquired a 20-percent stake in South Africa's Standard Bank, the largest lender in Africa. State media reported last month that ICBC was eyeing more foreign targets, including troubled US banks, and could make more acquisitions later this year.
by Staff Writers
Beijing (AFP) June 5, 2009
China said Friday it could invest up to 50 billion dollars in the International Monetary Fund's first-ever bonds, state media reported, in yet another sign of the nation's growing financial muscle.
"If the IMF bonds meet our requirements in terms of safety and return on investment, we will actively consider buying up to 50 billion dollars of bonds," an unnamed official said, according to the Xinhua news agency.
"China has consistently worked to further the Fund's attempts to boost its financing via the market," said the official from China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange.
The 185-nation IMF is struggling to provide financing to countries in trouble amid the global financial and economic crisis.
It has been working to issue its very first bonds, and major developing economies such as Brazil, Russia, India and China -- known collectively as the BRIC countries -- are seen as potential buyers.
The IMF said last week that Russia intended to buy up to 10 billion dollars in the multilateral institution's bonds.
China's forex reserves are the largest in the world and currently stand at about 1.9 trillion dollars.
"China may actually have wanted to buy even more but the IMF did not necessarily want China to buy more at this stage," said Chen Xingdong, chief China economist with BNP Paribas in Beijing.
"Whether you like it or not, it's difficult to change the structure of investments for its massive forex reserves in short term. There are not many options better than the US Treasuries, but IMF debt is a good alternative."
It had been rumoured for several months that China could make a major contribution to the IMF.
In April, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown told reporters that China had pledged 40 billion dollars to international financial institutions, Xinhua reported earlier.
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/China_may_buy_up_to_50_bln...
Russia announced Wednesday that it plans to sell some of its $140 billion in treasury bonds in order to invest $10 billion in the new imf bond. China said it plans to buy up to $50 billion worth of the new bonds. India and Brazil also said they will buy imf bonds
http://www.thetrumpet.com/?q=6249.4698.0.0
A prudent man foresees the difficulties ahead and prepares for them; the simpleton goes blindly on and suffers the consequences. Proverbs 22:3
Matthew 10:34 Think not that I am come to
send peace on earth: I came not to send peace,
but a sword.
I keep telling you guys..
I keep telling you guys.. Would you want to loose American buying power ? Right now it's worth more than gold.
This IS the only reason the FED keeps going.
Good people do Good deeds
and are no respecter of person
see to your liberty
american buying power? we
american buying power? we have been losing purchasing power since 1913.... what cost 7 dollars in 1913 noe cost 93.00... american buying power you have to be kidding!
A prudent man foresees the difficulties ahead and prepares for them; the simpleton goes blindly on and suffers the consequences. Proverbs 22:3
Matthew 10:34 Think not that I am come to
send peace on earth: I came not to send peace,
but a sword.