
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: Dollar hegemony for another century
Submitted by Michael Nystrom on Mon, 10/26/2009 - 00:49
in
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard | October 21st, 2009
Telegraph UK
Let me stick my neck out.
The dollar will still be the world’s dominant reserve currency in 2030, sharing a degree of leadership in uneasy condominium with the Chinese yuan. It will then regain much of its hegemonic status as the 21st century unfolds. It may indeed end the century even stronger than it was at the start.
The aging crisis in Asia — and indeed the outright demographic implosion in Japan and China, not to mention China’s water crisis — will soon be obvious to everybody. Talk of Oriental supremacy will start to sound overblown at first, and then preposterous.
Japan is about to go bankrupt. It is on the cusp of a fiscal crisis that will change perceptions of Asia dramatically. The IMF says gross public debt will reach 218pc of GDP this year. This is compounding very fast. It will be 246pc in 2014.
The Hatoyama government is spending as if there is no tomorrow. It plans to issue ¥50 trillion or $550bn in fresh bonds. I have no idea when this will spiral out of control. It could take another two or three years. It could start next week. Yes, I know that Japan has been borrowing merrily at ever lower rates for 20 years without the sky falling. The 10-year yield is 1.3pc. What happens when it rises to global levels of 3pc to 4pc? People made the same sort of arguments about the global boom before it suddenly tipped over.
This blog does not attempt market timing, nor does it offer investment advice. But I am absolutely certain that pundits consigning the dollar to its death have missed an even more dramatic currency and debt story in Japan. The yen will top ¥200 to the dollar before this is over. Jim O’Neill from Goldman Sachs has already begun to hint at this.
















IMF economic hit men.
.
We can no longer afford the interest on our debt.
http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=114144
Grrrr
Just when I wanted the whole damn thin to come apart at the seams.
"In the land of the blind, the one eyed man is king."
All tyranny needs to gain a foothold is for people of good conscience to remain silent. Thomas Jefferson
This guy is outa his freakin' mind
100 years! lol
I find this article really creepy...
and a bunch of hogwash. The US Government is not going to suddenly use some common sense and quit spending. Who is he working for?
I wouldn't hold my breath
I wouldn't hold my breath Ambrose Pritchard..... I wouldn't hold my breath...
A prudent man foresees the difficulties ahead and prepares for them; the simpleton goes blindly on and suffers the consequences. Proverbs 22:3
"Mischief springs from the power which the monied interest derives from a paper currency which they are able
A prudent man foresees the difficulties ahead and prepares for them; the simpleton goes blindly on and suffers the consequences. Proverbs 22:3
Matthew 10:34 Think not that I am come to
send peace on earth: I came not to send peace,
but a sword.
Look at how much money a
Look at how much money a Republican congress spent in the past decade. Look at how much a Democratic congress has spent in the past few years. Extremely large amounts of mostly printed money. On top of that who knows how money the Fed Reserve has given to other governments, countries, and others. In the next few years I have a feeling the congress will spend more money and the federal reserve will continue increasing the money supply. Since the inception of the federal reserve the dollar has decreased in value by 95-98%. Does Evan-Pritchard really think the value of the dollar will turn around and stop its near-century decline. The fed may take out a few billion here and there, but they will never take out TRILLIONS that have been thrown into the market place. The debt-ceiling barrier will be raised and the dollar will continue its fall.
Also, the dollar is not the only currency that will have trouble in the coming future. The author discusses the Yen and its predicted downfall. That may be true, however, the dollar will fall as well. A weak yen and weak dollar does not equal a strong dollar. I believe that central banks that keep their currency under control in terms of the money supply and interest rates will be the worlds' reserve currencies in the future. Just to name a few: Singapore dollar, Brazilian Real, South African Rand, Swiss Frank, and Austrailian and New Zealand dollars.
And lastly, pay attention to this: " Jim O’Neill from Goldman Sachs has already begun to hint at this." Goldman Sachs? Are we really going to listen to those criminals?
Interesting perspective, only time will tell.
RAND PAUL CARDS!
www.CardsForLiberty.com
Dominant ...
compared to what?
Paper currency will make nice toilet paper, soon.
UK Debt Slave sums it up nicely
in the follow up comments to the original article.
Additionally, anyone who thinks that ANY developed nation will have a physical currency in 2030, (as opposed to electronic), is an idiot. I don't care if they refer to it as a dollar, regional dollar, world dollar or wampum. It will be a computer entry on your chip. The best argument for keeping the dollar, in any form, is that they want you to be BROKE. They don't want you to have a strong currency. So, long live the worthless dollar.
The whole idea is to get control
With the dollar, they don't have the control. They have just passed out tons of dollars to their friends. So if they crash the dollar, what happens to the friends. Either they let them know so that they get out of it, or they do a fair exchange. If they did a fair exchange, no one would argue with it. We would all feel relieved. This is not good, because we would be giving up freedom in the exchange. If they are just going to another fiat money, then there is no point in leaving the dollar. If they are going to virtual cash, cashless society, then it makes sense to do it so that they gain control and they should do it at a fair rate of exchange. They seem to be crashing the dollar so that they won't have to exchange quite so fairly, but this is hurting the people they have given all the money to.
Thank you, Michael Nystron!
As much as our country is deteriorating, it is nice to actually hear some posiitve perspective. Seriously, being a part of the liberty movement has some down sides to it and that is the fact that we are constantly bombarded with the ugly and hurtful truth. That really stinks some times and to think that China will be the leader of the freeworld, really really scares me. Thanks for this article, because some times we need a little "hope and change"... LOL!
Ron Paul 2012
Ron Paul 2012
The documentary, Demographic Winter ...
is an eye opener and a mind blower. It's a must see to understand our current dire situation.
This article is right about Japan and China. Japan experienced recession earlier than most other developed countries because it didn't have a baby boom after WWII. Thus, with the me generation, abortion, and it's basically pagan culture, Japan's population never recovered from WWII casualties, then it peaked and began to decline in the early 1990s ... it can't recover from it's demographic woes and, economic planning notwithstanding, there's no end in sight to the decline. The country is simply dying.
Russia is trying to pay women to have children ... but it's not working.
China, on the other hand, had plenty of people (sans those 70+ millions murdered by the illustrious Mao, whom we actually helped) until Henry Kissinger's plan ... the one child policy ... took effect. At first, people were taxed if they had more than one child. Quickly, that morphed into forced abortions and sterilizations. Factor in the Chinese cultural penchant for wanting a male heir, mostly female children were aborted. Result: lots of fellows now have no mates, so the Chinese population will drop by way more than half and actually age faster than the US population.
Now, the US population is presently holding its own but only because of Mexican IMMIGRATION ... legal, illegal, whatever. Now you know why they won't close the borders ... it would be immediate economic suicide as opposed to the controlled type they have in mind for us.
Western Europe is dying, Eastern Europe is dying first. Mexico is being descimated by its young people emigrating to the US.
As the demographers state in the documentary, Prosperity happens with rising populations and depression is inevitable with falling populations.
Since the elites have been busy creating overpopulation hysteria and culling the worldwide population one way or another ... through wars, famines, family planning, etc. ... which they plan to reduce by up to 90%, we're all in for one slow painful death.
The whole reason for the present rising population figures is that older people are living longer. Births are declining fast. The two lines charted create an "X". Somewhere around the middle of the century (assuming they allow older folk to live out their natural lives, which I doubt) the population numbers will fall off a cliff.
Abortion, overpopulation, "death with dignity" euthanasia, chemtrails in the skies, fluoride in the water, GMO foods, poison food additives, pharmaceuticals, vaccines, government "health" care ... not a pretty picture. This society, due to its selfish desires to live the "good" life, has swallowed the NWO poison. They not only swallowed it, they became addicted to it. You can't turn most people around anymore. Truth doesn't matter so long as they can live out their infantile fantasy lifestyle.
While I don't share in the doomsday mentality portrayed in "Demographic Winter," (because it's obvious that the participants want to save the current global economic system), I think humanity is headed to a more humane, community oriented, family oriented and God centered way of life. And, the good news is that there should be plenty of hard work for everyone! I'm game!
I wouldn't spend any time worrying about the dollar. I expect it to be collapsed within two years. In the long run, we may be back to trading wampum. If people are honest, any currency will work. If people are crooked, no currency is safe, not gold or silver.
i appreciate what . . .
it's hard to be awake; it's easier to dream--
you have to say. For me this is powerfully sad; I have lived in Asia. I saw it, and it's heartbreaking.
Interestingly enough, for me as a Christian, I do know that Christians in some Asian countries have more children. One could make some interesting conclusions from that.
But I don't just have Christian friends in Asia, and all people matter.
I've heard of this documentary and want to watch it. Other 'tools' have been used. The feminization of men and the masculinzation of women and the postponement of marriage through educational enticements and professional advancement are also to blame. That is all part of the same 'picture', but it's a little more specific.
Japan is especially sad.
The MSM persecuted post-Ceacescu Romania for not allowing abortion and tried to prevent Americans from adopting Romanian orphans, but there are thousands upon thousands of Romanian 'orphans' living in America; THAT Eastern European nation may decline, but 'her' children will go on--
ha, ha, joke on the MSM--
:(
I share your vision for a more Godly future. Let's just hope there are some Asians left. As for African descendancy, family planning clinics have done a pretty good job of genocide in America, and AIDS planning has hurt the population in Africa, where wars (how many planned by U.S. military, etc.) haven't--
another sad and sadder story--but some children survive and come here . . .
The big "K"; I hear more evil about him all the time; he will get his--
nasty, bad man--
was he behind African genocide as well?
I wouldn't doubt it--
I remember seeing him in the 60s on the news and knowing then that something was 'wrong' with him--
it's hard to be awake; it's easier to dream--
You are correct ...
One of the secular think tank demographers at the very end of the documentary ... after noting that serious religious people ... Christians, Jews and Moslems ... are all still having larger families, came to the obvious conclusion that only certain types of people will be dying off (the irreligious ones who buy the overpopulation hype)!
When they're gone, the average IQ of the world will probably shoot up!
Most of those other "tools" used to take humanity off tract were funded by the Rockefellers. And, the sexual identity of most younger people is non-existent. They wouldn't know how to be males or females if their lives depended on it. They've never seen it modeled for them at home. Now we have to suffer "metro-sexuals" whatever the heck they are! I have my suspicions though.
excellent post
demographics is indeed a wild card
thank you.
I think it's more like the KEY to our economic problems
If you google "Demographic Winter" you'll find a few clips from the documentary, but you'll see a lot more ... like German governments bulldozing whole neighborhoods of apartments and replanting the areas to go back to nature. There are no people to fill these housing units.
In Italy, there are ghost towns all over the place.
We have been taken for fools by the elites.
The Grocer's Son, a French independent film--
it's hard to be awake; it's easier to dream--
shows this; the French countryside is also very elderly.
it's hard to be awake; it's easier to dream--
And, according to the documentary, Demographic Winter, ...
... some sections of France (where people are actually having two kids) are the envy of the Germans who are bulldozing housing units on an ongoing basis to keep them from becoming a blight.
The producers of "DW" did another movie recently called, "Demographic Bomb." They used much of the same material but took it in a different direction. This one included the eminently arrogant Paul Erlich, author of the "Population Bomb," who is still drinking his own Kool-Aid.
Not one dastardly prediction he made in the book (1968) ever came true. Yet the population control elite think of it as their bible. Stupidity, stupidity! They kill the people to save the planet. They are obviously the darlings of the international elite (for now anyway).
I follow Ambrose as I read through the telegraph.
Sometimes he hits on something of importance, and looking at all sides of an issue should be done.
As long as the elites are in control, and they have dollars and/or are paid in dollars, the dollar will remain solvent. When the day comes when they are positioned out of dollars, then the dollar will be very unceremoniously untethered from any support.
They are not yet done with the dollar as a useful currency. That the dollar with still be around in 2030, maybe pushing the issue a bit too far into the future. Anything is possible, especially when they control all of the world's currencies and the precious metals market. They can do whatever they choose.
Michael, thanks for posting a totally
contrarian viewpoint to stretch our minds here at the DP. Very interesting article, and the comment thread that followed it. The world is so complex, we all, like the blind men in the parable, suffer the disadvantage of seeing a limited part of the whole big elephant.